Bet the farm. . . Pac 10 GOY

[Nickelback]

Statman,

Your point is mute when you consider this is how Oregon begins every season. . . they never look THAT impressive until the real games begin in the Pac. They simply know how to win against other Pac 10 teams. Arizona once again is just the opposite. . . they will give Wildcat fans reason to believe the past couple years until the Pac 10 season begins.

I would really like to see Arizona stay within the spread (even though my bankroll would not) and I think its great that somebody actually believes enough in them to take a chance on them this weekend. But I can tell you that absolutely NOTHING that I have seen (keep in mind that I am a biased Arizona fan) the past couple weeks has led me to believe they will stay in contention this game. Oregon may not have looked very impressive so far and they have a new QB that is not as good as Harrington, but Arizona has looked worse IMO. Sure they have won games, but could easily be entering this game with only one win. Do you think the line would still be +7.5 Arizona if they only had that one victory over Northern Arizona University???? Hell no!

Anyways, maybe more cappers will consider taking Arizona as well which would be great so that not everyone is on Oregon. . . but this to me looks as good as anything you will see all season long and after this game, the value on fading Arizona will be gone.

 

[Statman02]

forgot to add that the reason I don't see these aformentioned trends as compelling is this one.......Oregon is only 1/8 as a fav of 7 to 9.5 since 98.....and all of these games have been against PAC conference teams........0/3 ats on the road......checking12 yrs
I see them as 7/5 ats in their first conf away gm......maybe they are ready to bust out and dominate this league......but I don't see the evidence.......I like the Cats for one unit.......don't want to get hurt too bad......keep pumping up that line.....JMHO

 

[Nickelback]

Guess its true that stats can go both ways for either team. . . here's one more nice one:

Arizona is 2-10 ATS the last seven years (including the current year's win over Utah) as a home dog. Given the fact they just covered their last game as a home dog, I'd say the odds are in favor of Oregon to cover this one.



But we shall see!

 

[g-hawg]

One Word........QUACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ferdville]

Strength of schedule is a great tool as long as the team in quesion plays well (win or lose) against the tougher competitions and easily handles the weaker competition. Simply playing tougher teams means nothing other than an increased risk of injury to your players.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding a play from my new system which is 3-0:

Kent State +14 over Marshall

Really like the home dog here and 14 is a pretty solid number. . . public is all over Marshall (even more so than Oregon according to wagerline).


Wanted to answer all of the concern regarding the Arizona line looking too good and the fact that everyone is on them. I just feel like the public is right in this respect and knew on Sunday night when I started all of this that the public would be on Oregon. . . whether they know as much as I do and others who have Oregon or simply like the Ducks, I don't know. Normally I would be all over the other side, but there is just so much good information regarding Arizona and how run down they really are. Most "shady" lines that look like gifts are too good to be true because there isn't enough valid information to go with the "gift". They just simply look good because of previous results during the season. This game is completely different as credible information has been given by several on this board. If there's one person on this forum that would give Arizona the benefit of the doubt, its me. . . but I just don't see it. . . I don't believe they have a chance in hell of winning this game Saturday night and in the Pac 10 where lots of points are scored, laying 7 isn't a major problem. Once again, just my two cents, but information doesn't get much better than what has been laid out for everyone to see this game.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding another system play:

Arkansas St +17 over MTSU. . .

Been waiting for this line to come out as Vegas issued it around Arkansas St. +20 to +21 then took it off the board because there was some concern over the MTSU QB. With or without him, this line is an absolute steal as MTSU is having some real problems. It is difficult to take a bad team over another, but when a winless team has to give another 17 points on the road, I'll take the points. Especially when one of those losses was to SE Missouri St (yes, a powerhouse, but I'll take my chances anyways).

 

[ddubs]

I still keep thinking about Cow's page in last yr's bowl games..........."POUND THE OREGON DUCKS!!"

Good luck, fellas.!

 

[taoist]

...i tend to agree with taking the points, but the reason for the line is the schedules. take a look at mtsu's sec schedule. this one's a pass for me.


Arkansas St. Schedule
August 25 at No. 4 Virginia Tech L 63-7
August 31 San Jose State L 33-14
September 7 Tulsa W 21-19
September 14 at Illinois L 59-7
September 21 at Louisiana Monroe W 33-21
September 28 Tenn. Martin W 30-10
October 5 Middle Tenn. St. 5:00 PM ET -


MTSU's schedule
August 31 at Alabama L 39-34
September 7 at No. 10 Tennessee L 26-3
September 21 at Kentucky L 44-22
September 28 SE Missouri State L 24-14
October 5 at Arkansas State 5:00 PM ET -

 

[Nickelback]

taoist,

I know the schedule played by both teams is the huge factor in this one. . . but losing to a D2 school as MTSU did is ridiculous! Their schedule played certainly doesn't make up for what happened to them last weekend and shows that MTSU is having some real problems. Take the points and run here. . .

 

[Nickelback]

Take Oregon laying whatever in the 2nd half. . . watching this game and Arizona started off very well, but has not been able to establish the rushing attack and Oregon has already made adjustments. Ducks will roll in the 2nd half

 

[Jamaica1997]

Hey Nickelback

Hope we are right and Oregon rolls

Got the farm on Oregon -8.5

& Oergon -6 2nd Half

Let's get em Ducks!!!

:bigun: :bigun: :bigun:

 

[Dizzayton]

C'mon ducks, they are my last piece in a parlay. They just got a pickoff.

 

[Jamaica1997]

TD DUCKS

YES NOW LETS GO DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFEEEEEEEEEEEEENNNNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE


:bigun: :bigun: :bigun:

 

[Dizzayton]

Hell yeah about time!!!!!!
GO DUCKS

 

[Dizzayton]

Keep it moving, Keep it moving, keep that f u c k i n ball movin

 

[Dizzayton]

1st down

 

[Dizzayton]

The Mighty DUCKS!!!!

 

[Nickelback]

Hate to root against my team, but it is kind of a nice consolation prize for them to lose and gain a little $$$ in my bankroll. . . still though, a chance for the dredded middle where Arizona loses by less than 7. Hopefully one or the other.

 

[Dizzayton]

Finally I caught a break, that parlay will make up for the yankee debacle.