Boxing 3/21 - 3/22

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +1.15 units
1 unit play: 0-1 -1.30
1/2 units: 12-7....+1.40
Dogs: 8-15....+1.65
LT's: 0-7....-0.60



3/21 Dog

Lee-Vera Under 5.5 at +125...lay .30 to win .40 (loser)

3/22

Andrade over Stiegletz -350...Buyout at +370

Andrade-Stiegletz Under 9.5 -120...lay .60 to win .50 (winner)


Parlays

Rees-Kotelnik Over 11.5 -380 (winner) / Spinks over Phillips -550 / Margarito over Cintron -310...(even)...Lay .30 to win .30

Andrade over Stiegletz -350 (winner) / Cotto over Gomez -800...(-220)...Lay 1.0 to win .45

Cotto over Gomez -1050 / Rees-Kotelnik Over 11.5 -380 (winner)....(-260)....Lay 1.05 to win .40

Diaz-Morano Over 9.5 -260 / Rees-Kotelnik Over 11.5 -380....(-130)...Lay .40 to win .30 (winner)


gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

Seems like a lack of lines this week. Wasn't Ward supposed to fight R Williams tonight? What about Campas-Macklin?


Anyone seen much of Stieglitz? Of course Berrio iced him in the rematch in 3, but I was not blown away seeing him in some undercard when journeyman Marlon Hayes grabbed a few rounds of him in an 8 rounder. If Andrade wears down and hammers Yusaf Mack after the punishment he took, Stieglitz is a dead man walking. The under 9.5 was +115 for all of 10 minutes and popped up when Romi and I were chatting a bit. We may have driven it down. With Andrade's mindframe, I'm having a hard time seeing it go past 7. I still think -120 or so is decent.

One of the best value props last weekend was either fighter gets knocked down or out, as high as +190 on the Paq fight. I think it's a good prop at even money in Casa fight with Katsidis brawling style, he should catch a slower Casa or run into a perfect Casa counter..


No movement on Lee-Vera over under 5.5. Vera is very raw. A tall southie with a good right hook like Lee should hammer him.

l

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Anyone seen much of Stieglitz? Of course Berrio iced him in the rematch in 3, but I was not blown away seeing him in some undercard when journeyman Marlon Hayes grabbed a few rounds of him in an 8 rounder. If Andrade wears down and hammers Yusaf Mack after the punishment he took, Stieglitz is a dead man walking. The under 9.5 was +115 for all of 10 minutes and popped up when Romi and I were chatting a bit. We may have driven it down. With Andrade's mindframe, I'm having a hard time seeing it go past 7. I still think -120 or so is decent.


No movement on Lee-Vera over under 5.5. Vera is very raw. A tall southie with a good right hook like Lee should hammer him.

Thanks for posting

I've been debating that Lee Under at +125 since the line surfaced and its still there staring me in the face. My thinking is that if Lee hasn't stopped him by the middle of the sixth, he probably won't stop him at all. Lee is a front runner, he tries to get you out of there asap. Codrington hurt Vera in a hurry, and Lee knows it...

I'm on the Lee Under 5.5 at +125...lay .30 to win .40


gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

Thanks for posting


I'm on the Lee Under 5.5 at +125...lay .30 to win .40

gl bl

Yea, I'll creep in on that with you, so far I've got about .03 on it. :shrug: I'll have to grow a pair +125 isn't bad

 

[Spreadking]

hey guys

thanks for the overviews box

I agree the best play on the Lee-Vara fight is the under. There is a good chance Lee will bust up Vera. Vera has only been beat by Codrington though...who maybe is an under-rated puncher with his dropping Bika. I'm not really feeling the total either way. Let me throw something crazy out there, if your not crazy about the under and want to play the fight anyway..... a minimum on Vera +1000 to win.

I like Andrade to win Saturday, and probably with a kayo. Even if Stiegltiz can keep Andrade outside, Andrade's punch output should win him those rounds.

Casamayor/Katsidis....I am up in the air...though I feel the best lines are with Casamayor to win straight up....and to win by deicison. Katsidis is the type of fighter a younger Casamayor would eat up. When a fight is tough to call......put a lil on the draw. Casamayor always is appreciated by the judges.

I made this parlay +170
and I actually feel good about it
Rees/Kotelnik over (thanks box)
Spinks/Phillips over
Ouma win
Margarito win
Cotto win

good luck everybody

 

[gardenweasel]

andrade`s actually a couple/3 inches taller than stieglitz,if boxrec can be believed....

i`m in on the under....unfortunately,i never met an under i didn`t like....

 

[Hellephant]

:0corn
Lee vs Vera, under 5,5 at +125. I follow the rest on this one. Lee is rather accurate and he will have lots of opportunities against Vera.

Rees via dec over Kotelnik at +200. I think the little kid can get inside and flurry home a home ground decision.

 

[gardenweasel]

:0corn

Rees via dec over Kotelnik at +200. I think the little kid can get inside and flurry home a home ground decision.

nice observation...might be worth a look...

 

[frank s.]

I parlayed Lee/Andrade. It falls within my lay no more than 3-1 rule. Just barely with Lee@-1100 and Andrade-440. Not my usual style but I'm going with what I feel is the class in each bout. Also considering the Casa-Kat prop that somebody tastes the canvas. Joel Casa I think is too shop worn to stand the onslaught he is about to face. Remember Casa has a "dirty" bag of tricks to draw from also. He will stop at nothing to gain an edge. Maybe a points deduction may be in order. I have followed Casa from day one; he is very proud and feels he is the best in the world. Seriously. This could spell trouble. If Kat the wrecking ball can find his target, Joel is toast.

