bowl plays & other stuff....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks guys...appreciate it....
2.5*rutgers+11.....
this game features a team who hasn't been to a bowl game(rutgers) since the carter administration against a team (arizona st.) who had high expections entering this year.
last year asu finished the year 9-3 & with 14 starters coming back, asu actually thought that they would challenge usc for the pac-10 title.instead, their qb got hurt & their defense played terribly ranking #114th in the nation & they stumbled to a 6-5 record.....i wonder about asu's desire to be in this game.....
although rutgers didn't play as tough a schedule as arizona st, they do come into this game with a defense that gives up 118 yds. per game less than asu.....also rutgers has a stronger offensive bacfield with a veteran qb,& solid tailback & fullback. but what might be the difference in this game is the match-up against the rutgers defensive line (46 sacks) vs. the arizona offensive line(allowed 35 sacks)...i think rutgers can hang with asu in this game
finally, dogs of 7 points or more in minor bowl games are 46-21-4 ats (68.6%) since 1981....
good luck....
2.5*rutgers+11.....
this game features a team who hasn't been to a bowl game(rutgers) since the carter administration against a team (arizona st.) who had high expections entering this year.
last year asu finished the year 9-3 & with 14 starters coming back, asu actually thought that they would challenge usc for the pac-10 title.instead, their qb got hurt & their defense played terribly ranking #114th in the nation & they stumbled to a 6-5 record.....i wonder about asu's desire to be in this game.....
although rutgers didn't play as tough a schedule as arizona st, they do come into this game with a defense that gives up 118 yds. per game less than asu.....also rutgers has a stronger offensive bacfield with a veteran qb,& solid tailback & fullback. but what might be the difference in this game is the match-up against the rutgers defensive line (46 sacks) vs. the arizona offensive line(allowed 35 sacks)...i think rutgers can hang with asu in this game
finally, dogs of 7 points or more in minor bowl games are 46-21-4 ats (68.6%) since 1981....
good luck....
...great info as always and a nice call on Arky St the other night and on Toledo last night, Al. Glad that I decided to pass on that game.... 
I like Rutgers...played them at +13 when the lines opened.
Also, in regards to your question herein above about "now we have to figure out what teams can rush for over 200 yards...
2 that come to mind are...toledo & navy....maybe memphis.....any others?"
My numbers would show the 3 that you mentioned plus Cal (tonight), Nevada (but I took the other side in my bowl pool...probably a pass for me), and Minny (should easily get over 200 yards on the ground).... A couple that come close, at least according to my screwed up numbers, are Oklahoma and Georgia. (I have both of them outrushing their opponents and both gaining over 165 on the ground....) :scared
Has anyone looked into AR's other question???
"teams that are coming off a su win as a dog of 7 points or more are 4-17 ats (19%) in neutral site bowl games when not getting at least 6 points.....
also bowl favorites that ended the regular season with b2b wins & a revenge win in their last game are 19-47 ats (28.7%).....
both angles above apply against nevada.....any other teams ?"
Al,
...looks like you're off to a great start. Keep up the great work and enjoy the holiday season, buddy. All the best to you and yours....
I like Rutgers...played them at +13 when the lines opened.
Also, in regards to your question herein above about "now we have to figure out what teams can rush for over 200 yards...
2 that come to mind are...toledo & navy....maybe memphis.....any others?"
My numbers would show the 3 that you mentioned plus Cal (tonight), Nevada (but I took the other side in my bowl pool...probably a pass for me), and Minny (should easily get over 200 yards on the ground).... A couple that come close, at least according to my screwed up numbers, are Oklahoma and Georgia. (I have both of them outrushing their opponents and both gaining over 165 on the ground....) :scared
Has anyone looked into AR's other question???
"teams that are coming off a su win as a dog of 7 points or more are 4-17 ats (19%) in neutral site bowl games when not getting at least 6 points.....
also bowl favorites that ended the regular season with b2b wins & a revenge win in their last game are 19-47 ats (28.7%).....
both angles above apply against nevada.....any other teams ?"
