frank s. said:
As a side note, I already bet Tarver at -200 here in Sin City for a fairly hefty sum, at least for me. The arbitrage is there already. I wonder if I should play Hoppy now at +260 or so to cut down my odds, or do you feel the number on Tarver will leak up closer to fight time? Any and all responses are welcome.
As posted above, I played Tarver at -210 so we're in the same boat, which way should we go frankie?
My initial thought was to just take it at that cheap price and let it ride (I was expecting -300 or more)
Then I decided that hedging with Hopkins by decision at +350 or more was the way to go as there's no way Hopkins will stop him.
But now I'm not so sure. Tarver just got done shooting Rocky 12 and had to gain weight to play the heavyweight role, he said he was over 200 lbs. He also claims he's gonna prove that RJJ's excuse for losing their first fight was bogus...by losing the same amount of weight and performing well.
Here's the problem, Tarver bet Hop 250,000 that he will stop him inside 5 rounds. Thats not good for the Hop decision prop as Tarver could punch himself out early and be drained down the stretch from dropping too much weight. I still don't think Hopkins could hurt him but Tarver could pull a W. Klit and fall over from exhaustion.
The investor in me says scalp at +275 or better, take the free money and enjoy the fight. The gambler in me says let it ride at a great price. Tarver is sooo much bigger than Hopkins who is really a junior middleweight having fought at 156 and 157 in the last few years at almost 40 years old. Hop hasn't looked that great in the last few years, he may have deserved to win one or both of the Taylor fights, but Taylors not that special and Hop was very inactive in both fights. He knew he had to be more active in the second fight, but he wasn't. I can't imagine Hop letting his hands go against a legit and powerful light heavy. And Tarver is a taller southpaw, remember how ineffective Hopkins was against lefty Robert Allen in their last fight. Allen is only 5'9" Tarver is 6'2" and he's naturally 20 lbs heavier.
The only thing that concerns me about letting the bet ride...is Tarver dropping 25 pounds to make weight and punching himslef out in the early rounds.
gl in whatever you decide my friend
bl