Bet the farm. . . Pac 10 GOY

[Nickelback]

My new system aside, I know this Arizona team and for them to only be giving a TD to Oregon is an absolute joke. Wildcats are having major problems. . . not just with their field goal team!

Oregon laying 7 for just a shitload of cash!!!



It hurts to bet against my team, but I can't resist in this situation. . . Arizona played bad enough to lose to North Texas, yet pulled out the win with a very lucky TD.

One more thought to ponder:

Oregon is 13-2 ATS their first Pac 10 game of the year. Arizona as a road dog is absolutely pathetic over the past several years despite the win against Utah.

 

[EARVIN]

Just thought I would add a little more fuel to the fire--Oregon is a beautiful choice IMO:

Arizona is 7-24-1 ats in their last 32 Pac 10 home games, including 0-10 ats their last 10, 1-11 ats at home versus an opponent with a W/L record over .500, 4-11 ats in their first conference home game and 3-8 ats their last 11 versus Oregon and 2-7 ats in the 2nd of back to back home games.

Oregon is 7-0 ats on road after a bye

These are simply trends and stats, not enough entirely to make a play on but the situation is great, the line is generous and the talent disparity and matchups appear in Oregon's favor as well. Usually I can find large trends that would validate an angle for both teams in this matchup but as of now every serious trend I can find is favoring Oregon. If anyone else see's something where arizona has an angle the information is appreciated. Thanks--

 

[Nickelback]

Thanks for the actual numbers Earvin. . . I knew they were out there and I appreciate your addition. I assume this line is going to take a nice little jump right out of the gate. . . may not even get Oregon only laying a TD, but I would take this all the way to 13.5 and feel comfortable with my play. Oregon just has too much firepower for Arizona and the fact that the Wildcats had trouble scoring against North Texas is very disturbing. . . as Arizona State proved against Stanford, you have to be able to score and score a ton in order to win Pac 10 games!

 

[Allnet]

Oregon should be straight in,IMO. GL. Pinnacle now 7?.

 

[bgold13]

OREGEON -7 WOW!!!!!!

 

[hellah10]

why is it so low?

 

[Nickelback]

hellah,

Oregon hasn't played anybody really. . . and they never play great until the conference season begins. . . Arizona is usually the exact opposite (although the Wisconsin loss and performance against North Texas can't really be considered great play).

I expect the conference trends to continue with Oregon having as easy of a time getting to QB Johnson as Wisconsin did. . . the Duck's secondary is a little suspect, but so was Wisconsin's! LOL

Side note: Clarence Farmer might be the best rusher in the Pac 10 if it wasn't for Arizona's offensive line. Incredible how they haven't given him any good holes the entire year except for the one run against Wisconsin. Johnson is also a very good QB, but there's only so much you can do without having time to sit in the pocket and air it out.

 

[hellah10]

ok....i`ll take oregon -7 (bought the hook)

 

[acehistr8]

Am I remembering the same game, AZ won or lost on some call where the head ref was an alum? Same game?

Oregon laying 7 here is a beaut

 

[bgold13]

Arizona running back Clarence Farmer expected not to play vs Oregon..get it now

 

[Nickelback]

Yes, Farmer not expected to play as well as Jolivette who WILL NOT play. Personally, I feel the more significant loss is CB Jolivette as Oregon will have a field day throwing the ball because Arizona will have to allow the receivers to catch the ball or interfere with them as they are not skilled enough to compete.

Bell will fill in for Farmer at running back and has done a decent job. . . very similar to Farmer. . . the real problem is the offensive line which is not allowing either running back the time of day.

Lots of resources of mine falling on this Oregon play. To the point that it will not kill me, but will hurt a little if Arizona somehow stays within the number. Personally, I feel a realistic outcome is Oregon winning by 21 or more. . . with the backdoor hitting at 14. . . tons of room with the number between 7 and 8 right now.

 

[buckeye fan]

hey guys.. while i see what all of you are saying i have a couple of questions to throw out there. First off, while zona has not played anyone, but wisco neither has oregon. Oregon has yet to play a road game, and i see this game as a possible trap. What does vegas know that we dont?? i mean everyone says this is to good to be true. I agree with u looks tempting but first road game for oregon, and they barely beat a pretty piss poor fresno team at home as they only won by 4?? i dont know what all of this adds up to so i was wondering what all of u thought. especially nickleback as u seem to have a lot of knowledge about arizona.

One other game i would like to point out that reminds me of this game, is Georgia +4, although they are getting points and oregon is not. #6 in the country getting 4.. seems absolutely ridiculous. I will probably stay away from both of these.

