BellSouth Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to win 14/1 e.w. @ Totalbet
Going early because of the mass withdrawals (Singh, Campbell, Lonard, Monty and so on) and the fact that the prices will not be adjusted until the morning. It leaves Weir as the only player in this week's field to have won on the PGA Tour this year and he has won twice. In nine starts, his 27th place finish last week was his worst finish of the year and no-one in this field can compare with that. He has also finished in the top-5 at Sugarloaf twice in his last three visits, so should be a strong contender this week.

Stewart Cink to win 28/1 e.w. @ Bet365, BetInternet, Boyle and Totalbet
Definitely the home player - his house borders the 14th fairway - and his form on this course justified his decision to have his house built there. He missed the cut last year, but had finished in the top-10 in each of the previous four years. Currently in a rich vein of form that has netted him 2nd place in the Bay Hill Invitation and 6th place in the Tucson Classic, so should be confident this week. Many others will have their mind on Augusta next week, but this is an event that have Cink complete focus.

Bob Tway to finish in the top-five 8/1 @ SkyBet
In excellent form with top-5 finishes in his two events prior to last week and was in contention throughout at Sawgrass - he even outduelled his playing partner, Tiger Woods, in the late round for 15 holes. That could only have boosted his confidence coming into this week. Two top-5 finishes on this course in the last five years are also supportive. However, he hasn't won on Tour since the 1995 MCI Classic so the place-only option definitely looks the best option here.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Out here in Bama on golf trip so will not have much this week.
One outright maybe more at cut.
To place at Boyles Steve Flesch 10/1

 

[dawgball]

Will be attending the BellSouth Thursday and Sunday. Let me know if there is anyone in particular that you would like a recap on from Thursday's round.

Definitely will be watching Couples a little and Weir some too.

 

[kjls04202]

I really thought that John Rollins was a big price @ 100/1. Not really sure if he is long enough but he seems to be quietly coming to his form.

 

[Stanley]

Rollins was on my shortlist as well. Will be looking for matchups with him instead though

 

[milpalm]

Cink 28/1, agree with what Stan wrote.
Dimarco 22/1, giving him one more chance.
Pettersson 80/1, a runner-up already this year and the wide fairways should suit.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Steve Flesch to beat Briny Baird -125 @ BlueSq
Passed over Flesch for the outrights given his repeated failures to close out tournaments, but will side with him in the matchups. He can boast three top-10 finishes in five starts in this event and looked to be making his 2nd consecutive top-10 finish last week when 8th after 54 holes. He shot 79 in the final round, but his form is still good and as he is not playing in the Masters next week, this event should get his full focus. Will oppose Baird who has missed four of nine starts this year and two of three starts in this event (63rd last year).

Steve Flesch to beat Scott McCarron -111 @ William Hill, Ladbrokes and SIA
McCarron's record in this event is very impressive - two wins in six starts and a 4th place finish last year - but he is hopelessly out of form. He has four missed cuts and a 1st round Match Play exit in his last five events and has failed to break par in any of his last seven rounds. This week should see an improvement, but he has a lot to improve upon!

Steve Flesch to beat Pat Perez -150 @ Aces
Will take the consistent Flesch against a very hot-and-cold player. A top-10 finish and two missed cuts in his last three events is rather typical of Perez and having finished 50th last, this looks like being a cold week.

John Huston to beat Mark Calcavecchia -118 @ Expekt
No comparison between these two players on this course. Huston had three top-5 finishes from 1998 to 2000, while Calc has missed the cut twice and finished outside the top-50 on the other two occasions. Given comparable current form, this is a significant edge for Huston.

Bob Tway to beat Mark Calcavecchia -111 @ BetandWin, Ladbrokes, SIA, Boyle and Gamebookers
If Huston can beat Calc, then so should one of the outright selections. Tway has been in better form and can count two top-5 finishes in the last five years at Sugarloaf.

Jesper Parnevik to beat John Daly -118 @ Expekt
Could be a basement battle as both have missed at least as many cuts as made this year, but both can claim some success in this event. Daly won this event ten years ago on a different course, while Parnevik was 2nd last year. Indeed, three finishes inside the top-25 is a good record for the Swede so will side with him, plus he leads Daly 4-2-0 h2h over the past three months.

Dudley Hart to beat Corey Pavin -111 @ BetandWin, Paddy Power and Gamebookers
If this is a big-hitters course, then Pavin has no chance here and in three previous visits he has missed the cut twice and finished outside the top-50 on the other occasion. Hart did finish in the top-10 last year and has at least made seven of eight cuts this year.

John Rollins to beat Billy Mayfair -111 @ Ladbrokes and SIA
Apart from a 5th place finish in the Honda Classic, this has been a very poor season for Mayfair and it doesn't look to get any better this week. He has missed three of four cuts in this event and eight of his last ten cuts in Georgia itself. Will side the top-5 finisher from last year.

 

[milpalm]

Nordicbet have started pricing up golf. Don't know where they found their golf odds compiler but he makes the chap at Betandwin look good. Sadly they are win-only and you probably won't get much on.

These prices looked good to me:

Cink 75.00 !
Mickelson 12.50
Weir 25.00
Dimarco 30.00

 

[Stanley]

Thanks Milpalm

Do you know them? Are they solid?

