Boxing 4/1 - 4/2

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +14.0 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit plays: 5-0 +4.6
.5 unit plays: 19-12 +.1
Dogs: 20-14 +7.3

4/2
Cunningham-Jones over 9.5 -215 1/2 unit (winner)

4/2 Dogs
Rivera-Collazo over 9.5 +105 1/2 unit (winner)
Karmazin-Holmes over 11.5 +100 1/2 unit (winner)
Karmazin over Holmes +140...lay .2 to win .3 (winner)
Cunningham over Jones +120...lay .2 to win .25 (winner)
Rivera by 12 round decision +258...lay .2 to win .5 (loser)


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

damn,man....do you have super speed internet?....lol....

i`ve been looking for a particular line(still not up) and i`ve been checking regularly.....

you are way to fast for me....

you hire scouts?.....you beat the wife if she doesn`t get the lines as soon as they post? :lol: :mj01:

i`m a little surprised at that holmes/karmazin number....they are listing over 11.5...still,unless karmazin`s competition is totally garbage,thei looks for all the world like a distance fight....holmes has been inactive to boot...

two tall boxers...

unless karmazin is garbage,i totally agree...at even money...have to...

as far as guillermo jones goes,i think the guy is a pretty difficult guy to fight....haven`t seen cunningham....i know he decisioned sebatian rothmann in s.africa....a solid win....

jones is a very tall awkward lefty...a tough nut....

i`ll dig a little more and ask some brits i know about jones` draw with johnny nelson in britain....nelson`s pretty tough over there...to get a draw,my guess is that jones probably won....

give us peons :mj12: a break,o.k.....(pee ons...get it)

 

[BOXLOCKS]

.....you beat the wife if she doesn`t get the lines as soon as they post?

Only if the lines move on me :nono:

 

[BOXLOCKS]

give us peons :mj12: a break,o.k.....(pee ons...get it)

You finally found a fitting place for the pissing squirrel. To be honest, I kinda like it myself.


Hey check your e-maill in a few...

 

[Spreadking]

Following you on the Holmes-Karmazin over 11.5 rounds

Karmazin has never been stopped. He went 12 with Castijello, who is a good average all around fighter. average power, average speed. Holmes has good hand speed and he is so tall, he'll have at least 2 inches, but Holmes has never been a great puncher. He would have to wear Karmazin down to get a stoppage. Holmes also doesn't get stopped. I see this going 12 hard fought rounds. If Holmes keeps Karmazin out with the jab, then it will be a long night for Karmazin.

My only other play is Wayne Braithwaite by decision +300
Wayne talks a big game, but he will come out boxing. Of course, Mormeck is fairly easy to hit, so if Wayne goes crazy, he might get worn down quick. both guys are tough, and want to win this. but Mormeck is to slow to keep up with Braithwaite. as long as Wayne doesn't get stuck on the ropes, from getting tired, then he will have it all his way. I think Mormeck comes on and wins the late rounds, but not enough overall.

good luck.

good luck boxlox, wish that cunningham/jones fight was on TV, and getting don king off TV fights are not easy. they rarely play oversea's.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Spread
Glad you agree with the Holmes over play.
I'm also glad to see you posting here. I've seen enough of your work to know that your input is valuable. There's not too many boxing guys here but the ones we have are very knowledgable. I'd rather have 5 sharps posting here than 100 fans. A lot of money has been made in the boxing end of this forum, I'm sure your opinions will only add to the profits.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Jones-Cunningham...part 1

Jones-Cunningham...part 1

Let me start by showing Jones' weight throughout his career...

2004 / 31 years old.....200
2002 / 29 years old.....190
2001 / 28 years old.....175
2000 / 27 years old.....164
1998 / 25 years old.....154
1996 / 23 years old.....147

Personally I have never seen a guy go from welterweight to damn near heavyweight in 8 years. The fact that he didn't start the move untill 23 years old is even more amazing. We all know that our bone structure is done growing at 23 so Jones is obviously fighting way above his natural weight.

Jones had a lot power at 147 and some power at 154 but thats about it. Most of his ko's since then were against scrubbs that were supposed to get ko'd.

At 154 Jones twice went the distance with Boudouani who was stopped by Razzano in 93'

At 164 Jones went the distance with Ballogou and Watts. Ballogou was stopped by Vanderpool in the 2nd round a few years later. Watts was stopped in 5 of his last 10 fights with Jones' decision coming right in the middle.

