Bay Hill Invitational

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Davis Love to win 14/1 e.w. @ Victor Chandler
In the top-three in two of his last three visits to Bay Hill, in the top-six in each of his last five starts in Florida, including one win, and in the top-10 in four of five starts this year. Love is simply playing at or very close to the level that earned him last year's Player's Championship and made him an early season contender for Player of the Year. Shouldn't be ignored in this form.

Retief Goosen to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Goosen's stats are almost as impressive. He has finished in the top-10 in four of five strokeplay events this year, including 3rd in his only start in Florida this year, and he won the Chrysler Championship in Florida in November last year. His course is nowhere near as good, but in all his previous four visits he has finished higher up the leaderboard than the last time. If can continue to learn how to tame this course, he can certainly beat Tiger Woods.

Scott Verplank to finish in the top-five 10/1 @ SkyBet
Verplank is another who can boast both good recent form and good form in Florida. In his last tree starts in this State, he as finished 8th, 2nd and 2nd, while he has finished in the top-10 in five of his last six strokeplay events and was 20th in the other one. That is impressive consistency and while he is hardly a prolific winner on Tour, it does suggest that he may be value in the place-only market.

 

[veride]

from Victor Chandler EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 :

Stewart Cink --> 67/1
Aaron Baddeley --> 81/1
Jerry Kelly --> 81/1

...and my biggest Lee Janzen --> 126/1

...and of course Brad Faxon --> 81/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) ...in the morning was 101/1 and may still falling...

 

[pointspred fred]

Stanley...

Stanley...

I'm in a big time money fantasy golf league. I get to pick TWO "A" players for the week, and start one each day of the tourney. Once I pick them, I'm stuck with them for the week. I'm having a tough time between picking between Tiger, Els, Goosen, love 3rd and singh. Which two would you take? im leaning goosen and tiger but the others are gonna rip this course apart.

Also, which of the two golfers you pick should I start the first round?

Help?

PSF

 

[Stanley]

PSF, you have to take Tiger on this course, but it is a difficult choice for the 2nd player. If anything, I'd lean towards Vijay rather than Love or Els. I picked Goosen for the outrights as he represented good value at 22/1, but I don't think he's at the same level as the other players.

Morning tee-times seem to be rather important at Bay Hill. So unless the weather forecast is for some adverse weater in the morning, start with players who are teeing it off early on Thursday.

 

[matchmaker]

Hi Guys
One Outright play for me this week on:STUART APPLEBY
1 Unit E/W @ 50-1 [Generally available at 1/4 12345]

Hasnt played well here the last few seasons,but was 2nd in 1997.
That year like this he had won earlier,and his game particularly driving and iron striking look in good shape,and both are needed here to be A1.
With fellow Aussies Parry and Allenby already playing well the first couple weeks of the Florida Swing,Im reasonably hopeful that Appleby will join in the fun at Bay Hill
Good Luck

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

YTD: -22.45u

I'll go with two of Stanley's outrights. Lets see if my luck will change!!

Goosen 20 1u ew
Jacquelin 14 1u ew

Double 0.25u ew

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will throw up a few this week. Not lots of future for place wagers with all guns aboard this week and 5 spots available but will venture out with a couple Cink & Scott by @ 12/1 (top 5) @ Skybet. Rough trying to slide one in this field but @ these odds only have to hit one in 6 weeks to keep head above water which has been atainable to date.

Like a couple of 72 holes
These lines dropped initally @ WTTS
Ames -120 over Langer
Ames cost me last week but had been money maker prior.
Verplank -110 over Campbell
Verplank continues to treat me well with one place finish @ decent odds 2 back.
Flesch -115 over Couples @ ABC
Singh -110 over Els @ 365
Scott +105 over Jacobson @ Oly

one note of news as I was dissing Boyles for no place only opts last few weeks as I had thought they were discontinueing---but got some welcomed news

Wayne

Due to technical reasons we are unable to offer ?Place Only? betting on the website at the moment, If you wish to bet on this marked please call our fon-a-bet service and one of our operators will assist you,

The numbers are available on the home page of the website.

I apologise for any inconvenience caused,

Regards,

George Dooley

Internet Liability Manager

 

[gethman]

Very hard to oppose Tiger Woods in this tournament as he is gunning for his fifth straight victory at the course!! However, as ever, he represents little value, and looks a little vulnerable, given his poor driving accuracy stats, which has troubled him all season.

The course has distinctive Bermuda greens, so players who have fared well in the past on these greens should go well. The fairways are quite narrow which means you need to be a accurate driver, while putting will be crucial, especially on the par 5's, which represents the best birdie chances. Probably more vital is that players have a good pair of tee times, as the course gets windy in the afternoons which plays havoc with the scoring.

Vijay Singh, 12/1, SkyBet, 1.5 pt E/W

Kirk Triplett, 100/1, Tote, 0.5 pt E/W

Scott Verplank, 50/1, SkyBet, 0.5 pt E/W

Peter Lonard, 125/1, SkyBet, 0.5 pt E/W

 

[gethman]

Fredrik Jacobson to beat Thomas Bjorn, SkyBet, 5/6, 1 Point

Jacobson a regular on this tour these days, and doing very well at it too. Bjorn likely to use this as warm up for the PLyaers, but has missed the cut here twice, and overall PGA tour form not exactly eye catching.

Peter Lonard to beat Paul Casey, Stan James, 9/10, 2 Points

Lonard is a regular top 50 player on the PGA tour, and has a fine record at Bay Hill. Casey, although one of the UK's more promising golfers, has little experience on the PGA tour, and Lonard can boast a 5-0 head to head record on the tour.

