Bob Hope Chrysler Classic

[Anders]

Following the experts here, playing e/w 1 unit on Di Marco (18), Huston (30), Kelly (40) and Mc Carron (50).

Matchups:

Beckman +100 o Gamez
Di Marco +100 o Howell
Kelly +100 o Howell
Leonard -125 o Baddeley
Verplank -111 o Baddeley
Huston -110 o Riley

GL all

 

[Anders]

btw, apologies for lateness of post - damn work taking priorities... :moon:

but at least u can tell from the 1st matchup that I wasn't winging it

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd results 2-1

Leonard +100 over Duval @ 5dimes lost by 2
Gamez -105 over Badds @ 5dimes won by 4
Dimarco -105 -1/2 stroke over Verplank @ WSEX won by 6

Hmmm maybe Duval is back on track after break.Was content with Leonards -5 Duval just played well. We'll see.

A few observations I'll put up here before I look at rd 2.
Appreciate your posting course data again Nomad.Thank you.
Had a little extra time last night and was looking at that very issue. Now these might be off a tad because I did them manually and a few players were still in field.
In viewing the different courses on tv it appeared PGA West was only course to have any semi rough so to speak, so intially thought it would be tougest,but apparently not so. Here are some figures that may be of interest and apply to those of -4 or less (top 31 and ties).
Bermuda Dunes had 17 players in top 31
Indian Wells 12
PGA West 11
La Quinta 5
While that was of some interest so was the fact that field of players at each track was not proportionate.While I did not take scoring ave of each player at each course I did take 2002 top 30.
IW,BD and LQ each had 4 top 30 players in field but PGA W only had 2 and those ranked 27th and 29th (Perry and McCarron).
Taking that in consideration along with Tway and Ames carding -9's it is apparent PGA West is not so tough.

Some player notes. Dimarco seemed very dismayed with his swing all day yet scored well.Lehman,who was back with conventional putter,hit it stiff all day but putting looked quite suspect.

Off to see what I can find.

 

[kjls04202]

Thanks for taking the time Nomad to reply. Unfortunately my point was what was the winners rotation in those years, rather than the average scores.
As for the first round I reckon my two players are over par at -2.

Perhaps Stanley will enlighten us as to the real averages at each course after weighting using the Sagarin index. I seem to remember that he did a brilliant summary after round one last year. Perhaps it was not this particular tournament but it was a similar thing.
Thanks and continued good luck all.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Looks like neither Oly or SIA will offer up place only in 2nd rd(same last week) so will opt for 1 unit total E/W (drat) to take adv of odds with 4 rds remaining.
Did have 2 players of 4 I was hoping for slow start 1st day,maybe too slow.Both played course La Quinte which looked toughest by far IMHO yesterday.Both plays @ Sportingbet
Toms 40/1
Howell 80/1

rd 2 got a couple @ WSEX both picks - 1/2 stroke

Leonard -120 over Badds
Huge rating difference 4th to 52nd
While Badds has no course form is only a handful that have lower scoring ave (67.93)past 5 years with minimum of 3 events played than Leonard.Funk is 1st???? In addition both playing La Quinta and tougher course favor Leonard who also has earlier tee.

Huston +100 over McCarron
Huston rates 7 McCarron 27
Current form stats rate edge to Mc but Hustons drug down by opening event and think his 2nd last week more logical than his 50th previous.
Course form: Huston played 4 of last 5 years with 3 top ten's and one cut. Mc played 4 with no top 10's and no cuts.You be the judge
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
kjls04202 Thanks for the link on tees mate.Far quicker than pga.com:toast:

 

[Myron]

Here are the plays I have going

Toms at 9/1 for 10 units
Love e/w at 24/1 for 10 units
Verplank e/w at 52/1 for 5 units
Durant e/w at 35/1 for 3 units

 

[Myron]

I can't believe Love was able to shoot 8 under at La Quita - easily the toughest of the 4 courses (Duval shot 78 there today). It seems to me that Love is strictly the one to beat at this point. He still has Bermuda Dunes and PGA West which appear to have been playing really easy both days.

 

[kjls04202]

You are right Myron, if Love plays well he could easily have a good lead by Sunday. But Davis does have the propensity to throw it all away, especially when it matters. Good luck though.

 

[Myron]

Durant looks good too. He also has already played La Quinta.

To give you an idea of how easy Bermuda Dunes and PGA West are playing, Jay Haas is 16 under at those courses - Yes, JAY HAAS!!! :look:

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd 1-1

Huston +100 over McCarron loss by 4
Leonard -120 over Badds win by 1/2

No plays to post today.Probabaly wait till final rd. To hard on the noggin when to have to selection in 2 days go 6 under and lose.
Especial one to Duval who next day gets drilled by every pro in field and 20% on the amatuers.

 

[kjls04202]

I also agree with you Myron that Durant is in a good position. Unfortunately he is not much value now. I did have it mind to back him on Betfair before yesterday, in order to hedge later, but I backed Perez @ 160 instead and easily hedged on him. Perez has also played the same rotation.
To date this is how the rotation reads of the top 25 players;

BD - PGA = 8

PG - IW = 8

LQ - BD = 5

IW - LQ = 4

This does highlight to an extent who so far has been favoured.
In looking for possible movers up the board, Justin Leonard makes some appeal.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Sheez Only book I got with lines up yet is 365. Here some stats I been digging while waiting for lines to come up that may be of interest in outrights in running and matches.

