Outrights:
Charles Howell(33/1) e.w. = NR
Mike Weir(18/1) e.w.
Bill Haas(50/1) e.w.
Anthony Kim(6/1) e.w. = N.R.
Jason Bohn(250/1) e.w.
Steve Marino(33/1) e.w.
Nicholas Thompson(100/1) e.w.
Harrison Frazar(66/1) e.w.
ODDS and ENDS: (will be editing)
(A) Above plays listed in the order in which I pulled the trigger. FWIW, for one more week it seemed I had a comfortable handle on some solid ANGLES for making the stabs I've made, and in no sense did I feel I was having to scratch around and manufacture a hand to play.
(B) IMO, the most impressive display on debut last week belonged to
Charles Howell. At 33/1 CHIII was my headline play and best value for this event (richly better than 50/1 on Bill Haas, 80/1 now 66/1 on Harrison Frazar, etc.), and then he withdrew after his granfather's death . . . I won't be leaving him off my card next time he plays, and regardless of that outcome, I can't see me leaving him off the time after that.
(C) I'm constantly trying to identify themes to any sport's season. With Z. Johnson, Scott, Toms and Howell separating from the field last week, and Ogilvy doing the same from Kim, et al. the week before, an early theme that appears to be manifesting itself has the established guns focused and looking strong as they use this time to their advantage while Tiger is on the sideline. Not so much early separation taking place in the hodgepodge of results from Europe, IMO.
(D) So analyzing plays on the established guns, if I'm looking for players with proven class who preferred to avoid the winds in Hawaii and make their debut in the desert this week, only
Mike Weir has credentials that stand out, including much success in California, and Weir has a burr under his saddle about the snub given to recent host George Lopez.
http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/571965
(E) It was really hard to see La Quinta High School product
Anthony Kim finishing out of the frame, so I let him carry some of my cash, until his WD for shoulder issues.
(F)
Bill Haas . . . and this is an instance when I would always figure out my strongest Arnold Palmer ANGLE, and then need a real reason to "hold me back".
(G) Notwithstanding my above take on proven class showing strong in the early going of this season, this event would seem a decent opportunity for liking some more speculative plays, based on this week's quirky format, weak field and prior history (although rookies (lots of venues to be familiar with) and first time winners (notwithstanding Charley Hoffman) are rare, according to some research I saw).
(H) IMO, I land my share of winners through decent instincts, experience and judgment in sifting through (and finally pulling the trigger) on a host of ANGLES and INFORMATION from any available source; digging up the stat based angles and/or manufacturing a big score, not so much my thing . . . So I can't take excessive credit if either of the next two plays amount to anything , but on a suggestion elsewhere to take a look at
Jason Bohn, I found very nice value in the tangible stats and intangible characteristics.
http://www.pgatour.com/2008/tournaments/r505/08/28/bohn082808/index.html
(I)
Nicholas Thompson . . . or not.
(J) Lots of stats could be trotted out to support the idea
Steve Marino is tracking well for a real opportunity. Moreover, right at this moment he seems ready to do anything but sputter at the start, and should also possess the patience that seems ideal (with an extra round) for thrusting himself into the business end of the tournament by the weekend. But for me, it was his "look" on view last week that had me single him out from the pack as one to watch going forward.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=53810
(K)
Harrison Frazar has his game in shape, and nothing on the horizon looks to offer a too frequent backer like me any better opportunities than right here and now.
(L) So I've avoided any rookies but opted for quite a few first time winners, even though Justin Leonard of proven class has looked golden for months; Brian Gay is looking much more dependable on Sunday afternoons; and Tim Clark looking for his first win seems an immediate concern by leaving him on the sidelines with Justin. As for Pat Perez, I have to swerve him as he looks to accomplish in 5 rounds what he can't get done in 4 rounds.
GL
