Boxing 2/3 - 2/5

[Habecki]

I think the Kelly Pavlik fight is brought up the most when trying to give an assessment on Rubio's ceiling, but to me it was when he fought Rigoberto Alvarez. Then fighting at middleweight, it was a back and forth action kind of fight that had me very nervous until Rubio stopped him in the 9th. Rubio was being hit and backed up by Alvarez, who is slow, flat footed, and simply not that good. Rubio is a good fighter, but he can be backed up by a physically stronger fighter, which I believe JCC Jr. to be.

Didn't see the fight but that was his first bout after the Pavlik beating so perhaps he was still traumatized by the Pavlik fight. lol I thought he did a pretty good job against the heavy handed Lemieux. He let Lemieux come after him but in a measured fashion and did enough to show he meant business. Also took a few decent shots quite well.

I'm gaining confidence by the day that Rubio can finally expose Chavez's lack of defense. Whatever the case 3.5-1 seems awfully high, will wait to see the weigh in this afternoon. Guessing we could see some bs with Chavez coming in over the limit.


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Tonight Chilemba seems to be getting a lot of respect. Granted he looks pretty good but the line seems a little much. Bottom line this is a step up in competition, in his first high profile fight which he took on 3 weeks notice. People worry about Miranda's chin but lets not forget Chilemba against Vlasov was floored twice in the 8th on right hands. Got to be brave to be backing Chilemba at -350+, like Miranda and the under 8.5.

 

[december26]

Didn't see the fight but that was his first bout after the Pavlik beating so perhaps he was still traumatized by the Pavlik fight. lol I thought he did a pretty good job against the heavy handed Lemieux. He let Lemieux come after him but in a measured fashion and did enough to show he meant business. Also took a few decent shots quite well.

I'm gaining confidence by the day that Rubio can finally expose Chavez's lack of defense. Whatever the case 3.5-1 seems awfully high, will wait to see the weigh in this afternoon. Guessing we could see some bs with Chavez coming in over the limit.


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Tonight Chilemba seems to be getting a lot of respect. Granted he looks pretty good but the line seems a little much. Bottom line this is a step up in competition, in his first high profile fight which he took on 3 weeks notice. People worry about Miranda's chin but lets not forget Chilemba against Vlasov was floored twice in the 8th on right hands. Got to be brave to be backing Chilemba at -350+, like Miranda and the under 8.5.

It was his second fight after the Pavlik fight, and I doubt being traumatized had anything to do w/ it as he came back fine after being sparked in 30 secs by Kofi Jantuah, as well as losing back to back decisions to Kassim Ouma and Zaurbek Baysangurov after dropping each of them in the first round before turning it around in his next fight.

I had no wager or prediction on the Rubio/Lemieux fight, but he def. fought smart and w/ a great gameplan. Rubio is def. a smart and experienced fighter. However, I cannot compare David Lemieux to JCC Jr. JCC Jr. is a massive fighter compared to Lemieux, who in my opinion is not a true middleweight, but better suited for 154. He looks a bit fleshy at 160. Rubio had size and reach advantages over Lemieux. Lemieux has a 64 inch reach compared to JCC Jr's 73 inch reach, night and day. JCC Jr. also has a far better engine than Lemieux, who I believe gassed as early as the 4th against Rubio. I think that Rubio will not be able to, and also will choose not to march forward as he did against smaller fighters in Matt Vanda and David Lemieux.

 

[Habecki]

It was his second fight after the Pavlik fight, and I doubt being traumatized had anything to do w/ it as he came back fine after being sparked in 30 secs by Kofi Jantuah, as well as losing back to back decisions to Kassim Ouma and Zaurbek Baysangurov after dropping each of them in the first round before turning it around in his next fight.

Meant first real fight back, the opponent he ko'd in the first round between those two fights was a tomato can. And its a little different getting shocked in the first round on one punch and getting a sustained beating for 8-9 rounds.

Anywho I doubt Rubio will be consistently on the front foot banging but I really don't think we'll see a meek performance like he had against Pavlik. Chavez does have a good reach but is not a boxer who dances on the outside. He excels on the inside banging to the body so that physical advantage he has is negated by his own skill set. I do worry about Rubio holding up to a sustained body attack but fact is Chavez hasn't been dropping guys left and right.

Bottom line is this is a legit step up for Chavez Jr against a guy who has some legit pop, with accuracy. These fighters who have been coddled from day one are always overconfident and don't understand what top level is. Chavez's ability to take flush punches will be put to test for the first time. He seems tough enough to take some punishment but if a cut or swelling emerges then that's a good enough advantage created for Rubio.

I mean lets face facts, Zbik landed a million punches on Chavez. If he had any power who's to say what would've happened. Fight previous against Lyell (another guy with no power) he was unconvincing and was actually booed on his home turf for failing to impress. Last fight again against a boxer in Manfredo who was talking retirement beforehand.

I do not trust guys who have been babied this badly. Its either they have no toughness or they are simply not up to par skill wise. In this case its clear he does not have the skills to pay the bills at top level. Now time will tell if Rubio has enough to expose him. But for 3.5-1 its a joke.

 

[fastfrank]

Papa Chavez is very carefully guiding his sons progression. Believe it, each match up is extremely thought out by his dad. Only if junior cuts the apron strings and REALLY takes on a guy we cannot believe he is willing to fight will we ever know. Actually, we may never know. I agree with dec26. Junior will come in almost lt. heavyweight. He is a big boy and just getting better AND tougher. I too am no fan of coddled guys, but he is being groomed and protected, which is why he wins this fight.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Ovill does seem to pack a punch but he is awfully raw. Seems like a bit of steep price on McKenzie unless I'm reading Dodson badly and he simply will be overwhelmed.

