Boxing 10/12 - 10/13

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +19.25 units
2 units: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit: 6-1 +4.70
1/2 unit: 56-23 +6.00
Dogs: 52-72 +6.90
LT's: 1-13 -0.35


10/11

Naito over Kameda -115...lay .30 to win .25 (winner)


10/12 Dogs

Reyes over Johnston +275...lay .20 to win .55 (winner)

Mercedes-Bernal Under 8.5 +190...lay .25 to win .50 (loser)

Medley over Hlatshwayo +160...lay .15 to win .25 (loser)


10/13

Kirilov-Navarro Over 11.5 -260...lay 1.3 to win .50 (winner)

Dogs

Navarro over Kirilov +160...lay .25 to win .40 (loser)

Julio Diaz over Juan Diaz +400...lay .10 to win .40 (loser)

Adjaho over Acosta +210...lay .10 to win .20 (loser)



Pending Parlays (all posted in previous threads)

Johnson over Wills -350 / Ibragimov over Holyfield -555...lay .45 to win .25 (winner)

Litzua over Lucero -1075 / Ibragimov -565...lay .65 to win .20 (winner)

Larsen over Hamdan -1000 / Ibragimov -565...lay .60 to win .20 (winner)


Done for the week

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Futures


10/19 Berrio over Bute +350...lay .15 to win .55

11/3 Calzaghe by 12 round decision +209...lay .30 to win .65

11/10 Haye over Mormeck +130...lay .40 to win .50

11/10 Mosley over Cotto +130...lay .30 to win .40

11/23 Mayorga over Vargas +160...lay .30 to win .50


gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Julio Diaz is as live a dog as they come. I think that number on Juan is inflated. Why in the hell can't Julio win this? I know you have been on some nice puppie winners lately, and I would like to see this one added to the list.

 

[punchmaster]

Julio Diaz is as live a dog as they come. I think that number on Juan is inflated. Why in the hell can't Julio win this? I know you have been on some nice puppie winners lately, and I would like to see this one added to the list.

I think Juan is a relentless pitbull that'v very hard to discourage who's been improving for a long time- defense, head movement, jab and even power. Who's training him now? He was working so well with Ronnie Shields so I think it's a negative that Shields is in Moscow to see Holy get hammered. Julio probably is the best boxer/puncher that Juan has faced though- a step up for sure.

 

[frank s.]

Were you at the fight Saturday? The scalpers were out of control. The Philipinos were paying $400 for ONE freakin seat! These clowns wanted $150 for a $200 seat. Forget-a-bout-it; we got it in anyway. If you plan on going sometime maybe we can catch one and compare notes.

 

[punchmaster]

Were you at the fight Saturday? The scalpers were out of control. The Philipinos were paying $400 for ONE freakin seat! These clowns wanted $150 for a $200 seat. Forget-a-bout-it; we got it in anyway. If you plan on going sometime maybe we can catch one and compare notes.

Nah Frank, it was one of the rare times I haven't gone to a big card. I was ringside for Montiel card Thursday and in Atlantic City the weekend before to watch my boy Pavlik do his thing. Off topic- Morales was dead on about Barrera- "He's just a mother--cker, it's that simple." Once again , when Barrera starts losing/getting hit , he sucker punches and he was obviously just there for a paycheck and to remain standing. Glad I didn't contribute..

 

[frank s.]

Yea, I agree. The whole affair seemed contrived and pretentious. It's truly amazing how the sanitary napkins that control the sport(HBO-the alphabets), etc., have the whole world bullshitted. Now just about everything is PPV. How we got Kelly and Jermain on the arm is a shock. Lets hope we can get a good read on the Diaz's; Calzaghe-Kessler and a few others. GLTA.

 

[Romi]

I like Juan Diaz in this one, but I don't like -400. I've been a fan of his since the Lavka Sim fight. I recall Ronnie shields telling him late in the fight (when the fight was in the bag) to put the pressure on and take this guys heart away. If this kid only had a ko punch. He looked a little vulnerable against Freitas but Freitas lacked the heart and resolve to fight 12 hard rds. I won't wager -400 on this one but if I see a decnt dec prop I just might take it. I like Juan Diaz by dec.

 

[frank s.]

