Boxing 11/9 - 11/13

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +20.90 units
2 units: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit: 7-1 +5.70
1/2 unit: 57-25 +5.65
Dogs: 57-77 +8.05
LT's: 1-15 -0.50



11/9

Froch-Reid Over 8.5 -120...lay .30 to win .25 (loser)


11/10

Ortiz over Maussa -240...lay 2.4 to win 1 unit (winner)

Dogs

Haye over Mormeck +130...lay .40 to win .50 (winner)

Mosley over Cotto +130...lay .30 to win .40 (loser)

Cotto-Mosley won't go distance +175...lay .15 to win .25 (loser)


Parlays

Casamayor -270 (winner) / Mosley +20.5 points -325 (winner) / Mayweather -235...(+155)...lay .30 to win .45

Mosley +20.5 points -350 (winner) / Margarito -1200 (winner) / Mayweather -235...(even)...lay .30 to win .30


Lottery Ticket

11/9 Reid over Froch +800...lay .10 to win .80 (loser)


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Futures


11/23 Mayorga over Vargas +160...lay .30 to win .50

11/23 Haymer over Oakey +250...lay .15 to win .40

12/1 Green over Tarver +300...lay .30 to win .90

12/8 Earl over Kahn +650...lay .10 to win .65



Pending Parlay

Gomez over McCall -460 (winner) / Dimitrenko over Hoffman -550...(-225)...lay .55 to win .25


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a big play...


Ortiz over Maussa -240...lay 2.4 to win 1 unit


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a small dog...


Cotto-Mosley won't go distance +175...lay .15 to win .25


gl bl

 

[tonymontana]

Adding a big play...


Ortiz over Maussa -240...lay 2.4 to win 1 unit


gl bl

And tonymontana is right behind you, not as big as you but when you go big its good enough for me for a medium play.
Maussa can bang though, normally i dont like laying chalk against big puncher especially when my fighter is just 20.


I also took some of Golden Johnson at plus 800.
I like Mag and he is a top dog but he can be outboxed and he is hittable.
Johnsons resume looks pretty impressive and he is younger than i thought too. This fight will be a good one.
Very nice compilation of fights.

Cotto Mosley is a tough one and since Kessler didnt deliver i am little bit worried that i bet with my heart again. I like Cotto. The way he fights. Who he fights. The way he handles himself outside the ring. But i just watched recent sparring sessions from both fighters and Mosley was fighting huge guys and looked sharp and ready.

Mosley also said the one thing he doesnt want is a boxing match, he wants a fight to remember. I like to hear that.
I am invested on Cotto straight at 120 and Cotto inside at plus 500 and Cotto in the round 6 - 12 at plus 800.
I now took some Mosley at plus 800 because those odds are just crazy.
Though anybody goes down i am fine, Cotto wins dec i am fine, Cotto wins inside after round five it is raining money, Mosley wins a dec I am ****ed.
Good luck

 

[BOXLOCKS]

gl Tony

Ortiz is the real deal...Maussa is horrible and has been off for a year. The fight is only 10 rounds so I don't worry about Ortiz fading late, which is how Maussa wins his fights. I don't expect Ortiz to trade with this guy or go for an early KO, his team knows thats not a good idea in this fight. The promotion heavily favors Ortiz, so I expect him to fight smart and outbox the limited brawler from his southpaw stance on the way to a lopsided decision.

An associate of mine informed me that Ortiz opened -175...which really pisses me off as I always try to get the openers, got home from work late tonight and missed this one. Oh well, I still think -240 is way too low

Btw, my associate (who is the best boxing guy I know) is the one who moved the line form -175 to -240. We definitly want him on our side. Last week he sent me an e-mail about the Honorio-Ghost Under 10.5 +210 and made me some extra cash


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a small dog...


Cotto-Mosley won't go distance +175...lay .15 to win .25


gl bl

These boys will be using 8 ounce gloves...very nice

Good for Mosley as far as handspeed, also good for the fight not going the distance

gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

How good is Mike Oliver tonight? a speedy short(to Seeger) southpaw. I was a little disappointed in Seeger's showing against Ponce who was practically clubbing a baby seal but it took him 8 rounds and many fighters have fallen much faster against Ponce. Seeger's only other loss is to a tough banger( he revenged) also quite unlike Oliver. Oliver did struggle with Stark who turned out not to be much. A tall orthodox fighter with a big right hand is tougher for Oliver type to work combos on just like Stevie Johnson against Rolando Reyes but Oliver isn't shot like Johnson. Location favors Oliver. Plus 300 is starting to offer some value so I'll make a small play and perhaps cover with an over parlay. +170 is a nice number for a technically skilled monster like Soto for 11/17. Late rounds will not be kind to Guzman.