There are some matchups that I like as well

 

[milpalm]

I know they're based in Costa Rica. The guy who runs it is very open about the way they run things and posts regularly on a Norwegian betting forum. They are quick with payments but are notorious for cutting limits. I've had an account with them a couple of years and have not experienced any problems.

 

[steved]

0.5 e/w on Dudley Hart at 125/1 Totalbet.

Playing better this year (according to him) and came seventh here last year. He does not mess around having one baby at a time, has triplets (none called Kirk...they would look silly in the hat as well...) that are 15 months old, no wonder he is playing better, to save going home at the weekend!

50/1 Stan James, 66/1 Skybet, so not just me....

 

[Stanley]

Adding (2 units):

Chris DiMarco to beat Carlos Franco -133 @ Easybets
There were some improved performances from Franco last month, but he is still on my opposable list as justified by rounds 75 and 76 in the final rounds of two of his last three events. DiMarco has played solidly the last two weeks, particularly after he opened with a 77 last week, and has two top-10 finishes in the last four years at Sugarloaf. Franco missed the cut on his only previous visit (1999) and opposed again.

FWIW Flesch over Perez has now opened at -135 @ Moneyplays!

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit):

Padraig Harrington to win 'Top European' 7/4 @ Bet365
Not much competition in this group. Parnevik did finish 2nd last year, but is not the player he was 12 months ago, Cejka and Pettersson haven't played the course before this week, while main players whose have played Sugarloaf - Fasth, Donald and Olazabal - are not in the same form as the Irishman. Harrington does have a history of following good weeks with more good weeks (though not winning) and should match his top-10 finish of last year. Others have him 5/4, which is more in line with my odds for this market.

 

[Stanley]

1st round plays (1 unit unless stated):

Angel Cabrera to beat Briny Baird -115 @ Five Dimes [3 units]
Steve Flesch to beat Pat Perez -148 @ Five Dimes
Phil Mickelson to beat Mike Weir -125 @ Five Dimes

 

[warner]

golf

golf

up 60 last week +630 for the year
mick 0 weir 130/100
dimarco 0 cink 135/100
flesch 0 perez 155/100
rollins 0 hart 55/50
fasth 0 calc 55/50

 

[bettingmad]

I couldn't believe that 75.00 Cink but it was there at Nordicbet!!! They also offer top 10 betting for you place only fanciers.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Yeah too good to be true. I made a very small wager on Cink at 50-1 and its already been canceled. Funded the account with a CC and get an email saying they have had problems with US fraud via CC so everything is canceled. No message anywhere stating US customers cannot use CCs.

Sounds to me like they are nervous about Cink.

 

[Stanley]

Cink has been taken off the board, so there is no doubt that they were worried about the price.

Let's hope they haven't learned their lesson too quickly

 

[lostinamerica]

I've been settled on a number of players since early in the week, but had too many others under consideration to give them all a proper look before tonight. And having something to say about what you are doing can make for a long night. But ninety minutes of pouting after the computer locks up makes for a long morning . . . I've been leaning toward a small bump in my stakes on outrights, but this week there were enough angles to justify a decision to instead go with two different tiers of outright selections . . . The level of consistency in player form at this Greg Norman designed TPC layout would stand out even if it was not following on the heels of Sawgrass and it's pronounced swings in course form for so many players. I'd say the pattern of consistency this week holds up OK across spectrums of high and lousy finishes at this event, and elite or journeyman players. Simply put, the final results from last year's Bell South reads very much like something you might expect. The big sized course clearly accounts for most of that consistency, and the unique juxtapositioning on the calendar of events and some discernible differences in the agendas of the players offers some additional hope of tracking the rhythm of a winner this week . . .

OUTRIGHTS:

(A) Bob Tway(33/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
(B) Mike Weir(12/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ 5dimes
(C) Stewart Cink(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365

Three excellent choices by Stanley - for all the reasons stated - to beat out a fair number of other choices at the top end of the market. Great stuff. I do believe Tway is tracking the destiny of a winner before too many moons in spite of his painfully balky putting, and some legs from his pairing with Woods and a void in his calendar during The Masters makes this one of his opportunities worth circling.

(D) Carl Pettersson(16.5/1 for Top 5) for 0.30* @ 5dimes
I was hoping and expecting to see him at 80/1 or better to win. I am obviously not alone in picturing Carl slinging and carving it around here with some proficiency. But NO WAY is he my choice as the first player to earn his maiden win on the Tour this year, so although I'll top off with a few dollars to win, I'll try to be a good capper and settle for the place option.

(E) Briny Baird(66/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
I had some volatile picks under consideration (Daly and Fasth gives you an idea), but I think Briny is doing the right things to be on task this week, and big sized courses have a comfotable niche in his track record

(F) Steve Flesch(40/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365
Odds that make me wince, but something feels OK about giving him the final slot.

MATCHUPS:

Harrington(-105) over Goosen (Tournament) for 1.5* @ 5dimes
I don't recall details from Phoenix, but Goosen has been untidy to the point of sloppy in every other event this year (european Tour included), and at least a quart low on passion as well, and I'll likely look to oppose him with another wager if he climbs into the fray.

Tway(+100) over Huston (Tournament) for 1* @ 5dimes

Pettersson(-135) over Sutherland for 1* @ Olympic

Still looking . . .

GL

 

[sports student]

Rollins +154 over Beem/Daly 1st round
Harrington -130 over Browne/Bates 1st round


5 dimes prop page