Al,
...looks like you're off to a great start. Keep up the great work and enjoy the holiday season, buddy. All the best to you and yours....
thanks guys.....
was fortunate that i had calif.at -6....thought for sure that was going to be a double digit win...but the coach went conservative in the 4th quarter...
2-0 so far in the bowls....
playing 2 teasers both for 2.5*....
gt-1
u 53.5
utah's starting qb got hurt in the next to last game of the season, so their new qb will be making his 2nd start against a very tought gt defense.....i don't trust laying over a td with gt as long as ball is the starting qb...he makes too many stupid mistakes for my liking, but think that gt will be able to run against a soft utah run defense.....gt's games have gone under in 8 of the 11 games played this year....
penn. st.p
u 55
i like penn. st. in this game & may still take them, but in case i don't i wanted to at least get this bet in because i don't think that the score will get past 45.....imo, fsu won't be able to sustain any type of offense against what any be the best defense in the nation & because of offensive line problems, i think the fsu qb will be under alot of pressure & will make mistakes...i also don't see penn. st. doing that much on offense because of fsu's defensive speed, but do think that psu will have shorter fields to work with...
good luck.
was fortunate that i had calif.at -6....thought for sure that was going to be a double digit win...but the coach went conservative in the 4th quarter...
2-0 so far in the bowls....
playing 2 teasers both for 2.5*....
gt-1
u 53.5
utah's starting qb got hurt in the next to last game of the season, so their new qb will be making his 2nd start against a very tought gt defense.....i don't trust laying over a td with gt as long as ball is the starting qb...he makes too many stupid mistakes for my liking, but think that gt will be able to run against a soft utah run defense.....gt's games have gone under in 8 of the 11 games played this year....
penn. st.p
u 55
i like penn. st. in this game & may still take them, but in case i don't i wanted to at least get this bet in because i don't think that the score will get past 45.....imo, fsu won't be able to sustain any type of offense against what any be the best defense in the nation & because of offensive line problems, i think the fsu qb will be under alot of pressure & will make mistakes...i also don't see penn. st. doing that much on offense because of fsu's defensive speed, but do think that psu will have shorter fields to work with...
good luck.
AL,
Thanks for all the support information that you share each week in this and other forums and I hope you and your family have a great Christmas and New Year!
Thanks for all the support information that you share each week in this and other forums and I hope you and your family have a great Christmas and New Year!
HAPPY HOLIDAYS AR and Family.. Keep up all the great posts... GL
AR ,are you on UCF considering your angle against Nevada? Thanks......
AR ,are you on UCF considering your angle against Nevada? Thanks......
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thanks pro...to you & your loved ones as well...
sorry i just saw your post....i didn't play last night's game mostly because i had non-football guests last night & didn't want to keep running to my office to get scores.....hope you played & cashed....
so far i'm 3-0 +10.00*in the bowl games...
i already posted these plays...all for 2.5*..
rutgers +11
2 teasers...
g.t.-1
u 53.5
penn. st.p
u 55
adding.....
5*iowa +4 (128)...
i got this early...but think that they will win su....
i'm a big fan of the iowa's coach & i think he usually does a fine job in bowl preparation as witnessed by the 4 times that iowa's been in a bowl game under ferentz.....they have been single digit dogs in all 4 bowl games & won 3 su.....
the big improvement in iowa's offense this year has been in the running attack.....last year, they had many injuries to their backs & only rushed for 73 yards per game at about 2 ypr....this year they are averaging about 194 yds. per game at 5.5 ypr (against teams that on the average allowed 4.7 ypr)....their qb, tate (i like him alot) averaged 7.6 yd. per pass play against teams that on the avergae allowed 5.7 ypp.....fla's. defense faced 5 better than avergae qb's this season ( bama,lsu, vandy,so. car., & fla. st) & allowed them to throw for 7.5 yppp...on the average these qb's from those 5 teams averaged 6.8 ypp vs. an avergae defense.....so iowa should be able to move the ball vs.fla's. defense....there are a few problems with fla's. offense this year....the players are playing in an offense that they weren't recruited to play....they have also lost their star receiver, caldwell for the season.....since his absence, fla. has averaged 5.3 yppl to teams that allow 5.1 yppl on the average....iowa's defense allows 5.0 yppl on the average to teams that average 5.6 yppl....iowa wins su...