 

[Joe De]

My numbers show take Oregon up to 9points..great value on paper...I played N.Texas late game Saturday..by the numbers nad arizona is weak offensively....good luck

 

[Nickelback]

Buckeye,

Please read my posts above. . . Oregon typically plays conservative before the Pac 10 begins, then plays incredible once the season begins. . . Arizona is the exact opposite. The line doesn't look that fishy to me because of what you have said: Oregon hasn't played a quality team on the road and they haven't looked THAT impressive so far this year. . .but that's nothing new. Conference play is completely different where you have to have a potent offense to get anywhere and win games. Oregon has it while Arizona doesn't.

I do realize what you say about Oregon being rated so high in the polls, then only laying 7 to an unrated team coming off a terrible game against North Texas. . . smells a little fishy, but Arizona is completely off balance with key injuries. This is the real deal. . . Oregon could be only the 25th best team in the country right now and I'd still say they would win by double digits. The Georgia game may be a different story because of the team they are playing. Alabama is actually a good team with quality wins and a home field advantage. Arizona doesn't have a home field advantage.

 

[gjn23]

As an Arizona alum let me offer some insight:

Reasons to play Oregon:

everybody and their mother will be on Oregon and the spread should be 10 by kickoff.

All logical signs would point to a 45-20 type of blowout as UA defense can't stop anybody and cant get to the QB.

Expect Oregon to run or pass at will, whichever they decide to do.

Not much of a home crowd expected, maybe 45-50k???

12 UA players are listed as Out or Doubtful including Jolivette, Farmer, Briggs (3 of the 4 UA players who could play for other Pac-10 teams). Although Briggs will probably play.

UA punter quit the team and they struggle to punt, kick off and make field goals.

The UA has gotten wacked at home the last 2 years vs better teams, same situation applies here.

Lack of preparation and emotion last 2 weeks is a scary sign for UA.

Talent, speed heavily in favor of Oregon

Factors that lead one to the UA:

Home Dog
First road game for Oregon and Fife.
Johnson and Wade could eat up Oregon seconday (will he have time to throw however?)
Offense holding back vs NT??????
My pal anolther UA alum has Oregon and he loses at a 75% clip
Heat???

As you can see MOST reasonable analysis would lead to Oregon. UA was in this situation last year at home vs Oregon, Stanford and WSU and got wacked all three times.

Good luck in whatever you wager on, personally I'm waiting to see what the total is.

 

[Nickelback]

Glad to hear from a fellow alum. . .

Think all of your points are valid but I thought Johnson and Wade would eat up Wisconsin's secondary.. . the problem was the Offensive Line which hasn't gotten any better and certainly will not give Johnson enough time in the pocket like he needs to be effective. Got a buddy on the team (not a starter, but knows what's going on) that tells me Briggs will play, Jolivette is definitely out and Farmer is doubtful. He also told me something that will amaze those who saw the Wisconsin game:

Apparently, the emphasis the entire week before playing the Badgers was to wrap up when making tackles! Unbelieveable how they spent an entire week focusing on that aspect and looked as poor as they did defensively. I just don't get it. . . I think the team has heart, but unfortunately not enough talent to make Johnson, Wade, Jolivette, and most of all Farmer shine the way they should on a normal team.

The Cats will score some points, but they won't be able to stop the Oregon offense enough to stay in contention.

 

[Nickelback]

BTW:

If I have anything to do with it, the line will go far above 10 before kickoff

LOL

 

[pt1gard]

took this game LW

took this game LW

at -6.5 and thought it was nice # ... now if LV woulda kept it there or put it at 7, that woulda been more suspicious than 7.5, as U all know

I live in NW, have watched Dux play a couple games, they are fast as usual on O, but fresno had them in deep do-do ... I think if you actually love this game you should buy 1 pt NOW and feel safer ...

zona has struggled mightily on Off, tho NT ST is no slouch on D ...

looking for a 30-17 type win myself ...

gl, pt1gard

 

[Statman02]

I do pay attention to trends but I don't see anything that compelling in this game.......however I also watch for strength of schedule mismatches and this appears to be one of those......my current RPI ratings have Ore @#44 .532 and Ariz @ #27 .587.....Ariz has simply played a tougher schedule......Wisky and Utah are better than anything Oregon has faced.....and they are at home getting points........give me the Wildcats please

 

[gjn23]

Nickleback: good points however Farmer is out for 3-6 weeks with a knee injury. Don't expect to see him until November.

Everybody I know is taking the Ducks (including alums in Tucson that I know). When that happens, something always happens in favor of the other team so watch out with the wager.

I'll be looking to take the over if it's in the mid-high 50's.

As for schedule strength I did see that UA was 5th prior to last weeks NT game, probably now in the 30's or so, but definitely tougher than Oregons. First road game for Fife might cause some problems, but we are VERY banged up on defense. We weren't good to begin with so maybe the backups are better or will play better.

Logic says we get pounded, but logic also said the same thing with the Broncos/Ravens Monday (different game in the NFL however.)