At 175 Jones stopped a guy that was ko'd in 7 of his last 8 fights

At 190 Jones went the distance with all 3 fighters he faced

Since then Jones has only fought twice and both times it was against a complete scrub that gave up in the 1st round. Since the end of 2002, Jones has only fought a total of 2 minutes and 57 seconds!!!

-------------------------------------------------------------------

The boss (my wife) is riding my ass right now so I better go. I'll finish this tomarrow...after my honey-do list of course!

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

not disputing your facts....

just want to add that jones has a 6`4" frame....and drew with champ johnny nelson in england....and nelson hasn`t lost since "95"..nelson is ranked right behind mormeck and braithwaite in many ratings.....and #1 in some(including boxrec)...

jones has never lost in a bout above 154...

here`s a synopsis of the nelson/jones bout.....from a brit who is a nelson fan....it was ugly,as are most jones fights...but the guy is a tough nut...

""""Secondsout rated as the worst decision of the year, I had it Jones by 8. Nelson was at his negative best, Jones wasn't much better - it was a terrible, terrible "fight". Jones was just the lesser of two evils that night.

Jones of course was suspended for failing a drugs test and thats why is scheduled enforced rematch with Johnny never happend....(some say nelson wouldn`t fight jones again)...

Whilst Jones started at a Light Middle (how I don't know) his frame was very similar to Nelson's (who is considered a big and tall Cruiser). Jones is quite a gangly fighter and awkard, seems suprising strong at the weight as well.

However, the fight with Nelson was a snoozefest of the highest order. I blame Nelson for that and thats why I scored the fight big for Jones (as did EVERYONE else except for three people). Jones tried a little bit harder and maybe landed 4 punches per round (compared to Nelson's one). Jones' effort was poor considering he was challenging, but did enough to win the fight by some distance. I honestly believe Nelson had some fear of Jones and thats why he fought like that, when he has no fear he can look good (as he did beating up former Sparring partner Rudigier May last time). However, against Jones he was awful and very lucky.

So it is a hard fight to judge Jones on because everytime Jones tried to do something, Nelson would tie him up. """"

not saying you shouldn`t take a whack at cunningham...the win over rothmann in s.africa was a good win....and he`s king`s boy...anything close will probably go cunningham`s way...

but,don`t underestimate jones...he`s a very difficult guy to fight...

very awkward...

best of luck...

 

[Spreadking]

I am expecting the Cunningham/Rothmann fight in anytime now, but I'm not sure I will get it by this weekend. Rothmann was coming off a bad come from behind kayo loss. It will be interesting to see if he wasn't very confident vs Cunningham or not. Jones is a veteran, so is a toss up to me right now, not having seen Cunningham. could be a draw.

 

[gardenweasel]

the first salvo in mormeck/braithwaite..r

the first salvo in mormeck/braithwaite..r

happens saturday night on showtime in connecticut....

and a doozy it should be....

anxious to hear some comments...particularly on mormeck...who appears to be a bull....

as for braithwaite,he has an extensive amateur background replete with a pan am games gold medal and a golden gloves championship....

he`s tall...a lefty....switches up.....has a long reach and fights that way...likes to get extension on his shots...

can box if he has to as shown when he broke his hand in the 3rd round in his last fight vs louis azille...after knocking him down...the 1st fight in a very long time that`s gone the distance...and it was due to injury...

mormeck appears to wear guys down....i`m not sure about his one punch power due to his later stoppages vs the better competition he`s faced...despite his body builder`s appearance...

braithwaite does,for a fact,have one punch k.o power....one of those long guys that generates alot of leverage on his shots....and he`s a lefty...

braithwaite will be very dangerous early...if mormeck is careless....

and i can`t reconcile the close decision win in his last fight vs 41 yr old virgil hill...who most reports indicated looked every bit of 41 yrs old...and a questionnable knockdown appears to have been the difference...

i lean to braithwaite because i see him as being multi-dimensional...mormeck will,apparently,bull forward and try and slow braithwaite down and get him late...

the broken left hand could be a big ???? for braithwaite....this will be the first test for it..whomever wins becomes an elite fighter...a convincing win really catapults the winner into upper pfp echelon,imo....

both fighters coming off almost year long layoffs....braithwaite 3 fights in 2 years...mormeck 2....

i lean braithwaite right now...but,i`m not schooled on mormeck..never seen the man fight...i`m very impressed with braithwaite...judging by the odds,mormeck must be very,very good.....i know he`s don king`s boy...and that`s always a concern...and he`s super strong...

some mormeck info would be appreciated....

that was my question...and here`s the reply on mormeck...

