ucla -12.........
this is one of my favorite plays this bowl season.
there are a few reasons why i like ucla.......
ucla & wyoming played one common opponent...that was san diego st.at home & a week apart, with both winning & holding sdst.to 10 points.ucla scored 33 points & wyoming scored 20 points. ucla ended up with 410 total yards to wyoming?s 264 total yards.
take away the 53 points they scored at unlv in a triple ot win (wyoming was outgained by 110 yds.) & the cowboys scored 0, 13,7, & 9 in their other games away from home this year.....that averages about 7.25 pts. per game.
since dropping their opener to ok.st., ucla has averaged 32 ppg with a very balanced attack.they have rushed for more than 200 total yards in 6 games, including an incredible 424 yards vs. washingtron. their top runners, drew & white (weighs 245 lbs.), running behind an offensive line that averages out to 6'6'' & 307 lbs should have a field day vs. a small (average weight of 266 lbs) defensive line of wyoming that yields an average of 184 rushing yards per game. through the air, ucla has averaged about 230 yds. per game. they have big play receivers in bragg,perry, taylor, & a 6'6'' tight end in lewis that should over whelm wyoming's defensive backs.
we all know about ucla's poor run defense. but i don't think wyoming has the running attack to take advantage of that weakness. the cowboy's top runner,harrison averages a very mediocre 3.7 yds per rush.....against such defenses as appalachan st.,la monroe,tex. a & m, miss., col. st., etc. wyoming's qb has thrown 10 td. passes & 12 ints.
ucla is 4-1 ats as favorites & has 4 wins by 18 points or more. they are 4-0-1 ats in their last 5 vs. mountain west teams. ucla is 14-0 ats in their last 14 wins su wins away from following a su loss. wyoming is 0-9 su in it's last 9 games away from home vs. winning teams. mountain west teams, not named utah, were 0-7 su & 1-6 ats vs. pac-10 teams in 2004.
by playing 10 + dogs in pre-jan.1 bowl games between 1996-1999 you would have gone 5-0. however if you played 10 + dogs in 2000 & after you would have gone 6-8 ats, including 2-3 ats last year.
i don't think that ucla will take wyoming lightly tonight because they have something to prove. they lost last year to fresno in a bowl game & with their cross town rivals, usc playing for the national championship ucla needs a big victory to help with the recruiting & to keep the alumni happy.and i think a close win won't do it. they need to win big.
i see a 3 td win tonight.
good luck.
