Preview & outright plays:
The week after the TPC and the week before the Masters, it is a time to rest for many and that means that the field at the BellSouth is once again a little thin. With the Masters Committee having decided that winning a PGA Tour event was no longer a ticket to Augusta and with Sugarloaf being a physically-demand, hilly course, the absence is understandable. Yet, this will be the first time in over a month that the PGA Tour has been played on Bentgrass greens and with the wide-open fairways at Sugarloaf, this should be ideal preparation for next week. The Augusta National is only two hours' drive away and this could be a week for acclimatization to more humid weather, if the thunderstorms that are forecast can be avoided.
The event was moved forward six weeks to April two years and the effect was to favor the longer-hitters still further as the Zoysiagrass rough is still fairly dormant at this time of the year; length not accuracy will hold the advantage this week and next. With the abrupt change to a different type of grass on the greens, it has also been a mark of high-finishers here that they are good putters.
The event has been staged at the Greg Norman-designed Sugarloaf course since 1997 and in that time has won an increasing number of admirers. Though maybe none moreso than Stewart Cink who had a house built on this course two years ago. Another to note with a local connection is Scott Dunlap who is the local touring pro. Of note for Phil Mickelson is that the defending champion has never successfully defended the BellSouth Classic.
The three outright selections for this week are Davis Love, Stewart Cink and Mike Weir. In some ways, a weekend away from a tough course can be a decent break, especially if the tournament runs over into Monday because of bad weather. And as can be seen from the 'Round 1' table, Love shoots his lowest 1st round scores when coming off a missed cut! While the terrain may not suit his back, the course setup is perfect for his game. He is another with a local connection, residing at Sea Island, Georgia, and was even inducted into the Georgia Hall of Fame in Augusta in January this year. Has an excellent chance of making it two wins this year.
With a record of 5th, 2nd and 10th in the past three years, Cink is an almost automatic choice, particularly given his liking for the course. Of course, he missed the cut spectacularly last week, but like Love his game is more suited to this course and also like Love, as the 'Round 1' table shows, his 1st round scoring average is more than a full shot lower when coming off a missed cut. Not making the weekend hurts the pride of these players and they make amends! It may be a concern that he blew a winning chance in 1999, but he has won on Tour since then and is as good a prospect to win as to be placed.
Finally, Mike Weir had a poor Sunday/Monday to fall to 44th last week, but here he returns to a course on which he finished 5th last time out. Not the longest of hitters on Tour, but a very good putter, this week could signal a return to the form that had brought him three top-10 finishes in his previous four tournaments. Capable of winning, but a place finish is more likely.
Outright plays:
Davis Love to win 10/1 e.w. @
Sporting Odds
Stewart Cink to win 28/1 e.w. @
Sporting Odds
Mike Weir to win 28/1 e.w. @
Sporting Odds or
Surrey