"""About 4 years ago we had a thread on this site about who your favourite fighters were. Even back then I chose Mormeck, who was just great to watch on the Euro scene.

This fight may be a case of irresistable force (braithwaite) meets unstoppable object (Mormeck). Mormeck bobs and weaves and gets in and unloads. He doesn't back out though, he likes to stay in the zone and unload. This may disrupt Braithwaite a bit, if he likes a bit of room to fight. Mormeck tucks his head beautifully into his chest while advancing, wihch combined with his muscular neck and shoulders presents a small target for his opponent. It also means Braithwaite may land that previously broken hand against the hard as steel forehead a lot.

Personally I dont think the lay-offs will affect either fighter much. Braithwaite seems hungry and with his punishment absorbing style(not sure what he meant by this), the less fights for Mormeck the better.

I'm going with Braithwaite because.....it's at 200lbs, not at 190lbs. I think Braithwaite has the frame to use that better and I think 190 was the perfect weight for Mormeck. At 200 he might be too muscled up and maybe lost a little speed through it. But Braithwaite had better be prepared for a war or to fight in reverse gear cos Mormeck will not be changing his tactics. """""

i think that last point was very important....both guys usually fight aropund 190...the extra 10 pounds on a guy with braithwaite`s frame may actually help him....mormeck looks like a body builder.....he`s the sergio oliva of boxing....i don`t know where 10 extra pounds goes on his frame....

his one fight over 190(196 vs 41 yr old virgil hill)he ran out of gas and would have drawn or maybe even lost if not for a slip that was called a knockdown....

as i said,i`ve never seen mormeck...i know he`s a bull...not a one punch guy...a wear you down,rough you up guy....

if the left hand holds up,i like braithwaite....more versatile...better amateur background...fighting in the states....

but,again,i`ve never seen mormeck...and the don king factor looms over any fight that gets to the cards like the sword of damocles...

i hope everything goes down smoothly because we may be looking at the most significant cruiserwt. bout since holi/qawi in "86".....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Cunningham-Jones part 2

Cunningham-Jones part 2

The point of part 1 was to show that Jones is fighting way above his natural weight and that his power hasn't carried well as he continues to move up.

Cunningham has fought around 185 for the 4.5 years he's been a pro, but he doesn't have much power either. He has won 5 of his last 6 by decision and has failed to stop some serious scrubs along the way.

*Truesdale has been stopped 30 times in the first 4 rounds but Cunningham couldn't get it done.

*Awinongya had been stopped twice before, but Cunningham couldn't do it.

*Jenkins had been stopped 3 times prior to Cunn, and 4 times after him, but Cunn couldn't get it dunn.

*McGroom was ko'd in 3 consecutive fights prior to the Cunn fight, sure enough it went the distance.

*Rothman was coming off a 9th round stoppage to 40 year old Carl Thompson before going the distance with Cunningham.

Obviously Cunningham is not a puncher, Jones is fighting way above his natural weight and he left his power at 154 so I don't expect either guy to do a lot of damage here. Jones has gone the distance with Nelson, and Cunningham has gone the distance with Rothman so both guys have solid chins at this weight. Combine that with the lack of power between these two and I think this goes over the 9.5 easily.


As far as the side goes, I took a small shot at the very live dog for a few reasons...

*I'm not real impressed with Jones' draw against Nelson. GW's post confirms that Jones deserved to win, but it also confims that Nelson looked like sh*t in that fight. Nelson was decent in his prime but he was 36 when he fought Jones. IMO Nelson wasn't that great in his prime, it was avery weak cruiserweight division back then. I don't know how boxrec can put him at #1 over Bell, Davis, Mormeck, and Braith. I would take every one of those guys over Nelson right now...no question.

*Cunningham's decision over Rothman in S. Africa is impressive. Rothman was dominating the fight against Thompson prior to getting caught in the 9th round.

*Cunningham being promoted by Don King is a very important factor in a fight that should go the distance. If the fight is close, Cunningham has a definite advantage on the scorecards.

