Boxing 11/5/08 Shobox

Ghost Kid

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New odds up

Daniel Judah -115
Jaffa Ballogou -125

David Estrada +240
Luis Carlos Abregu -320

Malachy Farrell +280
Travis Kauffman -400

Raul Pinzon +230
Saul Alvarez -310


also Amir Khan fight has an over-under of 7.5....

very intriguing.....
 

nj

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I don't have all those lines yet, but Khan over 7.5 +175 looks good. Not sure how other books have it. I already made a lottery play on Khan pts, so no more for me.

First line to jump out at me is David Estrada. I think he's been in so many hard fights that his punch resistance may be shot. The best thing going for Estrada here is his toughness, chin and experience, but if his chin is permanently dented, that changes the fight. I'm not sure he recovered from 11 rounds of Berto.

If it's still +240 by the time it comes to my book, I'll probably take it.
 

nj

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Wow compare these odds to Graham's, BIG differences. I'm going to read his write-ups, he may be on to something.
 

nj

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Thoughts about JM Lopez/Medina rounds?

Medina is a weak puncher, going the distance against mediocre opponents. He fought less than 2 months ago and went 11 rds. After getting badly KD'd by Rey Bautista, he did a good job of keeping away and clinching, and threw some punches back, but Bautista played the situation poorly. If Lopez hurts him like that it's over, Medina doesn't have enough to keep Lopez from opening up.

On the other side, when Medina hurt Bautista, he didn't follow up. He has no explosiveness, creativity or combinations, and was too predictable. He's flat-footed and slow. This is the only fight of his I've seen, but watch any round and it's clear Medina is fodder for Lopez.

This looks like another dazzling Lopez KO. I'd make the rounds 5.5 or 6.5. And I look forward to playing the under!
 

Ghost Kid

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I got 5.5 -230 NJ

JuanMa is going to f+ck this cat up....

I am even more confident on this after seeing Bautista crap himself in there two weeks ago against old ass Hemberto Ruiz

I will go MEDIUM on this....I would go LARGE if it was 6.5 or 7.5

still feeling the sting of Kirkland not hitting that under...
 
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nj

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That does hurt, I lost a bit on it too. Brian Vera is just insanely tough. I don't expect that level of chin and will from Medina.

Here are my early plays:

JML under 5.5, large: -220

- if Lopez watches the tape, he won't need a feel out process, and could stop him in 1. Meina is too slow, too flat-footed, and has minimal power, Lopez can steam roll him at any time. He doesn't have to worry about counter-punches, Medina is slow and doesn't use combinations, Lopez will see everything coming.

Ortiz under 9.5, medium/large: -200

- Ortiz's opponent has no power, fights tomato cans, and has been knocked out by Carlos Maussa. I was tempted to add more, but since I've never seen Jeffrey Resto, I stopped.

I think it will hit though, if we can get some solid info on Resto, I'll probably add to it.

David Estrada, small: +296

- mostly a Fightwriter play. Thanks for the weekly postings Graham. It sounds like a raw, undefeated South American puncher taking on a durable, less talented veteran. As I said in this thread the danger is that Estrada's chin has been permanently ruined, but it's worth a shot at +300. If he makes Abregu work and takes him into deep waters, who knows how he'll respond.
 

Ghost Kid

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I think I will stay away from tonight....40 year old Ballogou vs. Daniel Judah.....yuck....too many crappy factors

normally I would go with the younger guy but Daniel Judah just plain sucks

I may play the over 9.5...not sure yet

NJ here is my early take on Friday and Saturday:

I've seen Resto a few times. He was a big prospect out of New York until he quit against Maussa. He gets tagged A LOT. He says he is reinvigorated and well=prepared for Ortiz come Saturday. Here is an article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=3733086

I don't believe him and I think he is in for an ass-beating. IMO, Ortiz is going to shred through this cat easy. 5 or 6 rounds.

Friday I like Kaufman (obviously) and, honestly, I don't like the other fight. I know the odds are tempting because the Argentinian puncher seems to have a bit of a built up record.

But I saw the Karass fight, and Estrada very well may be SHOT. He's been knocked around really badly the last couple years.

The over-under for that one is 8.5 and I think that is set about right. Estrada is a tough out, even at this point.

At the end of the day, I think Estrada loses.
 

Romi

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I have quite a bit of dough on Abregu@-260...a big gamble on an unproven talent but what is proven is that this kid can crack and that estrada's punch resistance isn't what it used to be. He's been in a few wars and he was completely dominated by Berto. The very tough Karass isn't in Bertos class and he dropped Estrada hard. Why would they take on such a big puncher after such a tough fight and a ko loss at that??? I think Estrada gets starched at some point. I also wagered the under 8 1/2 @ even odds.

I wagered 5 bucks on the over tonight judah/ballogoue. The fight itself is too close to call IMO. Evan is on Judah...Graham is on Ballogue slightly. I don't see any value on either guy.
 

Zerwas

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I'm contemplating a bet on Judah...but the over is probably the safer bet here...

I think Estrada might well be shot....I might try the under here...

Victor Ortiz will probably stop Resto....

Nothing really mind-blowing...
 

nj

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Thanks for the insight about Resto. I'll keep my under play.

Judah over is a smart play definitely, the Estrada under is worth a small shot too.

This week, it's all peanuts compared to Oscar.
 
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Ghost Kid

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I took the over 9.5 tonight....SMALL play
gotta have a little action on a Thursday night !

Daniel Judah-Yusef Mack was unwatchable and this will probably be the same
Judah can't crack, so unless the old man gets a KO
I expect it to go to the cards

here is a link for anyone interested

the stream is free and starts in a few minutes

Nagy Aguilara, that heavyweight we won on a few months back, is on the undercard
 

Ghost Kid

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Got a little extra cash from the Daniel Judah over last night, so I i will make a few Friday plays:

Today I am taking:

MEDIUM - Tajbert (the German in Germany at even odds)

MEDIUM- McCloskey (I think Graham is right...the kid has a shot here, even in Lynes back yard)

if one of these hits great....two and I will be ecstatic

then tonight:

LARGE - Kaufman/Abregu parlay

MEDIUM - Abregu ITD

MEDIUM - Abregu-Estrada under 8.5

I am staying away from the Kaufman over-under. I think the fat boy is going down, but I will stick with Kaufman straight.

I. like Romi, am banking on Estrada being shot. I could be wrong on this, but he has been in a lot of wars and it's worth a stab.

Good luck guys. The big one tomorrow.

:toast:
 

Ghost Kid

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Gulyakevich wins a UD in Germany

1 for 1 on the day

I'll take it...a winning day as long as Kaufman pulls through against fatboy tonight
 

Ghost Kid

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So I know the focus is on tomorrow night

but I am pretty large on this Travis Kaufman cat

starts in 15 minutes....

let's hope Mr. 281 pnds falls over from exhaustion after 1 rnd
 

Ghost Kid

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"intestinal disorder"? is that what they call fat and out of shape these days?

sounds like the excuses are flying already
 

Ghost Kid

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Out of shape and out-classed !

WOOOOO !!!!!!!!!!!!

the under hits also !!!!!!!!!

double woo!

:00hour :00hour
 

Ghost Kid

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Props goes to A2C for bringing the weights for this fight to the boards attention...

Thank you brother...Hope you loaded up on that under.....

:mj06: :toast:
 

Ghost Kid

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Love it.....

Estrada in quicksand....just like i thought...shot fighter...
only a lucky punch will save him now...
 
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