Between-Slam Thread (Australian / French)

[Nelson]

Units: +1.55

Going to try some cautious tiny parlays, see if I can make money without actually watching matches, just scores.

Today I have (off record because the first match is already in progress):

3p: Haas (Rochus) 770, Blake (Spadea) 470, del Potro (Stoppini) 1400

[This would have been 2.86 units to win 1.33]

 

[Nelson]

Units: +1.55

(soccer pick)

Mexico +1 -220 (USA)

2.2 units to win 1 unit

 

[Nelson]

Good chance for a tie or Mexican win, if not they lose by one and I get a push.

 

[Nelson]

0-2, loss, give up 2nd goal in closing seconds.

Units: - .65

 

[Nelson]

3p: Haas (Rochus) 770, Blake (Spadea) 470, del Potro (Stoppini) 1400

[This would have been 2.86 units to win 1.33]

All three win in two sets. Will look for some more parlays tomorrow.

Units: -.65

 

[Nelson]

Units: -.65

3parlay: Nadal (Dimitrov) -2250, Murray (Seppi) -1400, Tanasugarn (Silva) -360

2.5 units to win 1.07

 

[Nelson]

easy winner, back in the black.

Units: +.42

Will look for more of these.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Nice Nelson
smart pickup plays
I followed you on the last one there

:toast:

 

[Nelson]

Nice Nelson
smart pickup plays
I followed you on the last one there

:toast:

Great!

Going to try a few more next post, some single bets.

 

[Nelson]

Units: +.42

Picks:

Gil +5 games (Almagro)
1.1 units to win 1 unit

Gulbis +4 games (Roddick)
1.35 units to win 1 unit

Gremelmayr +4 games (Querrey)
1.15 units to win 1 unit

Serra +4' games (Blake)
1.28 units to win 1 unit

 

[Nelson]

Not super confident in these. It might be better to play these dogs straight up because the lines are high enough one winner would more or less guarantee break even. Nevertheless, in these three-setters, I'm going to take the games and pay the extra vig, hoping for a couple wins and a tie. I'm reasonably sure at least one or two dogs of these four will cash but I don't know which ones since I'm not watching, so I'll take the games.

 

[Nelson]

Got all the above at 5dimes.

 

[Nelson]

Even though a couple of these fall within the 120 range, I am not including them on my official record (21-13). These are purely unit picks for the unit record.

 

[Nelson]

Gil +5 games (Almagro)
1.1 units to win 1 unit

WIN 1 unit


Gulbis +4 games (Roddick)
1.35 units to win 1 unit

PUSH


Gremelmayr +4 games (Querrey)
1.15 units to win 1 unit

LOSE 1.15 units


Serra +4' games (Blake)
1.28 units to win 1 unit

LOSE 1.28 units.


Units: -1.01

 

[Nelson]

disappointing. it seems that its better just to bet dogs on the ML, which is often substantial. betting on dogs + games tends to turn wins into ties. dogs + games should only be taken in very special circumstances, where one has a very good idea of how the match will play out. with only a general feel, these seem to be the best strategies:

1) string favs you are very sure will win on a parlay

2) bet favs you really like minus the games rather than straight up at ridiculous odds

3) bet dogs you generally like straight up

4) only bet dogs with games if you have a very clear and specific opinion on how the match will play out

these are my tentative tennis conclusions in pondering basic strategy. it seems the books have designed tennis spreads to screw anyone who bets FML (fav ML) alone on the known guys (fed, nadal, murray). but they've also set the lines so that it's difficult for dogs to cover without winning outright. taking the games is more often than not just a way to buy a false sense of security for extra vig. tennis games betting appears like anything else with a spread but the nature of tennis scoring makes this impression false.

more tomorrow, some good matches coming up.

 

[Nelson]

Units: -1.01

Picks:

Zvonereva-Peng 20 games over -105
2.1 units to win 2 units

Nadal -210 (Tsonga)
4.2 units to win 2 units

 

[Nelson]

I don't see any reason not to take Nadal at such odds. Tsonga is very good. He can beat him. I don't think he will.

Zvonereva hasn't been crushing opposition, I think this ends up 75 64 or goes three sets.

 

[Nelson]

Pick:

Ancic -2 games (Youzhny) -128

2.56 units on Ancic to win 2 units

 

[Nelson]

Line on Nadal dropped significantly, from 210 to 175.

 

[Nelson]

win Nadal, win Ancic, lose Peng over


Units: +.89