Boxing; 07/07/2012; some thoughts...

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Habecki

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Never seen someone so excited over the prospects of a 1-20 fighter getting it done.

Fact is Thompson touched Wladimir with regularity in the first fight and that within itself is enough to take him at these long odds. In heavyweight bouts one punch can always end a fight. In almost every fight the Klitschko's have a supreme height/reach adv, Thompson is the rare exception.

imo Wladimir is always vulnerable if challenged seriously. I don't think he's a warrior in there. If a healthy Thompson can fight out of the clinches and start to rough him up on the inside Wladimir could easily wilt.
 
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armageto

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Habecki said:
Never seen someone so excited over the prospects of a 1-20 fighter getting it done.

Fact is Thompson touched Wladimir with regularity in the first fight and that within itself is enough to take him at these long odds. In heavyweight bouts one punch can always end a fight. In almost every fight the Klitschko's have a supreme height/reach adv, Thompson is the rare exception.

imo Wladimir is always vulnerable if challenged seriously. I don't think he's a warrior in there. If a healthy Thompson can fight out of the clinches and start to rough him up on the inside Wladimir could easily wilt.
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If he touched him regularly (Which he did land some), why didn't Wlad's terrible chin crack? I'm sorry, I don't see how a 4 year older of Thompson will/should do better. He doesn't have the power/speed to get to Wlad and hurt him, IMO. You haven't offered up one advantage that Thompson has. I don't see it going to the over or the odds being feasible to lay money on. Byarm, at lesser odds, has a more realistic chance at scoring the upset. Cameron seemed like a really good underdog bet. Just seems like a waste of money, even with the wide odds....

If you are going to bet on Thompson, I don't see the point of doing it outright. He'll never outbox Wlad. Thompson by KO, or Thompson by KO in rounds 7-12 seem like the more feasible plays, if you back Thompson....
 
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december26

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Habecki said:
Abdusalamov appears to hit a lot harder than Jennings imo. Jennings did touch Byarm with excellent combinations which he took pretty well. Abdusalamov more a one punch at a time plodder but no doubt to me he hits pretty damn hard.

Russian is slow and a bit mechanical in there but I'm not sure if Byarm has enough to beat him. Byarm himself isn't a mover per say and I don't think he has enough power to slow down and gain the respect of Abdusalamov.
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Mago def hits harder than Jennings but it's one at a time, much easier to avoid than Jennings' combos. My play here is on the 7.5 over though, I was only contemplating Byarm.
 
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fastfrank

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Fury/Maddalone

Fury/Maddalone

Play: under-7.5-215. Maddalone been eating marsh mellows. Now sitting down to a feast of huge right hands.
 
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december26

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december26 said:
(Magomed Abdusalamov v. Maurice Byarm - 7.5 rounds over @ +240)

My first reaction when I saw the 7.5 under @ -300 was that it's a bit high. Mago is Sampson Lewkowicz's prized heavyweight prospect. In the amateurs he showed good bodywork, but once he turned pro, he's become a one trick pony and head hunter, relying on his powerful left hand from the southpaw stance. Due to his tremendous left hand, he has a terrible work rate. He has virtually no head movement and as a result is a magnet for the straight right hand, but looks like he can take a good punch so far. He's never been past 4 rounds and all of his 14 pro fights have ended in KOs. Byarm himself had never been past 6 'til his last fight w/ Bryant Jennings, which went the 10 round distance. It was a great action bout where Byarm took Jennings' best, so it looks like he has a good chin as well. Jennings went on to KO Siarhei Liakhovich so his power is respectable. Byarm is by far and wide Mago's first real competition, and is a massive step up in class. Byarm himself seems to realize the seriousness of this bout, as he came in at a career low 239 lbs. Knocking out blown up cruiserweights and fat heavyweights is one thing, even w/ real power. I think this fight goes the distance, w/ both fighters possessing solid chins, Byarm armed w/ the experience of going the distance, the knowledge of Mago's lack of experience in deep waters, and the awareness of his one and only weapon. As a matter of fact, I may even consider picking Byarm to pull off the upset @ +475.
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Under is now down to +175.
 
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fastfrank

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armageto said:
I think more value in the decision, Cruz is pretty durable, although long in the tooth. Fortuna might get him out of there, good luck either way.....
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I totally understand your train of thought. Fortuna is faster and more powerful, so how much punishment can an old warrior tolerate? Tough business this boxing stuff.
 
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december26

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Well damn that was quick..Mago wins via 2nd rd KO and it could've ended earlier :shrug:
 
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fastfrank

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december26 said:
Well damn that was quick..Mago wins via 2nd rd KO and it could've ended earlier :shrug:
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The way Byarm stood in the corner covering up; not tying up, not moving his head, doing nothing, it almost looked like he WANTED to get put to sleep. He could have taken a knee even. What a fuking mook.
 
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LordoftheLunch

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Play

Play

Fury inside -400

Donaire under 11.5 -130

Kell B. over 9.5 +110

Klitschko not the distance -400
Fight starts 6,7,8

Rees not the distance -120

Lee Haskins v Stuart Hall Draw +2500
Over -130
 
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Habecki

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Plenty of action today, appears to be some good bets out there.

Tony "The Tiger" Thompson at 12-1+ odds

Proksa/Hope, Rees/Matthews, Donaire/Mathebula all under rounds/end inside the distance. Like them all quite a bit, especially the Donaire under. I think Donaire wins easily in the first half of the fight.

Rees/Matthews should be a war like almost all of Matthews fights. Matthews all action style is pleasing to watch but strange as he has consistently shown a lack of durability. His 6 losses all stoppage losses and almost all to guys with pedestrian ko rates. Even in his last fight where he scored a nice upset he appeared to be hurt to the body in the last round before the ref called it off. Also can't discount another premature stoppage due to cuts like the first encounter.

Small plays on Carson Jones and the under rounds in this fight as well. Jones a pretty offensive fighter who sits down on his punches and throws nice combinations. I would think Brook just tries to use his better athletic ability to outbox Jones but after all the trash talk I get the feeling he will try to mix it up here and there. Brook was momentarily stunned by a low level foe a few years ago so I wonder about his chin. Jones is probably Brooks best opponent and will likely check his chin. Flipside Jones not unstoppable. His defensive skills are average at best relying more on putting up a guard and attempting to block shots than using his legs or head/upper body movement to avoid shots. Watched Ouali go around his guard and stun him a couple times.
 
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