Looking for something with value for this week end and it ain't easy so far. Klitschko and the under 9.5 MAY hold some promise, and the line is leaking north. Opened -175 and counting. Thompson may not go quietly so I pass for now. Kelly Pavlik is in semi-tough versus Rosinsky. Pavlik has vastly more experience and both advantages in height and reach. He can also drink more than Rosinsky, but that doesn't count! Pavlik is like around 60% of the old monster he used to be. He throws less with less murderous intentions. He is semi shot. Should go past 7.5 and Pavlik should open -700. David Haye says Cameron will thump Barrett! Whatever.
Boxing; 07/07/2012; some thoughts...
- Thread starter fastfrank
- Start date
Klitschko/Thompson
Klitschko/Thompson
Thompson is like 6'5", so he too is a big boy. If he takes the fight to Klits, it could be interesting. I still think Klits is chinny, so who knows? Also feel underdog Cameron has a shot, a decent one, versus Barrett.
Klitschko/Thompson
Thompson is like 6'5", so he too is a big boy. If he takes the fight to Klits, it could be interesting. I still think Klits is chinny, so who knows? Also feel underdog Cameron has a shot, a decent one, versus Barrett.
My thoughts
My thoughts
I'm hoping to see something playable with the Donaire v. Mathebula fight, and perhaps the over/under with the Fury v. Maddalone fight..
My thoughts
I'm hoping to see something playable with the Donaire v. Mathebula fight, and perhaps the over/under with the Fury v. Maddalone fight..
Line for Thompson/Clinchko is way off imo. First fight was fairly competitive and Thompson had a problem with his leg. Find it hard to give Wladimir a 90%+ chance of winning. Thompson actually landed more punches than Wladimir in their first bout, this should be a real fight again. And we all know Wladimir doesn't have an iron chin.
VERY interested in Donaire fight...
VERY interested in Donaire fight...
According to Manny Steward, the fight with Thompson was Klits toughest and they did not want to fight him again.
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Yeah not only Steward but Wladimir himself said he preferred not to fight Thompson only doing so because he earned it. Shocked how few are giving Thompson a chance, especially considering they already fought and it was no bad mismatch like the odds today suggest.
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Finding odds for the Proksa/Hope rematch not to got the distance at almost 50/50. In the first fight Hope seemed to fight really inspired (commentator mentioned something about his child being born very recently) and was able to walk through quite a few big shots. I'm going to guess he can't do it again, especially at this price. Also the way Proksa throws and loses his balance he is always more likely to be involved in head clashes.
btw - Proksa was robbed in the first fight, no way Hope won 6 rounds. Joke of a decision.
Just to add to the Thompson v klitschko comments. I like Tony Thompson and recall he did have favorable numbers in their 1st fight. And i even was thinking perhaps he can do better this time around. But sometimes when you root a certain way or go by memory, things can get skewed. I re-watched their 1st fight the other day and came away refreshed as to how it really went down. Wlad was sooo much stronger and faster. He was never threatened and Thompson started to fade by the 6th or 7th round. He was just slowly broken down and then put away in the 11th. Klitschko will still be superior physically and will likely score another stoppage. First fight kind of like fools gold for Thompson backers. Wish I could do it but I think he's in for another tough night - but a good payday!
I agree. He want's that scalp bad. Should get it. In opinion only, no assertion of fact, (covering a lawsuit) Kerry had the "look" of a juiced man.
When props appear, I might stab at Thompson by KO at what I expect to be HUGE odds. If he shoots for the fences, who knows. I don't think no matter how much a guy trains, you cannot train him to have granite whiskers. I think that is why Klitschko fights very carefully, always at range. Glass jaw.
