Matchup plays (1 unit unless stated):
Robert Allenby to beat Adam Scott -110 @
SkyBet
Both have shown excellent form over the past five months or so, but will side with the more dependable Allenby who has finished in the top-35 in five of six starts in this event. Scott finished 68th two years ago and apart from his 11th place finish at the wide-open Heron Bay in that year, he has finishes of 68th, missed cut and 65th in Florida events.
Kenny Perry to beat Adam Scott -111 @
BetandWin,
Victor Chandler and
Ladbrokes
With six cuts made from seven visits to Bay Hill and very few cuts missed overall, Perry just looks the more consistent player who will finish at least mid-table on Sunday evening. Scott could finish anywhere, but further down the leaderboard appears more likely.
Stuart Appleby to beat Robert Gamez -115 @
WSEX
Neither have course records to boast about - Appleby has one top-50 finish in seven attempts while Gamez has one in his last ten - but at least they can both claim top-5 finishes on that solitary occasion that they did contend. Just feel that although Gamez has shown some form in the last couple of events, Appleby is still playing much better. He leads him 3-1-0 h2h this season and 10-2-0 over the past 12 months.
Justin Rose to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @
Bet365 and
SkyBet
Will repeat last week's match and hope that Baddeley doesn't sneak the tie on the final day again. Baddeley does have an advantage in that he has played the course before this week, though he did miss the cut in 2000, but I just think Rose is simply the better player and has shown he can win events on different continents. He will win on this Tour, but not just yet.
Jeff Sluman to beat Aaron Barber -137 @
Boyle [2 units]
The rookie Barber certainly caught some attention when he ended his run of four missed cuts with a 4th place finish in the Tucson Open. He has since made both his cuts, but has fallen down the leaderboard each week and this will be his first really big event. With no course experience, I can only see him failing to keep his form, so will side with Sluman who has secured four top-25 finishes this season and was 8th two years ago.
Darren Clarke to beat Robert Gamez -125 @
Easybets [2 units]
Clarke's form in this event is also forgettable, but he is simply the better player and particularly now that he is working hard on his game with Butch Harmon. He has beaten Gamez in both their joint events this season and in all five of their joint events in the past 12 months.
Tiger Woods to beat Ernie Els -175 @
Boyle [2 units]
Has Els peaked too early? He certainly looked tired and jaded when stumbling to lose the Dubai Desert Classic to Derksen, as he had done in his 1st round match in the Match Play against Tataurangi. This week will answer some questions, but I don't see him winning this event and he has played more than twice as many event as Woods this season and in four different continents. This matchup is as low as -300 and I'll certainly argue there is value in these odds.
