Auburn -7.5

[GolfGuruAU]

This is a GIFT. There are three reasons for this line being as low as it is.
1. Brandon Cox's first road game in his career.
2. Auburn's first road game of the year.
3. Auburn traditionally playing bad in Fayetteville.

I know Auburn as well as anyone, well maybe except for the coaching staff, and this team is progressively getting better. The defense is gelling. Auburn already leads the conference in scoring defense allowing only 9.4 ppg. Auburn is 2nd in yards per game, and 1st in passing yards allowed per game. Currently Auburn is 6th in rushing yards per game. This is where Auburn is dramatically improving. For some reason the linebackers started out slow this season. We returned all three starters plus Karibi Dede who is starting this year. With the improved linebacker play and the young defensive ends learning to contain the run Auburn will be able to stop the run of Arkansas. With the run game contained Arkansas will have zero offensive weapons.

Arkansas's defense is currently 11th in points per game, allowing 30.8 per game, and 11th in yards allowed per game. Arkansas could not stop a good high school team. With Auburn leading the SEC in points per game and 2nd in yards per game look for an offensive explosion by the Auburn offense.

Now back to my three points above. Brandon Cox is as poised as they come. Since his first start against Georgia Tech he has not thrown one interception. He has played better every game he has started. With Arkansas's horrid defense Brandon will be able to adjust to the 'not so friendly surroundings' and have a great game. Auburn's veteran receivers will be open all game long.(1$ to USC). As for Auburn playing their first road game, they are pumped. Auburn is coming off of an off week. All I have read and heard is how the team is ready to get back on the field. It also does not hurt that the entire team is 100 % healthy. As for Auburn playing bad in Fayetteville, it is a fluke. Not like it would matter anyway this year.

Arkansas is a team without an identity. This week against Auburn will not be a week to find it.

 

[AU2001]

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Very well said WDE! This line is off by 8-9 points!

 

[baby arm]

Auburn will kill Arkansas by 20+ points. I already have loaded up on the Tigers!

 

[MikeTampa]

I'm in there too.....what with my $25 bets and all, I'm sure to bankrupt my book. :em71:

 

[wareagle]

this one looks like a trap to me....

if it looks too good...which this one does....it probably isnt the right side....


i cant think of one reason to take arky in this game...which means i should probably take them....looks like to me this may be a ton closer than we all think with our orange and blue glasses on...

i could easily see us winning 24-17, 17-10, 28-24 ect....


GL this weekend

 

[AU2001]

I agree, but I will just have to lose this one. Can't think of a single reason to take Ark, and the only reason that I can think of to not take AU is the line is way too low. Hopefully, it is not a trap and Auburn will step up to the mic!

 

[HPark1]

]Arkansas's defense is currently 11th in points per game, allowing 30.8 per game, and 11th in yards allowed per game. Arkansas could not stop a good high school team. With Auburn leading the SEC in points per game and 2nd in yards per game look for an offensive explosion by the Auburn offense.

Take away that USC debacle and the numbers aren't so bad...

 

[AU2001]

Take away that USC debacle and the numbers aren't so bad...

Take away your dick, and you're a woman...

Can't take away the USC debacle because it happened.

 

[Dicky V]

I like Arkansas always a tough place to go into and come out with a big W.

 

[HPark1]

I don't think you understand correctly. Its important to know that one game greatly affected their average.

It was against the greatest offensive team in college (by far) at their stadium. The numbers in this game cannot be taken seriously as USC is a different beast compared to almost every other team.

When you only have 5 games an average can be skewed due to a single game which is basically not a true reflection of a team's real numbers, as in this case.


For instance if you have a team averaging 20 pts a game over 5 games and a prop is released with a team total of 18 you would initially think the Over would be a good play. However what if you looked at the game totals and it looked like this;

13, 14, 17, 7, 49

You'd notice only 1 of their games actually went over despite the lofty average.

Averages can be misleading if not looked upon closely...

 

[AU2001]

I like Arkansas always a tough place to go into and come out with a big W.

Vandy 28
Ark 24

 

[AU2001]

I don't think you understand correctly. Its important to know that one game greatly affected their average.

It was against the greatest offensive team in college (by far) at their stadium. The numbers in this game cannot be taken seriously as USC is a different beast compared to almost every other team.

When you only have 5 games an average can be skewed due to a single game which is basically not a true reflection of a team's real numbers, as in this case.


For instance if you have a team averaging 20 pts a game over 5 games and a prop is released with a team total of 18 you would initially think the Over would be a good play. However what if you looked at the game totals and it looked like this;

13, 14, 17, 7, 49

You'd notice only 1 of their games actually went over despite the lofty average.