Sat 7/7 501 Jeffrey Mathebula +1000
10:00PM 502 Nonito Donaire -1500
Super Middleweight 10 rounds - Home Depot Center - Carson, California - HBO PPV
Sat 7/7 601 Will Rosinsky +775
9:00PM 602 Kelly Pavlik -1200
Geez! PPV; really? Pretty soon the weigh-ins will be PPV! Seems Mathebula is a tall dude, almost 6'; Nonito like 5'5". No doubt this translates to height/reach advantage. Also Mathebula has been at this weight for many years. How powerful will Doniare be as he moves up? Pavlik/Rosinsky same type of deal. Pavlik like 6'2"; Rosinsky like 5'9". I like Pav/Ros to go rounds, likely to the cards. Maybe take a shot with the African also. Line on the Klitschko/Thompson round prop now dropping to 9.5-under-175. Was -225 last night. Very interesting!
10:00PM 502 Nonito Donaire -1500
Super Middleweight 10 rounds - Home Depot Center - Carson, California - HBO PPV
Sat 7/7 601 Will Rosinsky +775
9:00PM 602 Kelly Pavlik -1200
Geez! PPV; really? Pretty soon the weigh-ins will be PPV! Seems Mathebula is a tall dude, almost 6'; Nonito like 5'5". No doubt this translates to height/reach advantage. Also Mathebula has been at this weight for many years. How powerful will Doniare be as he moves up? Pavlik/Rosinsky same type of deal. Pavlik like 6'2"; Rosinsky like 5'9". I like Pav/Ros to go rounds, likely to the cards. Maybe take a shot with the African also. Line on the Klitschko/Thompson round prop now dropping to 9.5-under-175. Was -225 last night. Very interesting!
I really like Thompson, he is very awkward and hew as able to land quite a few punches on Wladimir, but he just isnt a good puncher!!
I expect Wladimir to do a little better!
Donaire is a great fighter, but I wonder if he has moved up too many division already....
He should have too much for Mathebula, but the African is not the kind of opponent with the right risk / reward ratio....(for Donaire and Donaire backers)
I expect Wladimir to do a little better!
Donaire is a great fighter, but I wonder if he has moved up too many division already....
He should have too much for Mathebula, but the African is not the kind of opponent with the right risk / reward ratio....(for Donaire and Donaire backers)
So far one dog won, Cameron. I think maybe out of these 3(Rosinsky/Thompson/Mathebula), one might get through. Big time odds on all 3. Also, need to wait for points props if they appear. I will comment when and if they do as I have some thoughts on that.
About Donaire fight. Shocked how poor Mathebula looks. His shots have ZERO power and are quite wide and loopy. He has very little leg strength and his core/balance is non-existent. After throwing shots he often loses his balance and stumbles through. Even worse for him here is that he actually lets his hands go and has a pretty decent work rate. Holds his left low as well.
This fight was obviously set up carefully by Donaire's team to get him an easy knockout, there is no doubt about it. While Mathebula has decent credentials (don't know how he beat Caballero, I know technically a SD loss) he seems to be more smoke and mirrors than the real deal. Haven't been able to find the details of his stoppage loss so hard to tell if that was 100% legit. However watching his fight against Ndlovu I noticed him falling in and hugging a little desperately after being caught in a couple situations. I don't believe he has a iron chin.
Mathebula will box and try to get on his bike but Donaire is too quick/eager and will eventually time up bombs to Mathebula's who is open to virtually everything. I will be slightly surprised if this enters the second half of the fight.
I find the odds on the Under rounds/Donaire stoppage rather incredible.
This fight was obviously set up carefully by Donaire's team to get him an easy knockout, there is no doubt about it. While Mathebula has decent credentials (don't know how he beat Caballero, I know technically a SD loss) he seems to be more smoke and mirrors than the real deal. Haven't been able to find the details of his stoppage loss so hard to tell if that was 100% legit. However watching his fight against Ndlovu I noticed him falling in and hugging a little desperately after being caught in a couple situations. I don't believe he has a iron chin.