*The +money is a big part of my play here. In a fight that could go either way, I'll take Don King and the +money every time.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

i hear you...just throwing some info into the mix...

as dave chappelle would saying,i`m trying to "keep it real"....

you can`t underestimate the king factor....that pretty much queered the deal for me....and has me thinking hedge in mormeck/ braithwaite....

the king factor...a very real consideration when you start spending real money...

if that over doesn`t hit,i`ll be surprised....

g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Braithwaite-Mormeck

Braithwaite-Mormeck

I think Braithwaite's left hand is the biggest factor to consider in this fight. I'm not a doctor and I don't know exaclty what bone was fractured, but I broke a bone in my left hand a few years ago and it hasn't been the same since. The spot where I broke it was tender for at least a year.

Obviously there will be some big shots in this fight, especially from Braithwaite. How many times can he hit Mormeck's bullish head before his hand goes.

Braithwaite's hand could have the biggest influence on the side and total of this fight. Unfortunatly there's no way to tell how the hand will hold up which makes betting on this fight a total crap shoot.

My initial play for this fight before it was rescheduled again was the under 11.5 -130. But the more I think about the hand issue the more I dislike laying wood on any outcome of this fight.

I might play Mormeck by decision +400 since
he's promoted by Don King and Braith's hand could give out early.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

can`t argue the logic.....particularly since braithwaite hasn`t thrown that left hand in a real fight since he broke it.....

say what you want,that hand has to be knawing at the back of his brain...

he can beat louis azille with one hand....mormeck?....doubtful...

if i were mormeck,after wetting the bed vs virgil hill,i`d go back to my best weight(around 190),and let the chips fall where they may...

should be a goody...

 

[Spreadking]

both fighters are promoted by King, but i'm sure he'd rather Braithwaite win, because Braithwaite will want to make a move to heavy within a couple years. and if he is an undisputed, undefeated champion. it would give him some name recognition.

Braithwaite has that kayo power, where as Mormeck has TKO power ? he wears guy's down and punches hard if you stand there or get tired and can't move. Braithwaite loves to test chin's and brawl. I will be concerned to see Mormeck's chin early. No reason for Wayne to go crazy though in this big fight. at least I hope he doesn't.

great work Boxlox, on researching cunningham. i will probably play the over. rothmann also had thompson down twice in that fight. Thompson's kayo of power punching David Haye in his next fight showed he is not washed up. So we can say that Rothmann is a good puncher and Cunningham went the distance and didn't get dropped.

 

[gardenweasel]

just trying to psyche you guys up for what could be a great....maybe all-time great cruiserwt bout...considering that the cruisers haven`t been around all that long....

 

[gardenweasel]

braithwaite 188/mormeck 198

braithwaite 188/mormeck 198

that surprises me a bit....figured braithwaite would come in heavier than that...considering the 200 lb limit...

heaviest weight of mormeck`s career...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

The more I think about this fight the more I agree with Spreads pick of Braithwaite by decision, I see a +325 out there.

As we have mentioned, Braithwaite's hand is a big issue, especially when fighting a large thick headed bull like Mormeck.

Even if Braith's hand holds up I could see this going the distance. Mormeck is a very solid guy thats never been dropped let alone stopped.

This fight has been scheduled and rescheduled a few times now and each time the oddsmakers reopened the under 11.5 at -120 or -130 even though it got nailed at that price after every previous opening. Which tells me that they don't mind having more money on the under, which means they think there's a good chance this fight goes the distance, and I agree.

Like Spread said, Braith talks a big game but he will come out boxing. I've read a few Braith interviews and each time he talks about how Mormeck is one dimensional and that he can't box at all. I think Braith really believes that and therefore he knows his best chance of winning is to outbox the limited Mormeck. And if Braith's hand starts bothering him the boxing strategy will be his only option.

As I said before, the hand issue will keep me from laying the wood on any outcome of the fight. But the hand problem might actually make the Braith by decision prop more valuable. I'll post my final play tomarrow but right now I'm leaning towards Spreads play of Braith by decision +325.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

From a Mormeck interview I found at boxinginsider...

Worst Injury: "When I broke my hand in '95 in a fight (TKO 4 Frederic Goutal in his second pro fight). Had three surgeries after that."


Very interesting

 

[frank s.]

My play:Braithwaite by dec. parlayed with Holmes-Kamarzin over 11.5. Pays 7-1.