Bank of America Colonial

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Davis Love to win 12/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Stan James, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetInternet
Assuming that his niggling back injury has cleared, Love looks to be far better value at 12/1 than Mickelson at 7/1. He has finished in the top-5 in three of his last five visits and started this season in similar form to last season's career-best year. His performances have since tailed off a little with his injury concerns, but these should be clear by now. There are few players his equal in this field.

Stewart Cink to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, UKBetting and Totalbet
Surprised to see Cink at such a high price after he won on his penultimate start. His record around Colonial is not really worthy of laying - he has played in each of the last seven Colonials, having a worst finish of 41st (1998) and a best finish of 2nd (2000). He has been in very good form this season and he does represent value at these odds, particularly if coming off the pace again in the final round.

Stephen Ames to win 50/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and BetInternet
Ames completes a trio of selections who tend to frustrate punters for more than reward them. But again, the odds are high enough to argue that there is value here. His course form is fairly average, making his last two cuts here, but he has never approached this event in this type of form. After a promising start to the year, he has moved up a level in the past two months to finish no worse than 13th in his last five starts and each of these has been against very strong fields. There is comparatively little value in the top-5 markets (8/1), so will just have to hope that he finally breaks his Tour duck. But at these odds, just another place finish would return a decent profit.

 

[veride]

EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 :

Steve Flesch --> 50/1 Victor Chandler
Tim Herron --> 80/1 Victor Chandler (Paddy Power, SkyBet)
Rory Sabbatini --> 100/1 Sportingbet

EW 1/5 1,2,3,4,5 :

Luke Donald --> 66/1 Ladbrokes
Jonathan Kaye --> 100/1 Ladbrokes

Place Only - First 5 :

Justin Leonard --> 7/1 SkyBet
Heath Slocum --> 25/1 Paddy Power
Harrison Frazar --> 28/1 SkyBet
Dennis Paulson --> 28/1 SkyBet

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a few early 72 holes
will continue fading Toms till the train stops
Trip -111 over Toms Cbet
Weir -111 over Toms B&W
Z Johnson -111 over Hamilton B&W
Funk +100 over Donald B&W

Still kicking myself passing on Herron last week as he always has several top 5's, and got shorted on 2 one stoke out at most generous place payoffs in Luiqin (Euro)and Delasin (bush) but did get one home for small profit on week.
11/05/2004 O/10101267/0000227
Single $20.00 Place Only - First 5
Marksaeng P @ 8/1 $180.00 $0.00

Got one I fancy this week but will wait till 5dimes comes out as I don't anticipate any adverse line movement.

 

[kjls04202]

Rowing in with Shigeki this week as I am following last weeks par 70 state form. 33/1 is the general price and I had hoped for a little more.
Also like Flesch, who I fancied last week, 50/1 at Laddies seems fair.
Jonathon Kaye also overpriced at same firm, cant see it lasting, though I am not sure he is suited by track. Against that he is an improving player.

 

[Another Steve]

Colonial Invitational Update

Colonial Invitational Update

Still waiting on Local lines to come up. Just wanted to offer any insite I may have, however meaningfull or less.

One word, HOT...It's going to be one of those years. Should be mid 80's with Heat index over 90. This is just me talking. Looks as if it could rain but all that will do is make it stuffy.

I have heard they will do the same as the nelson and not touch the rough. Course looks great. It was windy yesterday for the Pro-Am but saw some good shots but a lot of missed putts.

Did see two heathly Dancers, that made my day. First beer was at 10:30, always a treat.

Like the Ames pick, will be in my Play book. Watched Na at the Range, 20 years old, Damn.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stephen Ames to beat Geoff Ogilvy -120 @ William Hill
Ogilvy has certainly had a good season on the PGA Tour, but he still trails Ames 1-8-0 h2h this season. Add in two missed cuts in the last two years and a failure to finish ahead of Ames on this course on any occasion and this should be a straightforward win for Ames, even though Ogilvy should take him to the last round.

