Bob Hope Classic

[Cartman88]

I will have a dabble at the following outrights this week (all each way)

Mickelson 11-1
Howell 25-1
Sutton 80-1
Durant 80-1

 

[Couchpotato]

I just checked and Calc is 5 ov after 8 in dead last opposing Triplett who is 5 un after 5. Not a good start, don't think the 72 hole cut will even make a difference here. I'm curious and am assuming that with the 4 course rotation and the 1 pro, 4 amateurs for the first 4 days they move the pins everyday? I'm sure the tour officials try to make things as fair as possible but some positions have to be more difficult than others. Guess a lot depends on catching a course on a good day since I see some low scores being posted at on the front nine at Tamarisk.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Clive - Their matchup lines always seem to move on a bet, if your the first to hit a future it will drop like a rock also, play somebody at 50-1, then their at 40-1, they get hit again its 33-1, and we are not talking about large wagers here. I haven't paid that close attention but I doubt any future prices are being raised to compensate the drops in others. I think Camelot is more than fair on the future openers, its just if you play late you really are taking the worst of it. Maybe you are correct...the software might automatically be adjusting odds on these plays.

Or, more likely they respect Clive's opinion. Funnily enough sometimes money moves lines you know

 

[Couchpotato]

AV2 - No doubt money will move a number, but a $30 wager causing the future price to drop from 40 to 33-1...thats not right to move every number on a very small wager, IMO.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Why is it not right?

It is possible (but probably unlikely for a golf oriented place like that) that they have set their risk limit at 1000.

Or, the other thing is, a clever playing taking a 50 or 40/1 makes the odds move, that would make sense to me.

 

[Couchpotato]

AV2 - The reason I think this is not right is that the futures normally have an enormous hold percentage built in, estimating 25% although I've seen some at WSEX (and they are not the worse by any means, just an example) that were > 40% . So if you start dropping odds on a few players, lets say 10-15 players take small wagers and they have their odds dropped dramatically, example C Howell III went from 40 to 25-1, somebody or a group of players have to have their odds raised. If they are not raised then a books hold on the future that was originally priced for a 25 % hold is now much greater and makes it even a worse bet for the player.

 

[AussieVamp2]

25%?

Golf generally a lot more than that I think - at least for places that list everyone and not the 30+field model which will still have more.

Not sure golf bookmakers are too worried about consistent market percentages for golf?

Not that I really look for lengthening players, but does it happen?

 

[Couchpotato]

AV2 - Only place I've seen list all the players is Camelot, are there others? LVSC sent out openers on 30 golfers and the field, with their prices the expected hold percentage was 34 %. Your right most places will just rip people off by lowering the odds on futures as the bets are taken.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Lots of golf bookmakers list everyone. Some others will list lots and chop off the dregs at the end though.

 

[nomad]

Thanks Stanley, it took a few goes but I finally got it to look right.
This is a leaderboard showing course played and the course for round 2 just as a reference for anyone who might be interested. Also added some stats to glance at.

Let me know if people think it's beneficial and I'll update it again after the next round.

