AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5 units):

Mike Weir to win 12/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, BetInternet, Victor Chandler and Paddy Power
What a difference a warm putter makes! In the Mercedes Championship, he was ranked 14th (of 30) in putting average and finished 24th; in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic, he ranked 60th and finished 41st; and last week he ranked 18th and finished 5th. Back to just using his putter on the greens, he looks competitive again and stands a decent chance of winning this week. He has finished in the top-10 in three of the last four years and with no inclement weather forecast for this week, his class should show through.

Jerry Kelly to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Kelly is another who has been struggling with his putting. In his two starts of the year so far he has been ranked 60th and 61st in putting average, yet has still managed to finish 5th and 30th. The rest of his game is in impressive shape and it will only take a small improvement in his putting for him to be a serious challenger this week. He was a selection for the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic as he does have the right temperament for these pro-ams and that has also been shown by his two top-10 finishes here in the last four four years. Decent odds against a relatively weak field.

Kirk Triplett to finish in the top-five 14/1 @ SkyBet
Last week's missed cut was reminiscent of his horrible last round in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. After putting himself in 12th position after the 1st round, he lost control of his putter in the 2nd round (36 putts; 2.08 putting average) and missed the cut by a single shot. So this is therefore a third leap of faith with someone who has been struggling with their putter. He has two top-10 finishes to his name this year and was in prime position last week after the 1st round, so his putting has been good even though his confidence with it has been shaky. As long as that stays intact, these odds on a place-only finish will look very large.
 

Trampled Underfoot

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Really like this one.........

2u Pampling 60-1 win
2u Pampling 11-1 top5

Have some doubles in the other thread.

GL :D
 

sports student

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72 hole:

Weir +105 over Mickelson (bowmans)
Lehman -105 over Couples (olympic)
Petrovic -116 over Rollins (pinnacle)
Pampling -107 over K Sutherland (pinnacle)

good luck
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Nice smooth transfer on site Stan--no glitches whatsoever:thumb: good job.

Looking hard at the Aussie myself T.U. as well as the fat-boy.

Bitching bout 5 dimes may have been productive-back to 1/5 odds:)
 

scrub

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Match-ups

Lehman over Couples -105 105 units oly

To Win

Herron 44-1 10 units
O'meara 80-1 10 units
Lehman 60-1 10 units


Good Luck to All. What a bad field this week .
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Rod Pampling to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Centrebet
Baddeley remains on the 'to oppose list' as a 15th place and a missed cut in his two starts this year are not noteworthy, plus he has only played this course once and that was under very different condition in the 2000 U.S. Open - he missed the cut. Pampling has been 32nd and 10th in the last two years and in the top-15 in the last two weeks, so he should be a clear favourite in this match.

Fred Couples to beat Matt Gogel -111 @ BetandWin [3 units]
Gogel won this event two years ago, but missed the cut last year and in both of his starts this year. His form may pick up on his return to Pebble Beach, but Couples can boast a 8-1-0 h2h record against him over the past 12 months and can also boast a fine record in pro-am events.

Vijay Singh to beat Phil Mickelson -158 @ Pinnacle
Mickelson's improved resolve following a difficult personal time last year is encouraging to see for all golf fans, but he still showed last week that he still has himself to beat when in contention. No such worries over Singh whose tireless work on the practice ground is now paying off. He has finished ahead of Mickelson in each of the last five AT&T Pebble Beach pro-ams (plus the 2000 U.S. Open) and is worthy of the favourite title.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Rory Sabbatini -118 @ Expekt
With a season record of 25th (of 30), withdrawn after the first round and a missed cut in three starts, it is very easy to oppose Sabbatini. It is also encouraging to oppose him with a player coming off a top-10 finish, who plays well in home State of California and is a regular competitor (and even winner) of the non-Tour Pebble Beach event held each year in November.
 
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lal2000

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Outrights ( 1 unit e.w.)

A Baddeley - 125-1 @ Bet Direct
R Damron - 300-1 @ Sky Bet
K J Choi - 66-1 @ Sky Bet
P Stankowski - 125-1 @ Tote ( 1/5 odds 1st 5)
J M Olzabal - 125-1 @ Sporting Odds
M O'Meara - 80-1 @ Sky Bet

Also like Calcavecchia, Leggatt, Jones & Parnevik for this, but the six above are my selections this week.