I see it going the distance also. However, in spite of Juan's credentials, Julio is a tad taller and is NOT an opponent. I

 

[BOXLOCKS]

First of all, my play on Julio is very small, its strictly a value play as I think the odds I got were way too high. There's a reason why I'm not playing Julio larger than I did, I agree with punchy's assessment of Juan completely. I admit I had my doughts in the past when he was consistently matched with slow plodders with no handspeed. But the young man has looked great in his last few fights and he apears to have a very good chin, his work rate is unreal and his power has improved. I think team Diaz knew that the smaller Freitas was fragile and would crumble under the pressure, but it was still an impressive win. I'm not predicting a Julio win here, at even money I take Juan, but at +400 I take Julio who is much taller and can switch to southpaw at any time.


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Naito over Kameda -115...lay .30 to win .25


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a future parlay...


Gomez over McCall -460 / Dimitrenko over Hoffman -550...(-225)...lay .55 to win .25


gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

Adding a future parlay...


Gomez over McCall -460 / Dimitrenko over Hoffman -550...(-225)...lay .55 to win .25


gl bl

Dimitrenko seems like a solid pick- I guess Hoffman is very limited, Christ- Timor Suckabrimov had his way with him so Dimitrenko is a nice parlay boost.

I'm looking for Juan to really make a statement and have Julio in some serious trouble in the championship rounds. I did a parlay with Khan inside the distance, and under 11.5 on the Diaz's for about +300. If Juan stands back and boxes, Julio has a hell of a shot- so I'm thinking Juan going forward and throwing a gazillion punches.


What are you guys all thinking on Holy. My initial thoughts were Holy's 45 year old reflexes were not going to allow him to get out of the way of Sultan's hard, fast, straight lefts.. or other punches and I was seeing Holy on the seat of his pants in the first half of the fight. Saw some recent clips of Holy against Maddalone, Savarese and he looks great in spurts but I'm thinking those guys are very slow and very hittable and Sultan's southpaw stance isn't going to make it any easier.

No way in hell Holy outboxes Sultan over 12 rounds and gets a decision in Russia. 12 rounds seems like a lot for 45 year old legs. I think Sultan was very careful and non-risk taking against massive Briggs, as Jeff Mayweather has him boxing more but I think Sultan will be more willing to trade bombs with Holy and I'm looking for a stoppage. 2 of my more respected insiders like the decision but I'm sticking with the stoppage. I was Holy's biggest fan in his prime and it's hard for me to go against him and not try and ride this 5 time champion dream but I think Sultans pretty good and all good things must come to an end. If Holy proves me wrong,then mad respect.

 

[Zerwas]

I like Juan over Julio and backed him at -280.
Right now there isn't much value in this fight, I would be very tentative with the distance prop either. Juan could wear him down for a late round stoppage...

Ibragimov should decisively beat Evander. If he sets a high pace he will probably win by tko. If he choses to fight like he did against Briggs he will win a decisin.
holy's only chance seems to be a ko.
I already backed Ibragimov straight, but I will wait for the weigh in for a bigger bet.

As for Dimitrenko and Gomez, I would rather take the over prop in these fights.....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good Start

Good Start

Naito won by 12 round UD

 

[s_dooley24]

Under on Diaz fight has dropped like 50 cents

 

[Romi]

Nice start on the week box. I assumed your play on Julio was simply a value bet.

Does anyone know the circumstances of the ko of Jesus chavez by Julio diaz? I seemed to have forgotten that fight.

Still no new lines...wtf?

 

[muhr]

Nice start on the week box. I assumed your play on Julio was simply a value bet.

Does anyone know the circumstances of the ko of Jesus chavez by Julio diaz? I seemed to have forgotten that fight.

Still no new lines...wtf?

I don't remember many details of the fight other than Julio was winning and Jesus blew his knee out. I'm not sure if Julio even landed a punch when Jesus went down, if he did I don't think it was a meaningful one. Jesus didn't appear mentally prepared.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Kirilov-Navarro Over 11.5 -260...lay 1.3 to win .50

Mercedes-Bernal Under 8.5 +190...lay .25 to win .50

Reyes over Johnston +275...lay .20 to win .55

Medley over Hlatshwayo +160...lay .15 to win .25


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Navarro over Kirilov +160...lay .25 to win .40


gl bl