 

[punchmaster]

These boys will be using 8 ounce gloves...very nice

Good for Mosley as far as handspeed, also good for the fight not going the distance

gl bl

Wow... that bet is caputuring my interest because of the intensity around the bout..... I thougt Cotto by decision at 2 to 1 (Bodog) had some value since Mosley is iron chinned, in peak condition and can move. Cotto's pride is the size of Puerto Rico and he was much more hurt at 140 than 147. He looks tough to put away. Tougher than Collazo who wasn't put away. I'm not convinced that Mosley's one punch power power is more devastating than Judah's left hand that caught Cotto very clean. I think there's some truth to Shane looking sharp and fast due to being off the weights and focus onto the speed. Tough fight to call but I'm going with the youth and will of Cotto. Vargas was suprisingly pushing Mosley back in the first fight and he looked slow as shite in the first fight also.

 

[Romi]

-Can anybody explain why Casa is only -220 v an ordinary Santa Cruz? SC has a very questionable chin, has been stopped twice, and was in life and death w/Edner Cherry. I'm not so sure he even belongs in the ring w/Casa. I really liked those odds and took it for max. Casa has shown a few signs of aging but I think he's still world class and much better than SC. Hope to get enough to recover from my blunder of wagering on Cod the other night.

-I like Mosleys chances. The fact he is 36 has me concerned so I'm not willing to part with much dough on it. I may make a small wager on Mos @+145. I'm looking forward to the fight and don't want to be stressed on a high wager. If Cotto strts slow, I can see Mosley getting to him. This could be a good one!

-I like Haye and possibly early but not so sure he'll handle the pressure if Mormeck doesn't cave. Box got in on some nice odds early on but now it's just an even money fight...I'm debating this one.

 

[frank s.]

Romi: Joel Casa is in another class than JASC. What's up with that? Dunno. I bet Casamajor. Also I see Mosley firing away at Cotto early, trying to put his 6 in the bank and boxing to a decision. But Mosley ALSO says he ain't coming to play patty-cake and is looking for a ko. I think he is full of shit. Whatever, he will rough Cotto up , but it ain't over till it's over. Mosley has been is with the best but not lately. Vargas-Collazo, and whomever else. Cotto AIN'T Collazo. Also, Cotto is on weight early, a good sign. Cotto by decision.
Punchy; we saw Soto at the Orleans. He has gotten nuch better. Guzman is in for a bumpy ride. Soto is a VERY live dog.

 

[gardenweasel]

Romi: Joel Casa is in another class than JASC. What's up with that? Dunno. I bet Casamajor. Also I see Mosley firing away at Cotto early, trying to put his 6 in the bank and boxing to a decision. But Mosley ALSO says he ain't coming to play patty-cake and is looking for a ko. I think he is full of shit. Whatever, he will rough Cotto up , but it ain't over till it's over. Mosley has been is with the best but not lately. Vargas-Collazo, and whomever else. Cotto AIN'T Collazo. Also, Cotto is on weight early, a good sign. Cotto by decision.
Punchy; we saw Soto at the Orleans. He has gotten nuch better. Guzman is in for a bumpy ride. Soto is a VERY live dog.

i haven`t been this excited about a contest(soto/guzman)since the old ginger/maryann arguments(tony...this is an obscure american "gilligan`s island" reference...don`t worry,it wasn`t that funny)......

the endorphins are flowing big time...

the problem is,my head says that the slicker guzman will be too sharp for the vicious punching soto.....
but,my heart wants very badly to take the + money with soto....

would love to see soto win and get in there with pac or marquez....

 

[tonymontana]

I just dumped a big one on Casamayor. I cant stand him but Santa Cruz brings nothing to the table.
If Casamayor is not getting old in this fight he stops him.

I dont wanna be a pain in the ass but i believe in the main event the KO options have great value.
Cotto 1 to 12 for +1600 looks damn good to me.
Cotto will not settle for a dec win even if he is ahead he really wants to get people out of there.
In his last 10 fights he stopped 9 and knocked the one who made it to the bell down. These were all quality fighters worldchamps and undefeated fighter. Not absolute elite but not one bum.
All KOs came round 5 or later.

Mosley via tko at 700 is a must play especially if you have Cotto straight up like me.

My man likes Cotto and Haye. He believes Mosley doesnt have the power to really hurt Cotto at 147.
He also liked the fact that Vargas was able to push Mosley back in the first fight.

Good luck to anybody and @weasel thanks for the cultural input

 

[Romi]

I just dumped a big one on Casamayor. I cant stand him but Santa Cruz brings nothing to the table.
If Casamayor is not getting old in this fight he stops him.

I dont wanna be a pain in the ass but i believe in the main event the KO options have great value.
Cotto 1 to 12 for +1600 looks damn good to me.
Cotto will not settle for a dec win even if he is ahead he really wants to get people out of there.
In his last 10 fights he stopped 9 and knocked the one who made it to the bell down. These were all quality fighters worldchamps and undefeated fighter. Not absolute elite but not one bum.
All KOs came round 5 or later.

Mosley via tko at 700 is a must play especially if you have Cotto straight up like me.

My man likes Cotto and Haye. He believes Mosley doesnt have the power to really hurt Cotto at 147.
He also liked the fact that Vargas was able to push Mosley back in the first fight.