Outrights Just how much harder is La Quinta than the rest of these courses? The leader board is packed with players yet to play La Quinta till today.Over half of the 13 in top 10.
Pampling,Dimarco,Hass,Gogal,Weir,Gossett and Kresge---and 2 days for players below to catch up with tough pins on Sunday at PGA West.

Bounce factor These are scores of rounds by player shooting 63 or less the following day.
63-67
61-70
62-72
62-71
63-74
Players carding 63 or better yesterday-a bunch
Herron-Lowery-Hammond-Lickliter-Riley-Mick

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got one for 4th rd
Love -140 over Badds -1/2 stroke @ WSEX

Will take another shot at Badds after coming off his low rd so far. Not accustomed to giving up this much weight but # wise I think its justified. There is Huge rating diff and while I can only pull up stats on 1st 2 rds Love is hitting 80%+ of fairways,Badds a little over 50% and with pga course the only to have appreciable rough I'm hoping that will add to the cause.
On an added note I have habit of backing Love on rd he throughs his clinker on.

 

[hoss]

Has any else noticed what keeps happening to the ******* PGA tour scoring site!!!

Twice I've seen my 400/1 chance Kresge go up into 4th place + then twice 1/2 hr later he's had 2 or 3 shots knocked off + gone back into the bunch! He showed as birdieing the last to go -6 for the day (on the tough course!) then when I've just checked back after he's bogeyed it to drop to -4 for the day!!!

It's :moon:

hoss

PS luckily I've got some Herron @140 on Betfair, but it's not as much fun if you haven't posted it

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

At the cut 4th rd 1-0 72holes 2-0 & 2 pending

4th rd
Love/Badds Win win by 8
Love tried to spit the bit but Badds would have no part of it.

72 holes
Kelly/Duval win by 10
Verplanks/Badds win by 10
Both fades come though in flying colors

pending
Huston/Verplank 1 up
Haas/Gogal 6 up

Outrights continue to suck
Howell cut-Beckman way back-Toms no chance.

Final rd plays
Mick -130 over McCarron - 1/2 stroke @ WSEX
Mick much the best plus ranked 3rd in final rd scoring ave in 2002,
McCarron ranked 127. My view,odds more than justified.
Might add Mick is 12-1 vs McCarron in matches past year 2-0 last 3 months and 2-0 on course.Nice addition to stats Stan.

Gamez +103 over Trip
Trip does hold edge on ratings but Gamez a changed player and even when playing poorly in 2002 ranked 20th in final rd scoring ave. Quite the reverse for Trip who ranked 155. Maybe on account of age and tiring in later rds if so this is one extra rd.
One tourney in common this year,The Phoenix Open where Trip shot his worst in final rd and Gamez beat him by 5 in final rd.
Have to give him a nod at these odds.

 

[Penguinfan]

Not sure what I am doing in this forum, but here is what my book is offering for the last round if anyone has any input:

Hass even
Herron -120

Demarco -120
Weir even

Lowery -110
perry -110

If any of you have time, give em a look.

THANKS
penguinfan

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 5-0-0; +3.00 units

Leonard/Sluman WON by 3
Leonard/Triplett WON by 2
Leonard/Baddeley WON by 11 (at the cut)
DiMarco/Howell WON by 19 (at the cut)
Gay/O'Meara WON by 2

Outrights: 1-2; -0.12 units

DiMarco 3rd
Huston 32nd
Love 12th

Another sweep in the PGA Tour matchups ... what a change from last year! Good event from Leonard ensures a good return in this department and could have been better in the outrights: DiMarco had been within one shot of the lead when he shanked his approach shot on the 14th and all three had been in the top-10 early in the back nine on Sunday. Still another profitable PGA Tour event though.

PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 16-4; +5.58 units
Outrights: 3-9; +2.51 units

All Tours ytd
Matchups: 42-24; +11.45 units
Outrights: 8-28; +18.39 units

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Finals 4th rd 1-1 remaining 72 holes 1-1
4th rd
Mick/McCarron win
Gamez/Tripp loss
72 holes
Haas/Gogal win
Huston/Verplank loss

Outrights Beckman-Howell-Toms all very poor choices

Outrights week -3 units ytd -11 units
Matches week 8-4 + 3.8 units ytd 28-15 +11.78 units

Need to turn outrights around.No place only options available anywhere after 1st rd is disheartening,however would not have made difference this week as I was looking to Huston and Kelly.
Don't know whats up with Oly and SIA not lining any.
I expect WSEX to stop their 1/2 stroke rd by rd next. 7-1 on posted matches there and have tagged em with a little parlay each week. Put this little 4th rounder on em yesterday

02/02/2003 03:53:00 5 Play Parlay: Wagered $10.00 to win $219.03 Won Parlay Wager
GP5 3 2/2 JAY HAAS VS DAVID GOSSETT (CHRYSLER CLASSIC 5TH ROUND ONLY) JAY HAAS -0.5 (+105) (W)
GP5 11 2/2 STEVE LOWERY VS PETER JACOBSEN (CHRYSLER CLASSIC 5TH ROUND ONLY) STEVE LOWERY -0.5 (-115) (W)
GP5 13 2/2 JOHN HUSTON VS FRED COUPLES (CHRYSLER CLASSIC 5TH ROUND ONLY) JOHN HUSTON -0.5 (-130) (W)
GP5 15 2/2 PHIL MICKELSON VS SCOTT MCCARRON (CHRYSLER CLASSIC 5TH ROUND ONLY) PHIL MICKELSON -0.5 (-130) (W)
GP5 17 2/2 JERRY KELLY VS ROBERT GAMEZ (CHRYSLER CLASSIC 5TH ROUND ONLY) JERRY KELLY -0.5 (-110) (W)