Kirk Triplett to beat Dudley Hart -114 @ Expekt
Having watched Dudley Hart completely fluff his playoff chance last week, I am very much against him this week. He must suffer a reaction from the way in which he hauled himself into contention and then blew it. Even without that pressure, there is plenty in Triplett's favour. He has finished ahead of Hart in every common tournament this year, even beating him in every round bar one. It is also remarkable that Triplett has beaten Hart in every 1st round they have both completed since the start of the 2003 season! Certainly can't see a fast start from Hart this week.

Zach Johnson to beat Todd Hamilton -111 @ BetandWin
Siding with the up-and-coming player against one whose win was simply a freak result. Hamilton has missed three of eight cuts since that win with a best finish of 21st; Johnson has a best finish of 11th and juts one missed cut since his win.

 

[veride]

matchups

Bet365 : Justin Leonard over Shigeki Maruyama --> -111
Betandwin : Luke Donald over Fred Funk --> -125
BetDirect : Tim Herron over John Huston --> -111
BlueSquare : Jonathan Kaye over Stephen Leaney --> -109
Centrebet : Luke Donald over Zach Johnson --> -108
Expekt : Tim Herron over Stephen Leaney --> -113
Five Dimes : Luke Donald over Duffy Waldorf --> -110
Ladbrokes : Rory Sabbatini over Luke Donald --> -111
Paddy Power : Stephen Ames over Kirk Triplett --> -111
Sportingbet : Geoff Ogilvy over Zach Johnson --> -111
Pinnacle : Rory Sabbatini over Briny Baird --> +106
SkyBet : Jeff Sluman over John Huston --> -109
Stan James : Jeff Sluman over Loren Roberts --> -111
Unibet : Stephen Ames over Jesper Parnevik ---> -136
Will Hill : Justin Leonard over Chad Campbell --> -111


tie not loss only in Centrebet, Expekt, Pinnacle and Unibet...

 

[lostinamerica]

My 1000th post - I hope it?s a profitable one.

Lots of dues paid since my first post on 10/14/01:?Things you find while looking for other things: this forum . . . I love information. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and I'd rather know all the angles . . . I bleed the Green and Gold of the Packers, and that will never change. Lots of opinions on that topic, but only a handful of wagers during the last twenty years- it would be disrespectful . . . That's a pretty good introduction . . .?

1000 posts later: ?A thousand thanks.? ~ A. Lincoln

PACKERS RULE!

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

OPENERS:

Was it common knowledge that while Lorena Ochoa was grit and guts while scaling the leaderboards on a 3-8-8-10-2-1 quest for her first win on tour, her brother was on his own quest to scale the real Mt. Everest?http://www.tennessean.com/sports/columnists/climer/archives/04/05/51442136.shtml That kind of information would be top drawer stuff in my book of capping golf.



OUTRIGHTS:

Shigeki Maruyama(33/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
My take starts with the way he smartly answered my questions in last week?s pairing with Mike Weir (Nissan revisited), was properly embellished on Sunday, and carries into this week with his fondness for American courses dripping with elements of classic design (where short hitters, experienced veterans, and distinguished shotmakers head the list of course specialists that have thrived in the small fields at Colonial). . . Evidence of a window offering a reprieve from his nagging shoulder and neck pain is a noteworthy ingredient in the recipe I?ve got concocted, and I hope my master chef has designs on flavoring the dish to perfection . . . I think he goes well this week, and the smiling assassin is a proven winner.

Jonathan Byrd(80/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Another player I had ticked for eyeing last week, and I was not at all surprised to see his good play, or the fits and starts as he looked to scale the leader board on Saturday, or a fine back nine on Sunday that held things together . . . His TV time showed great action in his swing and plenty of joy in his game, and streakiness is pretty prominent in his resume . . . I can?t keep track of what surgery it is that he?s on the mend from, but his mind is likely in a good place for his best stuff.

Justin Leonard(33/1) for 0.50* e.w @ Bet365
He?s in good hands with Butch Harmon. He?s capable of much when the lid comes off. He?s in Texas.

Jonathan Kaye and Scott Verplank are still in the picture as well, with Stephen Leaney and Stephen Ames next in line (how about one of those Sunday 63's that Colonial has been known to give up?).