Pos.	Rnd1	Rnd2		.               Score	
T1	T	BD	Brandel Chamblee *	-9	63
T1	T	BD	Jay Haas *		-9	63
T3	AP	IW	Jerry Kelly *		-8	64
T3	AP	IW	John Senden *		-8	64
T3	BD	AP	Glen Hnatiuk		-8	64
T3	IW	T	Heath Slocum *		-8	64
T3	T	BD	Duffy Waldorf *		-8	64
T3	T	BD	Kirk Triplett		-8	64
T3	T	BD	Phil Mickelson		-8	64
T10	AP	IW	J.P. Hayes *		-7	65
T10	BD	AP	Charles Howell III *	-7	65
T10	BD	AP	John Huston *		-7	65
T10	IW	T	Corey Pavin *		-7	65
T10	IW	T	Mark O'Meara *		-7	65
T10	T	BD	Mike Sposa		-7	65
T10	T	BD	Phillip Price *		-7	65
T17	BD	AP	Chad Campbell *		-6	66
T17	BD	AP	Mike Weir 		-6	66
T17	IW	T	Deane Pappas		-6	66
T17	IW	T	Rod Pampling		-6	66
T17	IW	T	Tim Petrovic		-6	66
T17	T	BD	Rocco Mediate *		-6	66
T17	T	BD	Skip Kendall		-6	66
T24	AP	IW	Billy Andrade		-5	67
T24	AP	IW	Chris DiMarco		-5	67
T24	AP	IW	Grant Waite		-5	67
T24	AP	IW	Steve Elkington		-5	67
T24	AP	IW	Steve Flesch		-5	67
T24	BD	AP	J.J. Henry  		-5	67
T24	BD	AP	Jeff Sluman		-5	67
T24	BD	AP	Stephen Ames *		-5	67
T24	IW	T	Briny Baird		-5	67
T24	IW	T	Peter Jacobsen *	-5	67
T24	IW	T	Stewart Cink *		-5	67
T24	T	BD	Cameron Beckman		-5	67
T24	T	BD	Garrett Willis		-5	67
T24	T	BD	Greg Kraft		-5	67
T38	AP	IW	Lee Janzen		-4	68
T38	AP	IW	Per-Ulrik Johansson *	-4	68
T38	BD	AP	J.L. Lewis 		-4	68
T38	BD	AP	Joey Sindelar *		-4	68
T89	IW	T	Brian Watts *		-4	68
T38	IW	T	Jesper Parnevik *	-4	68
T38	IW	T	John Cook *		-4	68
T38	IW	T	Kenneth Staton		-4	68
T38	IW	T	Stuart Appleby *	-4	68
T38	IW	T	Tom Scherrer		-4	68
T38	T	BD	Brad Elder *		-4	68
T38	T	BD	Dave Stockton, Jr. *	-4	68
T38	T	BD	David Peoples *		-4	68
T38	T	BD	Kaname Yokoo		-4	68
T38	T	BD	Steve Jones		-4	68
T52	AP	IW	David Berganio, Jr.	-3	69
T52	AP	IW	Olin Browne		-3	69
T52	AP	IW	Pete Jordan		-3	69
T52	AP	IW	Scott Verplank		-3	69
T52	AP	IW	Jonathan Byrd		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Ben Crane *		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Bob May   		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Brandt Jobe *		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Dennis Paulson		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Esteban Toledo		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Fred Couples		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Jeff Maggert		-3	69
T52	BD	AP	Mark Brooks		-3	69
T52	IW	T	David Duval *		-3	69
T52	IW	T	Gary Nicklaus		-3	69
T52	IW	T	Ian Leggatt		-3	69
T52	IW	T	John Daly *		-3	69
T52	IW	T	Kenny Perry		-3	69
T52	T	BD	Brent Geiberger *	-3	69
T52	T	BD	Glen Day *		-3	69
T52	T	BD	Robert Damron *		-3	69
T52	T	BD	Scott McCarron *	-3	69
T52	T	BD	Steve Lowery *		-3	69
T52	T	BD	Steve Stricker		-3	69
T76	AP	IW	Fred Funk *		-2	70
T76	AP	IW	Loren Roberts *		-2	70
T76	AP	IW	Bob Burns		-2	70
T76	BD	AP	Brian Gay 		-2	70
T76	BD	AP	Craig Stadler *		-2	70
T76	BD	AP	David Frost *		-2	70
T76	BD	AP	Michael Clark II *	-2	70
T76	BD	AP	Neal Lancaster		-2	70
T76	IW	T	Justin Leonard *	-2	70
T76	T	BD	David Gossett *		-2	70
T76	T	BD	Rich Beem		-2	70
T76	T	BD	Steve Pate		-2	70
T89	AP	IW	Billy Mayfair *		-1	71
T76	AP	IW	Pat Bates 		-1	71
T89	BD	AP	Andrew Magee *		-1	71
T89	BD	AP	Harrison Frazar		-1	71
T89	IW	T	Brian Henninger *	-1	71
T89	IW	T	Donnie Hammond		-1	71
T89	IW	T	Joe Durant *		-1	71
T89	IW	T	Keith Fergus		-1	71
T89	IW	T	Paul Gow *		-1	71
T89	IW	T	Woody Austin		-1	71
T89	T	BD	Bob Tway 		-1	71
T89	T	BD	Notah Begay III *	-1	71
T101	AP	IW	Mike Hulbert		E	72
T101	AP	IW	Paul Stankowski *	E	72
T101	AP	IW	Tom Pernice, Jr. *	E	72
T101	BD	AP	David Toms *		E	72
T101	BD	AP	John Rollins *		E	72
T101	BD	AP	Michael Muehr		E	72
T101	IW	T	Blaine McCallister	E	72
T101	IW	T	Ed Fiori     		E	72
T101	IW	T	Matt Gogel		E	72
T101	T	BD	Edward Fryatt		E	72
T111	AP	IW	Chris Smith *		1	73
T111	AP	IW	Hal Sutton *		1	73
T111	AP	IW	Jay Don Blake *		1	73
T111	AP	IW	Paul Casey *		1	73
T111	BD	AP	Carlos Franco *		1	73
T111	BD	AP	John Mahaffey *		1	73
T111	T	BD	Kevin Sutherland *	1	73
T111	T	BD	Sandy Lyle *		1	73
T119	AP	IW	Frank Nobilo *		2	74
T119	BD	AP	Geoff Ogilvy		2	74
121	IW	T	Pat Perez 		3	75
T122	AP	IW	Greg Chalmers		4	76
T122	AP	IW	Mark Calcavecchia *	4	76
T122	AP	IW	Monty Leong *		4	76
T125	AP	IW	Chris Perry		5	77
T125	T	BD	Mark Hayes		5	77
T127	BD	AP	Doug Sanders *		6	78
T127	IW	T	Arnold Palmer *		6	78