Good luck to anybody and @weasel thanks for the cultural input

I'm going to assume that's a wad of dough and not a turd. I just doubled my wager @-225. I agree. As long as Casa doesn't get old over night, he should win this one comfortably. This is my bet of the week and I may just leave the wagers alone with this one. I have a very nice streak going and would like to keep it alive. Good luck Tony!

 

[conanthecribber]

Hi Guys

Hi Guys

Hi Guys,

it's conan here from boxingranks and boxrec. Finally joined up. I'm getting a bit tired of boxrec. This site seems pretty cool.

Lots on this weekend. I posted on boxerc that I like Froch, but the price has gone way down, no value now.

I prefer Mosely to Cotto, but it's a close fight. You can see it going either way. I'd love to back "Mosely leading on cards after 6", but I dont know if he can close it. I threw a small bet on him and a few coins on the draw, I can imagine an even fight.

Mormeck vs Haye is hard. I was originally thinking Mormeck small, but now I'm drifting to Haye. Whatever I decide it will be a small bet. Moremeck is one tough MoFo.

Thanks for the Casa tips. That looks good.

conan

 

[tonymontana]

How good is Mike Oliver tonight? a speedy short(to Seeger) southpaw. I was a little disappointed in Seeger's showing against Ponce who was practically clubbing a baby seal but it took him 8 rounds and many fighters have fallen much faster against Ponce. Seeger's only other loss is to a tough banger( he revenged) also quite unlike Oliver. Oliver did struggle with Stark who turned out not to be much. A tall orthodox fighter with a big right hand is tougher for Oliver type to work combos on just like Stevie Johnson against Rolando Reyes but Oliver isn't shot like Johnson. Location favors Oliver. Plus 300 is starting to offer some value so I'll make a small play and perhaps cover with an over parlay. +170 is a nice number for a technically skilled monster like Soto for 11/17. Late rounds will not be kind to Guzman.

Took a little of Seeger too. Pretty close on the scorecards but not enough to win it. I should have taken your advice on the over also but i didnt.
Good luck for this weekend

 

[conanthecribber]

picks

picks

Ended up with quite a few bets.

Froch/Reid over 9, med
Casa win, med
Haye win, small
Mosely via KO, rounds 2 thru 9, various long shot bets at 67.0 each (hope that play comes off)
Cotto via KO, rounds 10 thru 12, various long shot bets at 34.0 or 41.0 (silly odds if you look at his record)

And a small defensive hedge parlay, in case it all goes pear shaped (the only justification for a parlay that I can think of)

Froch/Reid under, Santa Cruz, Mormeck, Cotto/Mosely over 10.

Go Mosley. KO 7 or Cotto KO11. That would make a very good year absolutely stellar.

conan

 

[punchmaster]

Took a little of Seeger too. Pretty close on the scorecards but not enough to win it. I should have taken your advice on the over also but i didnt.
Good luck for this weekend

Thanks- yea I took just enough on the over to break even while getting a shot at the dog.


I see some cappers grabbed the the Reid over. I know Reid has had a chin but what's he got left in terms of desire after stating this is his last fight. Froch should start catching him no later than the 6th. I'll take Froch inside at -167. Should I take the over and hope to hit both with a 9-12 round KO? Nah- I'm concerned about Reid's ambition.

I want to jump on Rosales, but that swarming pain in the ass Lorenzo has me hesitating. I watched his most recent fight against Cardenas and he still had pretty good energy. Love the over. Probably take a crack with Rosales at least in a parlay. Watched him dominate Licona who had little to offer though.

 

[gardenweasel]

Hi Guys,

it's conan here from boxingranks and boxrec. Finally joined up. I'm getting a bit tired of boxrec. This site seems pretty cool.

Lots on this weekend. I posted on boxerc that I like Froch, but the price has gone way down, no value now.

I prefer Mosely to Cotto, but it's a close fight. You can see it going either way. I'd love to back "Mosely leading on cards after 6", but I dont know if he can close it. I threw a small bet on him and a few coins on the draw, I can imagine an even fight.

Mormeck vs Haye is hard. I was originally thinking Mormeck small, but now I'm drifting to Haye. Whatever I decide it will be a small bet. Moremeck is one tough MoFo.

Thanks for the Casa tips. That looks good.

conan

conan...it`s been a while,but,this is "JRM" from the old boxingranks site......you ever hear from rick,marks,dr z. or any of the others?.....

how you doin`?...

conan`s a solid european capper....i think you`re german aren`t you?....

whatever....conan`s a solid boxing guy....

welcome brother...

 

[Chill]

Not much analysis here but here is who i like in a couple of upcoming fights

Soto over Guzman(barrios put in some good work against guzman and I think Soto is better)

Rosales over Lorenzo

Casamayor easy over Santa Cruz

Mosley close over Cotto(This one is too close to throw a lot on it but I think Mosley out boxes Cotto and I dont think Cotto can hurt Mosley.)

one more here, still a month away though but i like it.
DEC 8 - Lacy easy over manfredo(The fighters from contender season 2 are all pussies, especially Mora who beat 'fredo twice. Gomez even beat him and he is currently a Welterweight. Lacy has been off a while but no way he loses to this TV hyped "contender".)