Bay Hill

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will venture out cautiously today. Looks like makings of classic trap with PM T-Storms projected.Could turn it to lower scores in pm with softer greens so will play just one am/pm and 2 with same tees.

Mattiace +105 over Huston @ $plays
Tee adv(am vs pm) plus Mattiace ranks 36th in scrambling a premier stat on these hard greens.

Clarke -115 vs Scott @ 5Dimes
Veteran should have nod on this tough track.

Perry +105 (- 1/2 stroke) over Garcia @ WSEX
Both playing in pm and Garcia will have to fire at pin and gamble in hopes of seeing Saturday---tough to do here.

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 2-5-1; -5.08 units

Allenby/Choi TIED (Push)
Gay/Ames LOST by 4
Garcia/Appleby LOST by 3
Beckman/Mattiace LOST by 5
Cejka/Kresge WON by 5
Woods/Els WON by 4
Perez/Gamez LOST by 4
Maruyama/Immelman LOST by 12

2nd round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Luke Donald to beat Aaron Baddeley -110 @ Sirbet
Jonathan Byrd to beat David Duval -117 @ Five Dimes
Ernie Els to beat Tiger Woods +158 @ Five Dimes [3 units]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

What a great call on Els Stan,win or lose. Is not this weather a bummer. Its the Tiger aziom. The optimum conditions will follow him each rd 1st 2 days every time and no wind projected in am.
I am looking at a conservative 4 to 5 stroke difference over pm rds thur compared to pm pairings fri.

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 1-1-1; -0.10 units

Donald/Baddeley LOST by 9
Byrd/Duval WON by 4
Els/Wood TIED (Push)

Mid-point update:

Allenby/Scott LOST by 1
Perry/Scott Leads by 7
Appleby/Gamez Trails by 4
Rose/Baddeley Trails by 7
Sluman/Barber WON by 6
Clarke/Gamez Trails by 1
Woods/Els Leads by 4

Hoch 66th
Garcia mc
Huston 25th

Not a great situation at the cut. An Els victory over Woods in the 2nd round would have helped, but a very strong finish from Woods denied the win. No plays for the 3rd round, so will look to turn this event around in the final round.

 

[Stanley]

4th round plays:

Stephen Ames to beat Pat Perez -115 @ Sirbet [2 units]
Dan Forsman to beat Pat Perez -112 @ Five Dimes
Jonathan Byrd to beat Aaron Baddeley -113 @ Five Dimes
Justin Rose to beat Tim Clark -108 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
Stephen Leaney to beat Ben Crane -125 @ Five Dimes
Steve Flesch to beat Jeff Maggert -117 @ Five Dimes
Jeff Sluman to beat Arron Oberholser -117 @ Five Dimes

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

at the cut
72 holes 1-1 2 pending props 1-1 2nd rd 2-1

72 holes
Allenby/Scott loss
Lonard/Garcia win
pending
Verplank/Scott 9 up
Rose/Badds 7 down

Props to miss cut
Daly loss
Garcia win

2nd rd
Mattiace/Huston loss
Perry/Garcia win
Clarke/Scott win

Outrights Campbell-Mediate-Herron all made cut but none contending.

4th rd
Els +170 over Woods @ Cascade
Hoping Woods puts it on cruise with 5 stroke lead

Forsman -112 over Perez
Forsman great closer ranking 4th in final rd scoring ave in 2002.
This year ranks 32nd (69.33) vs Perez 108th(71.2)

 

[lostinamerica]

The Sunday leaderboard will be popping within the hour. Opting for one big play and a boat load of small ones.

PARLAY Perry(-110) over Clarke WITH Rose(-123) over Clark WITH Els(+150) over Woods for 1* @ 7.65/1

GL

 

[Stanley]

4th round update: 3-4-0; -1.80 units

Ames/Perez LOST by 3
Forsman/Perez LOST by 5
Byrd/Baddeley LOST by 1
Rose/Clark WON by 1
Leaney/Crane LOST by 4
Flesch/Maggert WON by 6
Sluman/Oberholser WON by 3

Final update:

Matchups: 3-4-0; -0.85 units

Perry/Scott WON by 6
Appleby/Gamez LOST by 9
Rose/Baddeley LOST by 11
Clarke/Gamez LOST by 3
Woods/Els WON by 19

18-holes: 6-10-1; -6.98 units

Outrights: 0-3; -3.00 units

Hoch 79th
Huston 20th

Not a good week. Had Huston finished in the top-5 - he had been 4th after 54 holes - it would have saved the week, but apart from Bradley Dredge this has not been a good week for picking anything. Will bounce back next week!

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 41-19; +11.53 units
18-holes: 15-17; -5.99 units
Outrights: 7-25; +2.95 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 100-72; +11.70 units
18-holes: 21-20; -1.15 units
Outrights: 22-82; +0.08 units

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

finals remaining outrights 1-1 4th rd 0-2
remaining outrights
Verplank/Scott Win
Badds/Rose loss
4th rd
Els/Woods loss
Forsman/Perez loss
both destroyed

outrights Campbell-Mediate and Herron all celler dwellers

Matches week 5-6 +.27 units ytd 60-50 + 7.47 units
Outrights week - 3units ytd +28 units

Treaded lightly for this event but would have been prudent to skip all plays after rain hit mid 2nd rd. Changed course entirely and did not even watch much of it last 2 days as it seemed uneventful.Elements converted course where experiece should have weighed heavily to grip it and rip it layout.Lucky to come out of it as is.