	Sub Par    	Avg. Sub   	Total Avg.
AP	20            	-3.95        	70.25
BD	25            	-3.72        	69.41
IW	27            	-3.78        	69.09
T	28            	-4.61        	68.19

NB - These are only a reference...No responsibility for errors

 

[Stanley]

Nomad, add the "code" tags before and after the table data and they should then be aligned.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Rd Results 0-1 Toms loses to Weir by 5
Don't know what Toms prob is.Shooting par on that course is not good.At +110 there is not many I would take him against.I see he is -145 in same match today@ 5Dimes.
What about Mick after all the down time.Comes out and doesn't miss a beat.Something I thought odd but on an interesting note was 2 sources on tour both stated he was the least liked player among his peers on tour.
Couldn't find anything sticking out at 1st glance on todays rd.Neither Camelot nor Cascade have dropped any lines down yet.Be back if I find something later.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd Flesch -115 over Andrade @ WSEX
Andrade barely made 1/2 his cuts last year(51%)mabe he'll come back to earth after yesterdays -5

 

[nomad]

tried to delete these posts but seem unable for some reason

 

[nomad]

.

 

[nomad]

Pos.	Rnd1	Rnd2	Rnd3	Rnd4	                                1	2	Total
1	AP	IW	T	BD	John Senden *		-15	64	65	129
2	T	BD	AP	IW	Brandel Chamblee *	-14	63	67	130
T3	T	BD	AP	IW	Jay Haas *		-13	63	68	131
T3	T	BD	AP	IW	Phil Mickelson		-13	64	67	131
T5	T	BD	AP	IW	Greg Kraft		-12	67	65	132
T5	IW	T	BD	AP	Heath Slocum *		-12	64	68	132
T5	BD	AP	IW	T	Charles Howell III *	-12	65	67	132
T5	AP	IW	T	BD	Steve Elkington		-12	67	65	132
T9	T	BD	AP	IW	Duffy Waldorf *		-11	66	67	133
T9	T	BD	AP	IW	Kirk Triplett		-11	64	69	133
T9	T	BD	AP	IW	Scott McCarron*		-11	68	65	133
T9	IW	T	BD	AP	Kenny Perry		-11	69	64	133
T9	AP	IW	T	BD	Fred Funk *		-11	70	63	133
T9	AP	IW	T	BD	Grant Waite		-11	67	66	133
T9	AP	IW	T	BD	J.P. Hayes *		-11	65	68	133
T9	AP	IW	T	BD	Jerry Kelly *		-11	64	69	133
T17	T	BD	AP	IW	Brad Elder *		-10	66	68	134
T17	T	BD	AP	IW	Cameron Beckman		-10	67	67	134
T17	T	BD	AP	IW	Phillip Price *		-10	65	69	134
T17	T	BD	AP	IW	Steve Jones		-10	66	68	134
T17	IW	T	BD	AP	Briny Baird		-10	67	67	134
T17	IW	T	BD	AP	Corey Pavin *		-10	65	69	134
T17	IW	T	BD	AP	Deane Pappas		-10	66	68	134
T17	IW	T	BD	AP	Peter Jacobsen*		-10	67	67	134
T17	BD	AP	IW	T	Mike Weir		-10	66	68	134
T26	T	BD	AP	IW	Garrett Willis		-9	67	68	135
T26	T	BD	AP	IW	Mike Sposa		-9	66	69	135
T26	IW	T	BD	AP	Stewart Cink *		-9	67	68	135
T26	IW	T	BD	AP	Tom Scherrer		-9	68	67	135
T26	BD	AP	IW	T	Brian Gay		-9	70	65	135
T26	BD	AP	IW	T	Fred Couples		-9	69	66	135
T26	BD	AP	IW	T	Jeff Sluman		-9	67	68	135
T26	AP	IW	T	BD	David Berganio, Jr.	-9	69	66	135
T34	T	BD	AP	IW	Kaname Yokoo		-8	68	68	136
T34	T	BD	AP	IW	Rocco Mediate *		-8	66	70	136
T34	T	BD	AP	IW	Skip Kendall		-8	66	70	136
T34	T	BD	AP	IW	Steve Stricker		-8	69	67	136
T34	IW	T	BD	AP	John Daly *		-8	69	67	136
T34	IW	T	BD	AP	Justin Leonard*		-8	70	66	136
T34	IW	T	BD	AP	Tim Petrovic		-8	66	70	136
T34	BD	AP	IW	T	Chad Campbell *		-8	66	70	136
T34	BD	AP	IW	T	Craig Stadler *		-8	70	66	136
T34	BD	AP	IW	T	Glen Hnatiuk		-8	64	72	136
T34	BD	AP	IW	T	J.J. Henry		-8	67	69	136
T34	BD	AP	IW	T	J.L. Lewis		-8	68	68	136
T34	BD	AP	IW	T	Joey Sindelar *		-8	68	68	136
T34	AP	IW	T	BD	Chris DiMarco		-8	67	69	136
T34	AP	IW	T	BD	Olin Browne		-8	69	67	136
T49	T	BD	AP	IW	Dave Stockton, Jr. *	-7	68	69	137
T49	IW	T	BD	AP	David Duval *		-7	69	68	137
T49	IW	T	BD	AP	John Cook *		-7	68	69	137
