This is a very very tough fight to pick.
On the Vasquez side you have a kid who has looked great lately, but a closer look reveals he has really been put in easy the last few. Totally shot old opponents.
Vasquez is supposedly the bigger guy, but he doesn't seem to have such a physical advantage in the weigh-in photos.
The fight being in Puerto Rico is obviously a huge advantage. The crowd will be raging, especially with a famous son fighting for a world title against Sonsona, who himself beat a Puerto Rican (Carita Lopez) for his own belt last year.
I also can't help but think that the sons of former greats are always a bit over-rated.
But then on the other side of the ring you have Sonsona, who is moving up two weight classes and coming off an unimpressive draw. Sonsona has much more amateur experience and has fought tougher competition, but rumors abound about his lack of focus in training camp.
Such a tough fight to bet with all these factors on the table. I was a bit surprised Vasquez opened at -260 (quite a solid favorite). I think Sonsona at +180 or +200 is a solid play. Pick em fight to me.
But, of course, now that the odds are almost even, Vasquez at -140 is attractive to players as well. The Puerto Rican home court is a HUGE factor.
Me myself. I am looking forward to the PPV, but I will probably just play Sonsona SMALL at the plus odds.
I won't be betting the Mayol fight, as that little fuker is guaranteed to lead with his head and create some controversy. If there was a prop bet that Mayol would be warned, deducted a point, and/or DQ'ed I would bet a million dollars on it.
:142smilie