Agree with the under, should be some good action and Dodson has suffered cuts in his recent bouts.

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Got very nice lines at my bets early this week:
Not the distance
Under 9.5
MCKenzie inside

but maybe add even more under 7.5 is priced at +170 :0074 at some books... hmmm actually dont want to get to big exposure here as if it dont ends early this can even go late... but my buddy had a feeling I strongly trust. :toast:

 

[fastfrank]

Boxing parlay

Boxing parlay

Yea, all chalk, but I really like all 3.
McKenzie-200/Chilemba-365/Chavez Jr.-360. Pays around 7-5. McKenzie I'll run with as per lunch. Miranda will tire and break down as he is NOT the monster he once was. And Junior because he presently leads a charmed life.

 

[fastfrank]

Williams/Barthelemy

Williams/Barthelemy

Play: Williams-115. Williams super fast mitts. Fight is 8 rounder and guy that lands more wins.

 

[Habecki]

Shocking parlay FastFrank! :facepalm: :mj07:

Bets;

I think Ovill is a poor man's Miranda. Packs a decent punch but his punches are sloppy/wild and doesn't carry his power to later rounds that well. I think Dodson can outbox him if he can get it past the 5th/6th round. Took Dodson at +190.


Took a chance with Miranda at +260 (now see higher price available) and the U8.5 rounds at just over even money. I think Miranda is very live in this spot. He is more experienced, enjoys the spotlight, and packs a big right hand which could expose Chilemba. I don't think Miranda is the right opponent for Chilemba to deal with right now. He looks pretty solid but I'm not convinced this guy is going to the top level. As mentioned before was dropped twice in his last fight in the US so also chin question marks here. Noticed when Chilemba does get hit he likes to return fire pronto so I expect some fireworks at times during this one. Both have power (Chilemba seems to have fought guys that are durable so think he packs more of a punch then his record suggests) and questionable chins so the Under looks good as well.


Marco Antonio Rubio +350 over Chavez Jr. I honestly think the line is outrageous. Despite everyone seemingly understanding Chavez Jr. is overhyped/overrated everybody still seems to think he'll win this one. I guess its the feeling he's so protected he can't loose. That Chavez Jr's team must have scouted Rubio and known he is a bum or that the judges/ref bias will be enough in the end. I still believe the line is a joke even with the built in advantages for Chavez Jr. Rubio is the first guy Chavez Jr. has fought that has any resemblence of power so we'll see how this goes. Contemplating the under 9.5 at the moment. If Rubio doesn't bring to the table what I think he can he will probably falter before the 10th round. Plus on the flipside I think Rubio can stop Chavez himself.

For now Rubio +350 and probably at least a small wager on U9.5 +125.

 

[fastfrank]

Wow, are we ever on opposite sides of the fence!

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Plays

Plays

Donair and Quigg:

Champ inside
not the distance
under

quite decent plays especially as I got some value odds on -not the distance-.
:toast:

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Play: Williams-115. Williams super fast mitts. Fight is 8 rounder and guy that lands more wins.

I am on it too, small bet for me, but looks like value. WOuld love to get draw odds on this.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

btw. Dodson pts /TD is at +550for those of you that want a small hedge :0008

Anyway will be a very intersting and hopefully very profitable weekend.

gl to those that be the right side

->>> McK vs D. just added on draw, as if it goes down the road it will be close. :0008

 

[december26]

Plays

Plays

Got the same parlay going as frank, but got McKenzie at -185. Chavez jr weighed in at 159.5 after stripping down naked while Rubio weighed in at 159 first try.

 

[fastfrank]

Got the same parlay going as frank, but got McKenzie at -185. Chavez jr weighed in at 159.5 after stripping down naked while Rubio weighed in at 159 first try.

Ha-Ha!! At least he was 1/2 lb. under! That boy and his weight issues. Also, FYI, local casinos in Vegas/Henderson that are affiliated with Texas Station, location of tonites ESPN fights, HAVE NO LINES POSTED! Hate to sound vulgar, but they are no more than sanitary napkins. They host a nationally televised fight and you can't bet it. With them at least. As the Brits say "wee cunts".

 

[fastfrank]

5Dimes does it again...

5Dimes does it again...

They have 12 round props listed for a 10 round fight. I am not calling. They do this constantly.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

They have 12 round props listed for a 10 round fight. I am not calling. They do this constantly.

Which fight?

 

[fastfrank]

Ovill McKenzie v Tony Dodson:

I really like McK to win inside: :0008

Not the distance
Under 9.5
MCKenzie inside

Thanks to my buddy Zerwas who did a lot of research on this!:0074

Cheers
LotL

THANK YOU MY BROTHER FOR THIS ONE!!!!!

 

[fastfrank]

Which fight?

Miranda

 

[LordoftheLunch]

THANK YOU MY BROTHER FOR THIS ONE!!!!!

You are very welcome!

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Round 3 KO, even better then I thought and big thanks to Zerwass who made me play:

Ko round 1
Ko round 2
Ko round 3
Ko round 4

and the under 7.5 in addition to the other 3 bets :0074 :0074 :0074 :0074

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Miranda

They just changed it =)