Good Luck!
 

sports student

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1st round:

Singh -136 over Mickelson (pinnacle)

going with Stan here, especially catching something that happens rarely-the line moving in a better direction after Stan bets. :)


Update: this is a 1st round bet that I bet in error, but hanging with it and rooting it home (since I have no choice)
 
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IE

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50 M. Gogel -133

51 D. Paulson +123

investment : 51 D. Paulson +123 (1 Unit)
==========

52 K.J. Choi -125

53 J. Byrd +115

investment: 53 J. Byrd +115 (1 Unit)
==========

54 J. Kelly -173

55 C. Smith +163

investment: 55 C. Smith +163 (1 Unit)
===========

68 C. Pavin -113

69 W. Austin +103

investment: 69 W. Austin +103 (1 Unit)
===========

84 M. Weir -190

85 C. Barlow +176

investment: 85 C. Barlow +176 (1 Unit)
 

Stanley

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welcome to the golf forum, IE :thumb:

Adding (1.5 units):

Jesper Parnevik to beat Mathias Gronberg -167 @ NordicBet
Parnevik put together an impressive run of form at the end of last season and has followed it with just as impressive a run at the start of this season - 15th in Sony Open and 5th in the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic. Not good enough to get back into the Ryder Cup team, but more than a match for the PGA Tour rookie Gronberg who has not played this course before, finished 62nd in only start this year (Bob Hope Chrysler Classic) and has a 0-4-0 h2h record against his compatriot on the PGA Tour.
 

Another Steve

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2004 Pebble Beach Pro AM

2004 Pebble Beach Pro AM

Mike Weir WINS PEBBLE BEACH PRO +12.00
Mike Weir OV/Phil Mickelson -1.10

Going with a Hot hand and the cold club. Think Philly is already wanting a break. Believe the better lefty wins this week.

Also, love to CoatTail the man.
 

lostinamerica

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OUTRIGHTS:

Phil Mickelson(10/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Still rates as my choice among the short priced favorites in a top heavy field. I would likely feel quite differently if the Hope victory didn't remove one of the several albatrosses he's been carrying around his neck. Being on or close to the lead for his last eight rounds will catch up to him in the near future, but in his current vein I think anything that didn't kill him will make him stronger. Some thoughtful evaluation while taking stock of what fizzled in Phoenix, and a pairing with the amazing Mr. Singh, means I will be surprised if there is a stagnant start or a disappointing effort. On the other side of the coin, I'll believe that potato masher putter is the answer for Phil only if it somehow delivers for him in a major.

Charles Howell(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
When I look at all the elements that go into shining at this venue, I think this is close to a perfect opportunity and one that I'm sure CH3 embraces, but now he has to step up and make a bit of a statement.

Luke Donald(150/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
I saw a determined effort in Hawaii that was held back by some of the same uncertain driving that seemed a bugaboo last season (and if I recall correctly, a Saturday pairing with Els that just didn't bode well). Then I take a look at his performance pattern in prior seasons on the West Coast Swing, and factor in what I think is his potential, and I can't say no at this price.

GL
 

warner

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please let me know where i can bet the weir/barlow matchup this seems like the worst (best) matchup ive seen since duval was a regular go against
 

ChuckyTheGoat

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As a quick review, what did you golf gurus estimate the value of a half-stroke to be?

ie, going from pk to -0.5 is equal to approximately how many cents? 10 cents? Is that egregiously inaccurate?

Thanks, boys. Sink all your putts.
 

Stanley

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Chucky, I think pk is worth at least 25 cents.


In two-ball betting, the tie is usually offered at around 15/2 with players both +100 or one -125 and the other +125; see Bet365's lines for example.

The typical book percentage is therefore 100% + 11.8% (the percentage from the tie) = 111.8%

Pick'em on a 111.8% book is a fraction over -125.

So moving from pk to -0.5 (i.e. ties lose), you need to gain at least 25 cents by this example.
 

lal2000

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Some further spice for the weekend, partly inspiried by Stanleys selections in some of the other tournaments - a few Patent/Trebles at 0.25 units e.w. covering Pebble Beach, Royal Carib & Nashua.

Purtzer/Wessels/Pampling
Weir/Frost/Kite
Herron/Henning/Morgan
Quigley/Sterne/Kelly
Love/Fichardt/Fleischer
Nelson/Struver/O'Meara

Good luck!


LIA - I thing your selection of Luke Donald has a lot going for it - I've jumped on, but not posted.
 

hoss

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my 2 matches for the week:

Baddeley to beat Byrd
Fasth to beat Donald both 10/11

gl

hoss

:)
 
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