Bob Hope Classic

[Ian]

And here was me thinking that the Silly Season had ended
Main bet of the week is McCarron - Multisports kind enough to give me 40/1 but 33/1 most places is fair enough
Outsiders to note Peoples (125/1 Sporting Odds) and Pernice (was 125/1 Camelot)
Wasn't going to bet Calc this week but Camelots generous offer of 50/1 was too hard to resist.
Working on one more selection at present

 

[Ian]

Final selection - this is what Mr Elliot would call "inspiration by comparison"

Jerry Kelly
Age - 35
Born - Wisconsin
Buy.com tour wins - 2 in 95
BEF - 2nd (before last week)

Skip Kendall
Age - 37
Born - Wisconsin
Buy.com tour wins - 2 in 94
BEF - 2nd

Now if you believe this you will never hear the end of it in next years golf form book - and the clinchers have to be - both names begin with Ke and have two l's in them
Well I have put my biggest bet of the last 5 minutes on this one at 100/1 Paddy Power or William Hills
Or is it all just Bollocks?!?!

 

[Clive]

you forgot to mention that both players will be 40 in the next few years, so they are bound to start playing better.

They probably both have children too, which means they are in a settled state of mind and are likely to leave their previous performances well behind this year.

The law of Hilton Head dictates that neither of these players are mentioned in his preview this year, so he will need to find another way of claiming them as winners on the cover blurb if they oblige this week...as they surely will.

Of course, I will be following his advice and backing every player who follows the course rotation of LQ_IW_PGA_BD this week....especially those who are Capricorns

I assume those who live away from this Isle are spared the wisdom of MrElliott!?

 

[Stanley]

LMAO!!! :brows:

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays

Outright plays

Charles Howell to win 25/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Blue Square or BetSmart [0.5 units]
Very impressed with his 2002 debut last week. Whenever he faulted, he came back even stronger ... just strong enough to deny a matchup win with Furyk over him! No course form, but top-20 in the Invensys Classic at the end of last year. Will surely go close.

Scott Verplank to win 28/1 e.w. @ Heathorns [0.5 units]
Was very impressive for three rounds in the Mercedes Championship and is coming off a week's rest. Two weeks of playing in the Trade Winds does not do your swing any good! Finished 4th last year and despite the courses being set up easy for the amateurs, it is players with good driving accuracy and greens in regulations stats that tend to play well in this event.

Scott McCarron to win 33/1 e.w. @ NetBetSports [0.5 units]
Top-5 in the Mercedes and, like Verplank, has had a week to restore his swing. Top-20 last year and top-5 in the last two Invensys Classics, he likes the courses set up easy and can handle the distractions of giggle golf. Should see another fine performance from the Californian.

 

[Clive]

Managed to get 33/1 Verplankwith Heathorns yesterday...won't post the slip BMad!

Firmly believe that this tournament is so easy that the advantage the better players normally have is largely nullified.

As well as Verplank, I've gone for Cook (40) and Kev Sutherland (80 sports, 66 elsewhere)

 

[bettingmad]

Clive,
If you don't post the slip I won't believe you.... but then again even if you do....

Not rushing into any outrights on this.... going to let them bed in for 2/3 rounds and pluck some value from an unsuspecting bookie

 

[Clive]

...as the stagger unwinds!!

 

[bettingmad]

Precisely Clive!
I just hope it's a slow unwind and one of the favourites doesn't sprint clear and kill all the in-running fun.

 

[Couchpotato]

I like Calc here at 50-1, nice success here and on desert courses and 5th place at Mercedes was a nice start. He always seems to do well these first 3 months, had him at the Honda last year which was a tough beat to Parnevik. Also give Daly a shot at 66-1, not much course form but he should be able to eat up the Par 5's and if his putter cooperates I give him a decent shot. He was playing well the last 3 months of season, just not sure how much work he has done in off season. I know he wants to get into Top 50 to qualify for Augusta.

 

[Clive]

just opened an account with Camelot (which was fairly painless, although getting money back seems more complicated!)

Had one match bet, and the line moved straight away...does that always happen....are the match bets set up to automatically balance their book? Or are they run by Betsmart?