good luck.
sorry i just saw your post....i didn't play last night's game mostly because i had non-football guests last night & didn't want to keep running to my office to get scores.....hope you played & cashed....
so far i'm 3-0 +10.00*in the bowl games...
i already posted these plays...all for 2.5*..
rutgers +11
2 teasers...
g.t.-1
u 53.5
penn. st.p
u 55
adding.....
5*iowa +4 (128)...
i got this early...but think that they will win su....
i'm a big fan of the iowa's coach & i think he usually does a fine job in bowl preparation as witnessed by the 4 times that iowa's been in a bowl game under ferentz.....they have been single digit dogs in all 4 bowl games & won 3 su.....
the big improvement in iowa's offense this year has been in the running attack.....last year, they had many injuries to their backs & only rushed for 73 yards per game at about 2 ypr....this year they are averaging about 194 yds. per game at 5.5 ypr (against teams that on the average allowed 4.7 ypr)....their qb, tate (i like him alot) averaged 7.6 yd. per pass play against teams that on the avergae allowed 5.7 ypp.....fla's. defense faced 5 better than avergae qb's this season ( bama,lsu, vandy,so. car., & fla. st) & allowed them to throw for 7.5 yppp...on the average these qb's from those 5 teams averaged 6.8 ypp vs. an avergae defense.....so iowa should be able to move the ball vs.fla's. defense....there are a few problems with fla's. offense this year....the players are playing in an offense that they weren't recruited to play....they have also lost their star receiver, caldwell for the season.....since his absence, fla. has averaged 5.3 yppl to teams that allow 5.1 yppl on the average....iowa's defense allows 5.0 yppl on the average to teams that average 5.6 yppl....iowa wins su...
good luck.
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2.5*w. virginia +8.....
i think this is another live dog who successfully runs the ball & plays sound defense.....in their last 5 games,w. vir. has rushed for over 1500 yards & on defense they allow 2.6 ypr & rank 13th against the run.....i think that they will be able to run on georgia's defense...& may evrn be able to pull the upset....
good luck.
i think this is another live dog who successfully runs the ball & plays sound defense.....in their last 5 games,w. vir. has rushed for over 1500 yards & on defense they allow 2.6 ypr & rank 13th against the run.....i think that they will be able to run on georgia's defense...& may evrn be able to pull the upset....
good luck.
Good Luck AR hope all is well Been looking for this one Akron is not that good Mempis shold run all over them.. Large one for me.
thanks guys...
1*col.+11(120)......
i read that teams that end the season with 2 or more losses are 24-10-1 ats (70.5%) as a bowl dog of more than 3 points & with 3 or more losses are 7-2 ats)....
i would make this a regular play if i knew how colorado would react to eveything that has happened around them....head coach fired, starting qb not playing & getting destroyed by texas in the big 12 championship......
here is an angle that pertains to games other than the col/clemson game.....
play on any college dog of 7 or more points if they were favored by 14 or more points in their final game of the season....
since 1980 the ats record is 13-4......76.4%
play on rutgers & lousiville.....
good luck.
1*col.+11(120)......
i read that teams that end the season with 2 or more losses are 24-10-1 ats (70.5%) as a bowl dog of more than 3 points & with 3 or more losses are 7-2 ats)....
i would make this a regular play if i knew how colorado would react to eveything that has happened around them....head coach fired, starting qb not playing & getting destroyed by texas in the big 12 championship......
here is an angle that pertains to games other than the col/clemson game.....
play on any college dog of 7 or more points if they were favored by 14 or more points in their final game of the season....
since 1980 the ats record is 13-4......76.4%
play on rutgers & lousiville.....
good luck.
bowl record.....5-0...+13.50*
have been lucky in a few games....hopefully my luck will continue......
already posted....
teaser...
2.5*penn.st.p & u 55...
adding another...