 

[tonymontana]

The under on andrade is an okay play but Andrade straight at over - 400 is not smart.
Dont get me wrong Andrade is a quality fighter and a great dog play because of his power and stamina but he is also very beatable.
I played Andrade against mack and i did like what i saw there. Andrade got lucky and Mack fought a stupid fight.
This is not Berto vs Trabant it is much closer and Stieglitz has good stamina and solid skills to outbox Andrade and maybe Andrades chin has soften up a bit a after the kessler beating. He took some crazy combos in that fight.
I also like that Torsten Schmitz is training Stieglitz now he is my favorite german trainer.
I am waiting on my man as always he is playing the under or Stieglitz. If he plays Stieglitz watch out. I let you know.

 

[gardenweasel]

The under on andrade is an okay play but Andrade straight at over - 400 is not smart.
Dont get me wrong Andrade is a quality fighter and a great dog play because of his power and stamina but he is also very beatable.
I played Andrade against mack and i did like what i saw there. Andrade got lucky and Mack fought a stupid fight.
This is not Berto vs Trabant it is much closer and Stieglitz has good stamina and solid skills to outbox Andrade and maybe Andrades chin has soften up a bit a after the kessler beating. He took some crazy combos in that fight.
I also like that Torsten Schmitz is training Stieglitz now he is my favorite german trainer.
I am waiting on my man as always he is playing the under or Stieglitz. If he plays Stieglitz watch out. I let you know.

tony.....i agree that andrade ain`t all that good...but,he is a helluva lot more dangerous than marlon(i lost 10 outta my last 13 fights) hayes.....

you think fighting a legit opponent outside of germany will bother stieglitz?....

if you say take stieglitz at those odds,i`ll take a taste...

get back to us.....


btw...hbo showing this?...my guess is "no" and that they`ll show marquez/pacquaio...actually,now that i`ve thought about it,i know they won`t show it...

that`s ashamed...i`d love to see it...

 

[tonymontana]

tony.....i agree that andrade ain`t all that good...but,he is a helluva lot more dangerous than marlon(i lost 10 outta my last 13 fights) hayes.....

you think fighting a legit opponent outside of germany will bother stieglitz?....

if you say take stieglitz at those odds,i`ll take a taste...

get back to us.....


btw...hbo showing this?...my guess is "no" and that they`ll show marquez/pacquaio...actually,now that i`ve thought about it,i know they won`t show it...

that`s ashamed...i`d love to see it...

this will be shown live on Hbo before Casamajor.
I was never a fan of Stiglietz but he is a strong and skilled fighter but not a world class fighter but european elite level.
Alot of german boxing fans are expecting an Andrade ko too. But Steglitz is still young at 26 and should be fighting his heart out. I believe he comes in with the right gameplan which is without a doubt hit and run.

My man plays Kotelnik over rees and Katsidis and as biggest play the over in the Casa Katsidis fight.
I go with Kotelnik and maybe Kat but i dont like the over at -170.

 

[punchmaster]

What about Berrio wasting Stieglitz in 3 and I saw Stieglitz against Hayes and that was nothing to write home about.

I think Yusaf Mack came big time prepared and has much more the offensive arsenal than Stieglitz and I thought bombed the hell out of Andrade and couldn't keep him off. How is Stieglitz gong to?

 

[gardenweasel]

this will be shown live on Hbo before Casamajor.
I was never a fan of Stiglietz but he is a strong and skilled fighter but not a world class fighter but european elite level.
Alot of german boxing fans are expecting an Andrade ko too. But Steglitz is still young at 26 and should be fighting his heart out. I believe he comes in with the right gameplan which is without a doubt hit and run.

My man plays Kotelnik over rees and Katsidis and as biggest play the over in the Casa Katsidis fight.
I go with Kotelnik and maybe Kat but i dont like the over at -170.

thanks...i really wish i had seen katsidis at least once......

 

[punchmaster]

hey guys

I'm not really feeling the total either way. Let me throw something crazy out there, if your not crazy about the under and want to play the fight anyway..... a minimum on Vera +1000 to win.

Not so crazy after all. Very nice call. Less and less sold on what comes out of Manny Steward's mouth, who was saying Lee was ready for Pavlik now. Manny should be at a further low 4/12 after Cintron gets hammered. .. lot of us seemed to be hesitating on putting much down on the under tonight and looking for a reason too. Our intuition on the hesitation was right. Don't think anyone put too much on it.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Great call Spread, good to have you back, Hellephant was a nice surprise as well

Stick around fellas

 

[frank s.]

Well, it was an exciting fight, even though I got smoked with my parlay. Maybe I can recover tommorrow.

 

[Spreadking]

I wish I would have put more on Vera :shrug:

I also put some on Lee by decision......but I sill made a decent profit.

I just re-started with a new account....and will look to build up slowly.

I find this to be the best place for helpful info.
thanks for the good words.

now, let's hope Yory Boy shows up tomorrow to kick some azz in Ireland tomorrow.
Macklin has his flaws....but the hometown decision really bothers me the most.

 

[Spreadking]

:0corn


Rees via dec over Kotelnik at +200. I think the little kid can get inside and flurry home a home ground decision.

Kotelnik got the draw vs MBaye...why not another one for good measure. I think this fight will be very close on the cards as well.

 

[gardenweasel]

it was eerie watching lee....in the face,he looks an awful lot like teddy atlas.......lol....

vera`s a gritty mo-fo....lord he ate alot of straight shots....

teddy asked him after the fight,"whattaya think would`ve happened if lee followed those straight lefts with the right hook?".....

what was vera supposed to say?..."he`d have beaten me like a rented mule?"....i laughed out loud...

.those that took the under made a decent wager regardless of the outcome.....it was obvious after watching that war why anybody would have suspected an early stoppage...

just a tough break...vera refused to take the pipe...