Mathebula will box and try to get on his bike but Donaire is too quick/eager and will eventually time up bombs to Mathebula's who is open to virtually everything. I will be slightly surprised if this enters the second half of the fight.
I find the odds on the Under rounds/Donaire stoppage rather incredible.
FNF on ESPN2
FNF on ESPN2
(Magomed Abdusalamov v. Maurice Byarm - 7.5 rounds over @ +240)
My first reaction when I saw the 7.5 under @ -300 was that it's a bit high. Mago is Sampson Lewkowicz's prized heavyweight prospect. In the amateurs he showed good bodywork, but once he turned pro, he's become a one trick pony and head hunter, relying on his powerful left hand from the southpaw stance. Due to his tremendous left hand, he has a terrible work rate. He has virtually no head movement and as a result is a magnet for the straight right hand, but looks like he can take a good punch so far. He's never been past 4 rounds and all of his 14 pro fights have ended in KOs. Byarm himself had never been past 6 'til his last fight w/ Bryant Jennings, which went the 10 round distance. It was a great action bout where Byarm took Jennings' best, so it looks like he has a good chin as well. Jennings went on to KO Siarhei Liakhovich so his power is respectable. Byarm is by far and wide Mago's first real competition, and is a massive step up in class. Byarm himself seems to realize the seriousness of this bout, as he came in at a career low 239 lbs. Knocking out blown up cruiserweights and fat heavyweights is one thing, even w/ real power. I think this fight goes the distance, w/ both fighters possessing solid chins, Byarm armed w/ the experience of going the distance, the knowledge of Mago's lack of experience in deep waters, and the awareness of his one and only weapon. As a matter of fact, I may even consider picking Byarm to pull off the upset @ +475.
FNF on ESPN2
(Magomed Abdusalamov v. Maurice Byarm - 7.5 rounds over @ +240)
My first reaction when I saw the 7.5 under @ -300 was that it's a bit high. Mago is Sampson Lewkowicz's prized heavyweight prospect. In the amateurs he showed good bodywork, but once he turned pro, he's become a one trick pony and head hunter, relying on his powerful left hand from the southpaw stance. Due to his tremendous left hand, he has a terrible work rate. He has virtually no head movement and as a result is a magnet for the straight right hand, but looks like he can take a good punch so far. He's never been past 4 rounds and all of his 14 pro fights have ended in KOs. Byarm himself had never been past 6 'til his last fight w/ Bryant Jennings, which went the 10 round distance. It was a great action bout where Byarm took Jennings' best, so it looks like he has a good chin as well. Jennings went on to KO Siarhei Liakhovich so his power is respectable. Byarm is by far and wide Mago's first real competition, and is a massive step up in class. Byarm himself seems to realize the seriousness of this bout, as he came in at a career low 239 lbs. Knocking out blown up cruiserweights and fat heavyweights is one thing, even w/ real power. I think this fight goes the distance, w/ both fighters possessing solid chins, Byarm armed w/ the experience of going the distance, the knowledge of Mago's lack of experience in deep waters, and the awareness of his one and only weapon. As a matter of fact, I may even consider picking Byarm to pull off the upset @ +475.
Abdusalamov appears to hit a lot harder than Jennings imo. Jennings did touch Byarm with excellent combinations which he took pretty well. Abdusalamov more a one punch at a time plodder but no doubt to me he hits pretty damn hard.
Russian is slow and a bit mechanical in there but I'm not sure if Byarm has enough to beat him. Byarm himself isn't a mover per say and I don't think he has enough power to slow down and gain the respect of Abdusalamov.
Russian is slow and a bit mechanical in there but I'm not sure if Byarm has enough to beat him. Byarm himself isn't a mover per say and I don't think he has enough power to slow down and gain the respect of Abdusalamov.
The fight was four years ago, and Wlad won comfortably. In four years time, Wlad has gotten better, Thompson has gotten older and slower. To boot, Thompson was never a speedy HW anyhow. Thompson SAID he had a leg problem, which to me, sounds like another fighter making another excuse for losing. Wlad has the advantages in speed, power, experience, and the crowd will be behind him.