 

[lostinamerica]

The early season theme of 2004 in both the U.S. and Europe of the top contenders and those on the fringes of contention doing an exceptional job of getting right back in contention after going close in their prior outing sure looks as though it has yet to run its course. And the Butch Harmon students continue to bring it, with Kevin Na being the latest.


OUTRIGHTS:

A couple of early ones by my slow-trigger standards:

Stephen Leaney(125/1 & 100/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes & Bet365
No respect at those prices.

Chad Campbell(40/1 & 33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes & Bet365
I think Chad is sitting on something good that is close to hatching. A pairing with Palmer brought initial hesitation, but I'll seize it as an extra angle that is far from neutral with respect to some potential for igniting the kind of effort that defines those times a player is meant to win from those times when it just ain't happening.

GL

*********************************************

May your neighbors respect you,
Troubles neglect you,
The angels protect you,
And Heaven accept you.

If you want to know what God thinks of money, just look at who He gives it to!

If you?re enough lucky to be Irish, you?re lucky enough!

 

[Whalers Rule]

Lehman 150-1 e.w
Dicky Pride place top 5 66-1
Jay williamson top 5 76-1

 

[lal2000]

Outrights ( ? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)

M Hensby 125-1 @ Skybet
A Baddeley 80-1 @ Skybet
R Allenby 40-1 @ Victor Chandler
H Frazer 125-1 @ Ladbrokes (1/5 odds 1st 5)
B Faxon 66-1 @ Sporting Odds
R Sabbatini 80-1 @ Sporting Odds
S Flesch 100-1 @ Sporting Odds

Also interested in Durant, Parry, Cink & Perks.

Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Robert Allenby to beat Sergio Garcia -111 @ Stan James [3pts]
Not necessarily expecting a poor week from Garcia, but he as neither regained the consistency and level of golf of a few years ago nor the level that Allenby is currently playing at. Allenby admitted to struggling with is game earlier in the season, but he grinds out results (four top-20s from five starts this year) and Garcia does not. Available as low as -150 elsewhere.
(also available at Aces, Olympic, Five Dimes, Pinnacle and Sirbet)

Retief Goosen to beat Sergio Garcia -169 @ Pinnacle
Allenby is at one level, but Goosen is certainly a level iger in world golf. These may be short odds, but Goosen is a real contender for this title and is another who grinds out top-20 finishes unlike the Spaniard.
(also available at Aces, Olympic, Sirbet and Five Dimes)

Adam Scott to beat Aaron Baddeley -137 @ SkyBet
Opposing Baddeley once again in matchups. He is not as consistent as Scott and while his form is improved over his 2003 injury-hit season, he has only one top-10 from seven starts this year compared to Scott's three from five.

Kirk Triplett to beat Aaron Baddeley +100 @ BetandWin [3pts]
Triplett's record is just as good: three top-10 finishes from five starts in 2004. He also finished 14th in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and it was only a second round 76 that saw him struggle in the FBR Open. They have had three common events this year and Triplett has finished higher in them all, just as he did on both the occasions that Baddeley played in this event.
(also available at Bet365)

Kirk Triplett to beat Rory Sabbatini -120 @ Aces
Can't argue with Sabbatini's suddenly improved form in the last five weeks, but he as played in this event twice and really struggled around Bay Hill each time, completing just three rounds of 74, 87 and 77. Does not augur well for this week.

Peter Lonard to beat Todd Hamilton -118 @ Expekt
Straightforward play of opposing the winner from the previous week if that win changed his life. Hamilton did birdie the last two holes to win the title, but he made hard work of the very easy 17th hole and it was only a career-shot on the 18th hole that delivered him victory. He had been throwing away the event all day long. Mentally drained, this should be a short week's work for Hamilton.

Duffy Waldorf to beat Scott Hoch -137 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [3pts]
One simple statistic for this play: over the past 12 months, Waldorf leads Hoch 6-0-0 h2h. That's enough for me!

Jeff Maggert to beat Ian Poulter +105 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
I don't understand this line. Poulter has never played in Florida, let alone at Bay Hill, while Maggert has been a regular here, making his last eight cuts on this course and finishing 2nd a couple of times in the process, just as he did in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month. Poulter is an extremely capable player, but mastering Bay Hill is a very tall order on ihs first visit. These two should be evenly matched, if not a slight advantage to Maggert.

 

[lal2000]

LIA - Interesting call on Leaney - just picked some of that up @ 150/1 at Sporting Odds. Fingers crossed.

LT

 

[lal2000]

A few multiples, all with SkyBet, with the first a definite nod to Stan.

Love/Grace Park/Jacquelin/Nelson
Sorenstam/Woods/M Campbell/Stadler
McNulty/Pak/Els/Jaidee

Good luck!

 

[Another Steve]

Bay Hill Plays

Bay Hill Plays

Retief Goosen WINS BAY HILL INV +20.00

Total CoatTail, I will get on track and it starts this week. The Goosen/Garcia Play is 2.00. May make it.

 

[Whalers Rule]

Noticed somebody has Dicky Pride at 1000-1 to win. Don't have an account there but wish I did. Not that he has any chance, but he is a member here and finished fifth in 1999. Showed some form last year, i think around the U.S. open. So i would think it was worth a shot.

 

[lal2000]

I realise it's too late to go official with these two but have added C Perks @ 250/1 and C Parry @ 150/1 - both on SkyBet - half unit ew.

Good luck!

 

[veride]

Bay Hill Invitational, 2nd round

Bay Hill Invitational, 2nd round

18:05 Aaron Baddeley better than Jeff Maggert and Skip Kendall --> 2.15 Expekt

 

[lostinamerica]

2ND ROUND:

Goosen(+138) over Perry/Lehman for 1* @ Bet365

Go Badds.

GL