 

[Couchpotato]

Clive - Their matchup lines always seem to move on a bet, if your the first to hit a future it will drop like a rock also, play somebody at 50-1, then their at 40-1, they get hit again its 33-1, and we are not talking about large wagers here. I haven't paid that close attention but I doubt any future prices are being raised to compensate the drops in others. I think Camelot is more than fair on the future openers, its just if you play late you really are taking the worst of it. Maybe you are correct...the software might automatically be adjusting odds on these plays.

 

[rio]

Just 3 for now; although would like to add John Cook if I can find some 50's somewhere.

Anyway, 3 for now are:

J Sluman

Steady perfomance last week without really getting hot. Accurate GIR player who hopefully will not have been too badly effected by the Trade Winds.
50/1 generally seems fair enough.

R Mediate

Can giggle around with the best of them and at 100/1 Blue Sq. is a must for me. I hope he hits the ground running and doesn't leave it for Phoenix.

S Flesch

Hadn't planned to include Flesch this week but 80/1 BetDirect was too big for me and I'm hopeful he will finally have a winning year. Plenty of birdies in this guy.

Good Luck.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Outrights Same page this week Stan
to place only @ oly 1 unit each
McCarron 10/1 Howell 9/1


72 holes
Kendall -110 over Franco @ Camelot
Roberts -110 over May @ Camelot
Kraft +100 over Waite @ Camelot
McCarron -105 over K Perry @ Royal

Had a few more but they have moved out of range since this morning.5 Dimes,Oly and Cascade not up yet may add a few in am.

 

[Stanley]

Geez, I really should wait for Oly's lines before making outright plays!

Verplank 30/1
Howell 36/1
McCarron 40/1



Wish I knew if they were continuing the 'no dead heat' rule :shrug:

 

[Stanley]

72-hole plays:

72-hole plays:

Fred Funk to beat Brandel Chamblee -165 @ Camelot [0.5 units]
Top-10 in two of last three years and 13th last week, I'll take the chalk on Funk against a player who has a best of 66th in this event in his last three visits

Fred Couples to beat John Daly -105 @ Bet365
Expect Daly to continue to improve, but he has missed the cut in three of five visits. With these five day events, if he gets a good start he can finish highly, but if not, he still does not have the patience and concentration to grind. Siding with Couples who won this event in 1998 and has an excellent long-term record in these pro-ams.

Lee Janzen to beat John Daly -105 @ Camelot
Taking Janzen at decent odds. Steady record in this event so with a mid-table position expected, I'll leave to Daly to hand over the victory

Skip Kendall to beat John Daly -110 @ Olympic
Kendall recorded top-10 finishes in 1998 and 1999 and has a decent record in the Invensys Classic. Comfortable with the pro-am format and maybe inspired by fellow Wisconsin native, Kelly's win last week.

Skip Kendall to beat Carlos Franco -110 @ Camelot [0.5 units]
A missed cut last week and a first-time starter in this event, it is easy to oppose Franco.

Kevin Sutherland to beat Paul Stankowski -110 @ Surrey [0.5 units]
Stankowski finished 2nd last year and has a decent record in pro-ams, but these tend to fleeting glimpses of the player of 1996-97. Sutherland is a much better, more consistent player and can boast top-10 finishes in two of the last three years here.

 

[ormond80]

Won w/ Faxon over Durant last week. Let's continue.

This week in the desert 72 hole matchup:

Taking C. Howell over D. Toms +110

Happy Gaming

 

[wannabe whale]

Starting out my season on the West Coast-heres hoping a great season for everyone here!!

To Win:
Calc 50-1--appears too high
Howell 36-1--won't catch him up in the 30's for long

Longshots:
Tway 100-1--really liked his form at the end of last year-played well here LY.
Durant 100-1--played sooo well here worth a small look
Maggert 80-1--see above

Matchups:72 hole
Geiberger -130 over Day
Calc -120 over Triplett
JKelly -105 over Sutton
Stankowski -125 over Toledo
Maggert -120 over Pavin ** Best **

 

[boris]

Clive,
I'm a yearly subscriber to "The Bible". Handy asset, but not the be-all and end-all of golf punting.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Adding a couple @ 5dimes
72 holes /Kendall -105 over Daly
1st round /Toms +110 over Weir