2.5*penn.st.-7(120)....
jumped on this when the line was at 7.5 & bought down to 7....was anticipating the line would move upward, which it has & try to hit the middle.....but changed my mind after reading more info on the game....
eventhough fla. st. upset vt in the acc championship game, they only gained 272 total yards (61 rushing yards) & 15 firstdowns....penn. st.'s defense is arguably in the top 5 in the country....when fsu's qb faced 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country, he completed 48% of his passes for an average of 189 yds. per game & 6/9 td/int ratio....with the problems & injuries fsu has had on the offensive line, i don't see fsu doing much vs. probably the best defensive line in the country....i expect weatherford to throw int.(he threw 17 for the season)....expect penn. st.to work from a short field on some possessions....on the other side of the field i do expect psu to be able to move some on the fsu defense.....
2.5*minn.-3....
this is another game where i was thinking of playing the middle, but again changed my mind....
minn. should have no trouble running against a virginia defense that gives up about 150 rushing yards per game....especially since virginia will be without linebacker brooks, their best defensive player & without their starting strong safety......the reason why i'm not making this a stronger play is because i don't trust the minn. qb or their defense to completely shut down the virginia offense...
good luck...
have been lucky in a few games....hopefully my luck will continue......
already posted....
teaser...
2.5*penn.st.p & u 55...
adding another...
2.5*penn.st.-7(120)....
jumped on this when the line was at 7.5 & bought down to 7....was anticipating the line would move upward, which it has & try to hit the middle.....but changed my mind after reading more info on the game....
eventhough fla. st. upset vt in the acc championship game, they only gained 272 total yards (61 rushing yards) & 15 firstdowns....penn. st.'s defense is arguably in the top 5 in the country....when fsu's qb faced 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country, he completed 48% of his passes for an average of 189 yds. per game & 6/9 td/int ratio....with the problems & injuries fsu has had on the offensive line, i don't see fsu doing much vs. probably the best defensive line in the country....i expect weatherford to throw int.(he threw 17 for the season)....expect penn. st.to work from a short field on some possessions....on the other side of the field i do expect psu to be able to move some on the fsu defense.....
2.5*minn.-3....
this is another game where i was thinking of playing the middle, but again changed my mind....
minn. should have no trouble running against a virginia defense that gives up about 150 rushing yards per game....especially since virginia will be without linebacker brooks, their best defensive player & without their starting strong safety......the reason why i'm not making this a stronger play is because i don't trust the minn. qb or their defense to completely shut down the virginia offense...
good luck...
don't know how interested bc & mich will be today in their respective bowls...so in the early game...i played...
1*bc-125ml
1*boise +4 (130)....
i can either lose $25-$30 or win $200....this will keep me interested somewhat in the game & also keep me off the streets....
good luck...
1*bc-125ml
1*boise +4 (130)....
i can either lose $25-$30 or win $200....this will keep me interested somewhat in the game & also keep me off the streets....
good luck...
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Great start to the bowl season AR :clap: Glad to see you on Minny and love that Penn State teaser (I'll be adding that one to my card) Also wouldn't be disappointed to see the Eagles win by one. GL
AR182 said:
This was posted less than an hour ago.
minn-3
I need a new sportbook that has that line. What book offers this? whatever the referral is for a couple thousand dollar deposit would be gladly sent over to your account for recommending a new customer.
thanks guys..appreciate it...
yipyip....
i played minn. when the lines first came out.....i wasn't ready to post it at that time because i was thinking of playing viriginia at a later date & going for the middle..but decided against it....
there are many times i don't post plays when i first get them...for various reasons.....in other words i post games when i'm ready to post them....sorry if that causes a problem....my plays at the lines that i post can be verified, if need be..
good luck
yipyip....
i played minn. when the lines first came out.....i wasn't ready to post it at that time because i was thinking of playing viriginia at a later date & going for the middle..but decided against it....
there are many times i don't post plays when i first get them...for various reasons.....in other words i post games when i'm ready to post them....sorry if that causes a problem....my plays at the lines that i post can be verified, if need be..
good luck
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