GL

 

[kjls04202]

Congrats LIA. I always look forward to your posts as they are so well written and contain lots of nuggets as do most posts on this forum.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew @ ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)
Tanaka 150/1 @ Bet Direct
T Purdy 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
K Na 125/1 @ Sporting Odds
Toms 50/1 @ TotalBet
Leonard 40/1 @ TotalBet

Outrights (? unit ew @ 1/5 odds 1st 5 unless indicated)
Hart 80/1 @ Coral
Maruyama 66/1 @ Tote Bet Express (1.5 units)
Sluman 125/1 @ William Hill

Also interested in Kaye, Ames, Waldorf & Mediate.

Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1.5pts):

Mike Weir to beat David Toms -111 @ BetandWin
Toms has great course form, but it still very easy to oppose someone who has missed five of their last six cuts. Weir may not be in the best of form, but should need to make the cut to beat Toms, who appears to be still hampered by his injured hand.

 

[veride]

Leonard 100/1 @ Skybet

Do You mean "Lonard P 100/1" or "Leonard J 33/1" ?

 

[Another Steve]

Colonial Invitational Plays

Colonial Invitational Plays

Stephen Ames WINS COLONIAL INVI+50.00
Stephen Ames OV/Kirk Triplett-1.30
Have to CoatTail Stanley, love Ames here at 50-1. He has won me some money this year. Think his Game is right for this Track. With that, I will go against Trip, the price has moved since I made my Play.

Stewart Cink WINS COLONIAL INVI+33.00
Like Cink as a backup Straight.

Sergio Garcia OV/Phil Mickelson+1.25
Going with the Hot game, both our former Champs, hope Garcia is still wanting to Play after the win.

Bob Estes OV/Chris Riley-1? @-1.15
Like Estes, he always plays good here.

Watched a lot of Golf today. Troy Akiman is a 3 and Vince Gill is scratch, did not know that. Troy pumped it OB a couple of times. Going to be Hot and Windy. Number 4 is 252 YDs long, how tough is that. Joey was real sweaty. Gamez, Briny, Clark and Parnevik all birdied 13.

Stewart Cink OV/Davis Love III+1.30
Adding this Dog Play, Stewart and Davis should be closer than this Price. This could be a Beer play but like it with Cink.

6 AM, At the course. Done by 1:30.
Cigars, Margos, Golf and Girls after that.

GLTA

 

[Whalers Rule]

Frazar 125-1 e.w 5places

Place top five 0.5 each Paulson 25-1
Pavin 30-1
Brooks 100-1

Add top five Glen Day 45-1 10-10 cuts made here

 

[lal2000]

Veride

I owe you one - almost lost my ability to have a bet on Leonard. Checked back on the SkyBet site this morning and discovered they had voided my bet - incorrect odds. I had placed it over the phone when I'd seen the odds online. Their phone guy had confused Lonard & Leonard. They apologised and gave me a ?10 credit for my trouble.

So I've edited my post and am now on Leonard @ 40/1 with TotalBet. Thanks.

LT

 

[Another Steve]

Another Play

Another Play

Chad Campbell WINS COLONIAL INV+25.00

Woke up with one more Straight. Chad is from Lewisville and a great striker. He has made the last few cuts, barely, but just got a feeling about him. This only a .75 Play and bumbed up the Ames Play to 2 Units.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Stephen Leaney(100/1)(1st Round Leader) for 0.30* e.w. @ Bet365

MATCHUPS:

Funk(-113) over Sluman (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes
Maruyama(-105) over Perry (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Another Steve]

Friday @ the Colonial

Friday @ the Colonial

A few quickies:

NA WD due to a pulled muscle, I think it was the 9 on 3. He walked after that. Fluff was caddying for him, went from a 14 year old to a 20 year old. Things weren?t going well between them.

Thank God Garcia sticks it from the trees on 14.

Speaking of trees, heard more stories about having to punch out. Love this old course.

#9 hurt a lot of Players yesterday. Campbell hits water at 2 under and Phil drains a 5 ft for a bogey.

Still in all my Plays. Off to the course

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Some nice 20 mph winds projected next 2 days

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Jesper Parnevik(12/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
Everything I saw and heard shouted at me that Jesper would be there on Sunday, but I'll just single out one of the smaller but most critical pieces, the beautiful pace on his putts.

Haven't looked at any matchups yet.

GL