Averages can be misleading if not looked upon closely...

It still doesn't change the fact that this team is defensively terrible, and they have lost by double-digits to the only two good teams they have played. Not to mention, an upset at home by Vandy. You can skew stats to say whatever you want them to say (ask SCOTT4USC), but when you take something out, or add something in, you get a skewed #.

So maybe I don't understand correctly. You're saying it is ok to include lopsided stats that favor Arkansas in games against hapless teams such as LA-Monroe and Missouri State, but when they get drilled on the road by USC, those stats in that game don't count???

Please enlighten me as to why and how that makes sense?

 

[HPark1]

AU,

not sure why you are being so confrontational.

And you seem to be putting words (letters shall we say!) in my mouth. I have not stated anywhere in my posts I support Arkansas or Auburn.

The original quote I commented on was the only point of emphasis I've made. I simply remembered USC putting up 70 and thought it helpful to remind that the point average for the Arkansas defense could be misleading. That was it.

 

[AU2001]

AU,

not sure why you are being so confrontational.

And you seem to be putting words (letters shall we say!) in my mouth. I have not stated anywhere in my posts I support Arkansas or Auburn.

The original quote I commented on was the only point of emphasis I've made. I simply remembered USC putting up 70 and thought it helpful to remind that the point average for the Arkansas defense could be misleading. That was it.

Not meaning to be confrontational, just trying to figure out what point you were trying to make.

 

[GolfGuruAU]

I hear where you guys are coming from but I am not a rookie when it comes to Auburn football. I also know the SEC very well and this game is as easy as it gets. Much like the Auburn SC game. Auburn is not getting the respect right now. We will see come October 22. Auburn by double digits. Mark it down.

 

[Woodson]

Consider for Arkansas:
Arkansas ranks third in the nation in rushing, averaging 286.4 yards per game, but is 113th in passing with 128.2 yards per contest ... Arkansas has great balance with the ground game, as four players average between 76.8 and 52.4 yards per game ...

Consider for Auburn:
Auburn's defense ranks second nationally in scoring defense (9.8) and seventh in total defense (256.2) and pass defense (148.6). The Tigers have not allowed a point in the first half of their last four games, outscoring their opponents 104-0.
Note: They are giving up on avg 3.2 rushing yards and a total of 107 rushing yards per game.

Auburn has converted an SEC-best 22-of-24 scoring chances in the red zone this season (91.7 percent), including 18 touchdowns. The Tigers have allowed just two touchdowns in nine opponents' red zone possessions.

Questions to Consider:

Who has Auburn played this year?
-No contenders. They beat themselves the first game as the team needed to gel still equals an L to Ga Tech.
Who has Arkansas played?
Arkansas ran for 244 total averaging 3.8 a carry against a strong USC team. Arkansas ran for 255 total rush yds averaging 5.9 a carry against a strong Alabama team!!!


To be successful Auburn has to shut their running game down early and score often in the first half. As this is a night game at Arkansas, if Auburn let's them hang around or go into the half up, it will be a close one.

Half time bet?
The team leading at halftime in nine of the last 10 meetings (only exception was a tied game in 2000 at the half) has won the game.
The Tigers are 14-0 over the past two seasons when leading at the half.

 

[GolfGuruAU]

Thanks for the contribution Woodson. Auburn by double digits.

 

[mw]

just trying to figure out what point you were trying to make

Are you kidding?

When someone points out that Arkansas is 11th in the SEC in points/yards allowed, you need to factor in the level of competition before drawing any conclusions from that fact.

That's his fricking point.

 

[AU2001]

Are you kidding?

When someone points out that Arkansas is 11th in the SEC in points/yards allowed, you need to factor in the level of competition before drawing any conclusions from that fact.

That's his fricking point.

You make even less sense than he did. I am well aware of who Arkansas has played. Miss. St., South Carolina, and Kentucky have played much tougher schedules than Arkansas so far, and at least 2 of them are ahead of the Hogs.

That's why I don't look at stats and trends, because people skew them to say whatever they want them to say. I have seen both of these teams play, and if Auburn doesn't win this game by double-digits, then it will be the worst defensive performance by an Auburn team ever. All Arkansas can do is run the football. Alabama played absolutely terrible against them and still won by double digits, even after giving up a terrible 80 yard TD run late in the game.

 

[thom24ad]

I love this game too

I love this game too

Great call I will take your Auburn expierence on this. Go Tigers!

Other games for you guys to look at are
Oklahoma -6 @ Kansas
This line is off after Texas kicking the Sooners ass. Kansas is sucks dick this year and last year and next year. The Sooners should win big on Saturday.
:toast: