Boxing 04/13 - 04/15

[LordoftheLunch]

Here we go with some early odds:

Denis Boytsov -1200
Dominick Guinn +800

Felix Sturm -180
Sebastian Zbik +160

Michael Katsidis -850
Albert Mensah +600

Audley Harrison -200
Ali Adams +160

Tyson Fury -600
Martin Rogan +450

Mercito Gesta -100000
Oscar Cuero +1600

Juan Manuel Marquez -1000
Serhiy Fedchenko +850

Mike Alvarado -800
Mauricio Herrera +500

Brandon Rios -500
Richard Abril +475

 

[THE_THONG]

zbik :SIB

 

[fastfrank]

zbik :SIB

Why? What do you see in Zbik that will beat Sturm?

 

[Habecki]

Little stunned by how big a fav Rios is, 5d out with -1200/+600. I honestly don't think Rios is much of a fav at all, let alone a huge fav. I guess having the cards probably taken care is worth a lot but still.

Abril's two losses were controversial and against solid foes. Last I saw Rios he was having a hard time with a made to order opponent who stood right in front of him and went toe to toe with no defense for Brandon's uppercuts.

My view of this fight in accordance with the line is so off I'm certain I must be missing something. :shrug:

 

[THE_THONG]

Why? What do you see in Zbik that will beat Sturm?

new vs old

:mj07:

 

[THE_THONG]

Little stunned by how big a fav Rios is, 5d out with -1200/+600. I honestly don't think Rios is much of a fav at all, let alone a huge fav. I guess having the cards probably taken care is worth a lot but still.

i read acosta took the abril fight on 3 days notice

and brandon rios beat the living stuffing out of acosta to soften him up for abril

so i would drop rios into a parlay, i seen him down to -535 at 5dimes

rios and marquez should win to set up their mega fight at dallas cowboys stadium :0corn

 

[THE_THONG]

Why? What do you see in Zbik that will beat Sturm?

i based most of my handicapping on this photo from an insider in germany

:mj07:

 

[LordoftheLunch]

zbik :SIB

At current odds, I like him too, BUT

Its in Sturms hometown and the fight will go to the cards, so... hmmm

Already played the over a few weeks back and the Draw. Not sure if I will spent some money on a straight bet as I think zbik has a kinda 50/50 chance and we get +170 but I am not sure how much homecourt advantage (crowd + promotion) will play into the final result.

Cheers
LotL

 

[december26]

Sturm vs. Zbik

Sturm vs. Zbik

-If you all recall, Zbik was originally scheduled to face Grzegorz Proksa for his EBU title. The fight fell through when Felix Sturm outbid the promoters of both fighters, Sauerland and Matchroom, respectively, and I believe Zbik was not happy w/ this because Sturm is a rival and he'd essentially be a worker to his boss. Perhaps Sturm knew this all along and purposely won the bid to secure a fight w/ Zbik, as we all know Sturm very meticulously chooses his opponents these days.

-On another note, it is two days 'til fight night for Rios, and I'm getting that feeling yet again of fearing for his health. I see it in his eyes the struggle to make weight, and I can't think of another major fighter who has more difficulty making weight. There's one picture here of Rios on the bike, which suggests he still is not at weight.

http://www.examiner.com/boxing-in-l...top-rank-gym-las-vegas-picture#slide=45748936

 

[THE_THONG]

all kidding aside

i like zbik's handspeed, fresher legs and his experience with chavez jr

zbik used that muff defense and chavez jr tapped his body, so expect zbik to use a couple new wrinkles

i know it is sturm's promotion, but that doesnt gurantee a win, if you cannot fight for three minutes
a round youre going uphill in the eyes of the judges

 

[LordoftheLunch]

-On another note, it is two days 'til fight night for Rios, and I'm getting that feeling yet again of fearing for his health. I see it in his eyes the struggle to make weight, and I can't think of another major fighter who has more difficulty making weight. There's one picture here of Rios on the bike, which suggests he still is not at weight.

http://www.examiner.com/boxing-in-l...top-rank-gym-las-vegas-picture#slide=45748936

Very intersting info!

hmmm to be honest my first thoughts had been:

Denis Boytsov (by dec)
Felix Sturm (by dec given the hometown advantage)
Tyson Fury (inside)
Mike Alvarado (straight)
Brandon Rios (straight)

I already played some of those incl. some side bets, e.g. if I think the fight will be won by dec, adding the over makes sense right

But left out Sturm (already mentioned my bets for that fight) and Alvarado and Rios, given I didnt see to much value in the lines... hmmm lets wait and see if we can get more infos on Rios, maybe the dog offers some value, or if he is struggeling to make weight he maybe will have less engery in the fight so it will maybe go longer then we would normaly expect it.

:thinking:

 

[fastfrank]

Zbik/Sturm

Zbik/Sturm

I'm thinking, if ever a fight was begging for a DRAW bet, this is it. That this one most likely goes to the cards seems something we can agree on. A draw is like kissing your sister, but no one gets hurt and all can move on saying they really won ,and have no idea what the judges were looking, at and will file a complaint, etc. Also, Rios looked BAD last time out. I wonder about his work ethic when it comes to training.

 

[fastfrank]

Fury/Rogan round prop...

Fury/Rogan round prop...

Jeez! Rogan fought last what, 1 1/2 years ago; in a 6 rounder versus an 8-14-1 guy. Fury loves knocking out tomato cans, and we have a juicy one here. I think it goes under the 6.5 prop at -110. Oh yea, and did I mention Fury is 23, so they say, and Rogan is a sprite 40. After the 3rd round the bombs start to land.

 

[THE_THONG]

i like fury, too

at -1000 i don't care, rogan is garbage

parlay material


i hope to the gambling gods that sturm-zbik is not a draw :mj07:

i need profits, not pushes

 

[fastfrank]

I have Strum in an open parlay as of now; think I will hedge with Zbik by 12 round decision.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Pics from the weigth-in

Pics from the weigth-in

http://www.boxingscene.com/photos-sturm-vs-zbik-boytsov-vs-guinn-tense-weigh---51686

 

[THE_THONG]

sturm got black eye by sparring partner?

 

[fastfrank]

Marquez-Katsidis fights round props.......

Marquez-Katsidis fights round props.......

Marquez "opponent" is in for a rude awakening. Katsidis' guy has fought the "A" list of no name guys. Yea, Katsidis lost a few, but to the top shelf guys. I took the under 9.5 in both in a parlay. I will have more if more props surface. Maybe tomorrow.

 

[Zerwas]

I like Zbik too, but Sturm will get the close rounds, which is a concern!

Its definately a fight where a draw is a real possibility!!!

Furry HAS to ko Rogan!

Rogan was so gassed against Sexton!

Cant see him lasting the distance with Fury!!!

 

[Habecki]

Taking Zbik at 2-1. He's oozing confidence and I don't think its unfounded, Sturm seems to be fading lately. Zbik should be able to outwork the gun shy Sturm fairly easily. Whether its enough to get the nod that is the real question.

Found Zbik by stoppage/dq at 19-1 at bf, not likely but I find a late stoppage possible.


Thinking about Boytsov under 8.5 +230, Guinn coming in over 230. Coming off two decisive losses and going nowhere it's clear he has no chance and it feels like he is already semi-retired. However he's got a heck of a chin and never been ko'd. Reports suggest he took big shots against Mansour last time out but didn't flinch. Thinking more along the lines of a sympathy stoppage rather than a brutal ko.