T49	IW	T	BD	AP	Mark O'Meara *		-7	65	72	137
T49	IW	T	BD	AP	Stuart Appleby *	-7	68	69	137
T49	BD	AP	IW	T	Bob May   		-7	69	68	137
T49	BD	AP	IW	T	Harrison Frazar		-7	71	66	137
T49	BD	AP	IW	T	John Huston *		-7	65	72	137
T49	AP	IW	T	BD	Bob Burns		-7	70	67	137
T49	AP	IW	T	BD	Lee Janzen		-7	68	69	137
T49	AP	IW	T	BD	Loren Roberts *		-7	70	67	137
T49	AP	IW	T	BD	Per-Ulrik Johansson *	-7	68	69	137
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	Bob Tway		-6	70	68	138
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	Brent Geiberger *	-6	69	69	138
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	David Peoples *		-6	70	68	138
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	Edward Fryatt		-6	72	66	138
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	Glen Day *		-6	69	69	138
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	Rich Beem		-6	70	68	138
T61	T	BD	AP	IW	Steve Pate		-6	70	68	138
T61	IW	T	BD	AP	Ian Leggatt		-6	69	69	138
T61	IW	T	BD	AP	Jesper Parnevik *	-6	68	70	138
T61	IW	T	BD	AP	Kenneth Staton		-6	68	70	138
T61	IW	T	BD	AP	Rod Pampling		-6	66	72	138
T61	BD	AP	IW	T	Ben Crane *		-6	69	69	138
T61	BD	AP	IW	T	Esteban Toledo		-6	69	69	138
T61	BD	AP	IW	T	Stephen Ames *		-6	67	71	138
T61	AP	IW	T	BD	Scott Verplank		-6	69	69	138
T76	T	BD	AP	IW	Kevin Sutherland *	-5	73	66	139
T76	IW	T	BD	AP	Gary Nicklaus		-5	69	70	139
T76	BD	AP	IW	T	David Frost *		-5	70	69	139
T84	BD	AP	IW	T	Michael Muehr		-5	72	67	139
T76	BD	AP	IW	T	Neal Lancaster		-5	70	69	139
T76	AP	IW	T	BD	Billy Andrade		-5	67	72	139
T76	AP	IW	T	BD	Jay Don Blake *		-5	73	66	139
T76	AP	IW	T	BD	Jonathan Byrd		-5	69	70	139
T76	AP	IW	T	BD	Tom Pernice, Jr. *	-5	72	67	139
T84	T	BD	AP	IW	David Gossett *		-4	70	70	140
T84	IW	T	BD	AP	Blaine McCallister	-4	72	68	140
T84	IW	T	BD	AP	Brian Watts *		-4	69	71	140
T84	IW	T	BD	AP	Joe Durant *		-4	71	69	140
T84	BD	AP	IW	T	David Toms *		-4	72	68	140
T84	BD	AP	IW	T	Dennis Paulson		-4	69	71	140
T84	BD	AP	IW	T	Jeff Maggert		-4	69	71	140
T84	AP	IW	T	BD	Steve Flesch		-4	67	73	140
T93	IW	T	BD	AP	Brian Henninger *	-3	71	70	141
T93	IW	T	BD	AP	Woody Austin		-3	71	70	141
T93	BD	AP	IW	T	Brandt Jobe *		-3	69	72	141
T93	BD	AP	IW	T	Carlos Franco *		-3	73	68	141
T93	BD	AP	IW	T	John Rollins *		-3	72	69	141
T93	AP	IW	T	BD	Frank Nobilo *		-3	74	67	141
T93	AP	IW	T	BD	Mike Hulbert		-3	72	69	141
T93	AP	IW	T	BD	Pete Jordan		-3	69	72	141
T101	T	BD	AP	IW	Steve Lowery *		-2	69	73	142
T101	IW	T	BD	AP	Keith Fergus		-2	71	71	142
T101	IW	T	BD	AP	Matt Gogel		-2	72	70	142
T101	BD	AP	IW	T	Mark Brooks		-2	69	73	142
T101	BD	AP	IW	T	Michael Clark II *	-2	70	72	142
T101	AP	IW	T	BD	Hal Sutton *		-2	73	69	142
T107	T	BD	AP	IW	Notah Begay III *	-1	71	72	143
T107	BD	AP	IW	T	Geoff Ogilvy		-1	74	69	143
T107	AP	IW	T	BD	Billy Mayfair *		-1	71	72	143
T110	T	BD	AP	IW	Sandy Lyle *		E	74	70	144
T110	IW	T	BD	AP	Donnie Hammond		E	71	73	144
T110	IW	T	BD	AP	Ed Fiori		E	72	72	144
T110	BD	AP	IW	T	Andrew Magee *		E	71	73	144
T110	AP	IW	T	BD	Chris Smith *		E	73	71	144
T110	AP	IW	T	BD	Pat Bates		E	71	73	144
T116	BD	AP	IW	T	John Mahaffey *		1	73	72	145
T116	AP	IW	T	BD	Greg Chalmers		1	76	69	145
T116	AP	IW	T	BD	Paul Casey *		1	73	72	145
T119	T	BD	AP	IW	Robert Damron *		2	69	77	146
T119	AP	IW	T	BD	Paul Stankowski *	2	72	74	146
121	IW	T	BD	AP	Paul Gow *		3	71	76	147
122	IW	T	BD	AP	Pat Perez		4	75	73	148
123	AP	IW	T	BD	Mark Calcavecchia *	5	76	73	149
124	T	BD	AP	IW	Mark Hayes		6	77	73	150
125	AP	IW	T	BD	Monty Leong *		7	76	75	151
126	IW	T	BD	AP	Arnold Palmer *		11	78	77	155
127	BD	AP	IW	T	Doug Sanders *		17	78	83	161