Wlad might not have the greatest chin, but let's be honest, how many times has it betrayed him for a loss? Just the Sanders fight. Sanders is a quick handed southpaw, with power. Thompson is a average hand speed HW, with average power. The Purrity fight he just tanked on gas. Brewster is still odd to me, but let's assume he just tanked on energy there too. Since Manny has joined up as the FT trainer, how many times has Wlad looked anywhere close to running out of gas?
Thompson didn't look great in the Witherspoon fight, taking three times as long to stop him as Arreola/Mitchell did. He looked like he was fighting under water against Harris. This fight, IMO, is nothing more than a good payday for Thompson. I'd be surprised if it got to the over, Wlad in 8.....Thompson will be broken down again, only faster this time.....Thompson has never beaten a B level fighter, let along an A.....
Sells the fight better. Manny also said that if all things go to plan, Wlad would have him out of there in 5. In no way was Thompson tougher than Peter I, or even Iggy (although terribly boring), for that matter....
Remember when Manny compared Mormeck to Tyson......:shrug:
No need to sell the fight better, they always sell out anyways.
You seem to have a bias towards Wladimir. Saying in the last 4 years he has gotten better while Thompson has simply gotten older and slower. Last I checked Wladimir is 4 years older as well and is not a spring chicken himself.
As far as the injury I don't see any reason to believe Thompson was faking the limping. Pretty certain he has had two surgeries on that knee since the fight.
And Wladimir doesn't have a good chin, its not just about his conditioning. The lack of conditioning surely helped that weakness get exposed but the fact remains he has a weak beard. Its the reason he always want to fight at distance and refuses to operate on the inside. He is CLINCHko for a reason.
Bottom line Thompson gave him a decent fight before and he has come in good shape for the rematch. The fact Thompson can reach Wladimir is more then enough to back 12-1+ odds. Thompson is a 40 year old man who's been in the ring before with this man, he is unlikely to be afraid or in awe of the situation.
You seem to have a bias towards Wladimir. Saying in the last 4 years he has gotten better while Thompson has simply gotten older and slower. Last I checked Wladimir is 4 years older as well and is not a spring chicken himself.
As far as the injury I don't see any reason to believe Thompson was faking the limping. Pretty certain he has had two surgeries on that knee since the fight.
And Wladimir doesn't have a good chin, its not just about his conditioning. The lack of conditioning surely helped that weakness get exposed but the fact remains he has a weak beard. Its the reason he always want to fight at distance and refuses to operate on the inside. He is CLINCHko for a reason.
Bottom line Thompson gave him a decent fight before and he has come in good shape for the rematch. The fact Thompson can reach Wladimir is more then enough to back 12-1+ odds. Thompson is a 40 year old man who's been in the ring before with this man, he is unlikely to be afraid or in awe of the situation.
He's selling the fight to the fans, as far as Thompson being an opponent that is a threat. He compared Mormeck to Tyson, so Manny has attempted to persuade the public in the past on opponents being legit threats.
Again, aside from the Sanders fight, what fight has Wlad lost directly due to his chin? Yes, he's been down, but has gotten back up to win. Wlad has also never been KO'd cold. Is his chin great, no. Is it better than what people make it out to be, yes. Why wouldn't Wlad fight on the outside, even if he had a chin like McCall? He has height/reach on just about every opponent.
What advantage does Thompson have over Wlad? I guess you could say his chin, but honestly, what banger has Thompson ever been in the ring with to say he has a solid chin? Wlad....and he was KO'd cold....You are basing off Thompson having a shot...by giving Wlad a "tough" fight 4 years ago. Meanwhile you don't mention the fact Thompson has never even beaten a B rated fighter, has looked awful in his last few fights, or what advantage he has in this fight.....