.	Sub Par	   Avg. Sub   Total Avg.
AP	20	   -3.95        70.25
[COLOR=orangered]AP	24	   -3.71        69.63[/COLOR]

BD	25	   -3.72        69.41
[COLOR=orangered]BD	28	   -4.04	68.69[/COLOR]

IW	27	   -3.78        69.09
[COLOR=orangered]IW	22	   -4.41	69.13[/COLOR]

T	28	   -4.61        68.19
[COLOR=orangered]T	25	   -3.40	69.69[/COLOR]


Day 1
[COLOR=orangered]Day 2[/COLOR]

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd 0-1 Flesch loses to Andrade by 1.
Having a hard time getting a selection to break par.Toms tue and Flesch yesterday.Having uncanny knack of picking their clinker round.

No lines up yet @ 5dimes,Camalot or Cascade????
Do have 2 I'm playing @ $plays

Triplett +110 over Haas
Like this one less than 2 previous losers.Trip generally steady but Haas playing some of his best golf.Hate to oppose him as he has been great moneymaker past 8 months.

Howell -105 over Weir
Weir appears to be falling into same scenario when having him as outright 2 weeks back.Comes out firing then can't make a putt.

 

[bettingmad]

The stagger has started to unwind a little and although this is a round earlier than I had intended to bet, the 25/1 McCarron www.tote.co.uk was too tempting. (Generally 16/1 but as low as 12/1 in places)

He has a top 20 last year, 5th in the Mercedes last time out and ended last season with 4th, 6th & 18th

From Nomad's figures it's interesting that 7 of the top 11 have played both T & BD (inc McCarron) which of the leaders could point to Senden & Elkington (classy player when in good health) as they still have both to play - but is it due to pin positions? Tamarisk played easiest day one but hardest day two. Let's hope AP is due the easier positions today

 

[ozball]

Hey guys, is there no cut in the Bob Hope? it's not clear on the PGA tour site at all...

thanks in advance

ozball

 

[Zen]

I think cut comes after 4th round, not sure, but seems so if you look last year results.