Boxing 4/10 - 4/12

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +3.50
1 unit play: 1-1 -0.30
1/2 units: 20-8....+3.40
Dogs: 12-26....+1.05
LT's: 0-8....-0.65


4/9 Dog

Vargas by 12 round decision +460....lay .10 to win .45 (loser)


4/11 Dogs

Santana over Lopez +225...lay .30 to win .70 (winner)

Smith over Karass +450...lay .10 to win .45 (loser)

Parlay

Bruseles over Tackie -260 / Cotto over Gomez -850...(-180)...lay .60 to win .35 (winner)



4/12 Dogs

Cintron-Marg Under 9.5 +125...lay .40 to win .50 (winner)

Sylvester over Castillejo +125...lay .25 to win .30 (winner)

Castillejo-Sylvester Under 10.5 +185...lay .15 to win .30 (loser)

Cintron over Margarito +275...lay .20 to win .55 (loser)

Woods over Tarver +135...lay .30 to win .40 (loser)



4/12 Parlays

Marquez +16.5 points -195 / Cotto over Gomez -1050....(-150).... lay .45 to win .30 (winner)

Andrade over Stiegletz -350 / Cotto over Gomez -800...(-220)...Lay 1.0 to win .45 (winner)

Rees-Kotelnik Over 11.5 -380 / Cotto over Gomez -1050....(-260)....Lay 1.05 to win .40 (winner)

Antillon over Pacquiao -210 / Dawson over Johnson -275...lay .50 to win .50 (winner)

Mtagwa-Valtierra Over 9.5 -350 / Dawson over Johnson -330...(-150)...lay .90 to win .60 (winner)

Ruiz-McCline Over 9.5 -300 / Dawson over Johnson -330...(-135)...lay .60 to win .45 (winner)

Hedge Gomez +1000...lay .20 to win 2.0 (L)


Pending Parlays

Woods-Tarver Over 11.5 -210 (winner) / Sarritzu-Inom Over 9.5 -350...(-110)...lay .55 to win .50

Molitor over Castillo -600 (winner) / Hopkins-Calzaghe Over 11.5 -290....(-175)....lay .60 to win .35


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Parlay

Woods-Tarver Over 11.5 -210 / Sarritzu-Inom Over 9.5 -350...(-110)...lay .55 to win .50


gl bl

 

[weepaul]

I am playing Sebastian Sylvester to beat Javier Castillejo at +138.

The fight is in Germany, Castillejo is 40 and Sylvester has always been a middleweight or Super Middleweight, so he should be the bigger man.

Good Luck all.

 

[frank s.]

Castillejo's last 4 fights were in Germany so that doesn't seem to be an issue. He also managed to KO Strum, not an easy task for an old SOB. He also has height advantage here. The last guy Slyvester beat was a frenchman with a spotty record, and before that, Rotolo, your basic lollipop.At 40 years I can understand your thought process here, but one never knows, do one?

 

[gardenweasel]

i caught b.hop. early on at +260......now i see that calzaghe by decision is around -123.....and i don`t see joe stopping hopkins....

so if anybody jumped on bernard early and has cold feet,theres a nice hedge in there....

 

[weepaul]

Castillejo's last 4 fights were in Germany so that doesn't seem to be an issue. He also managed to KO Strum, not an easy task for an old SOB. He also has height advantage here. The last guy Slyvester beat was a frenchman with a spotty record, and before that, Rotolo, your basic lollipop.At 40 years I can understand your thought process here, but one never knows, do one?

AGREED!! One never knows but one sometimes has to go with ones gut.

Good Luck all.

 

[Romi]

I have a very healthy amount on Dawson. I strted @-310 and the last wager was -330. Odds are now -360. I have about 6k on it. As I've said before, I believe Johnson needs a ko to win and I don't see it happening. Chad will put a hurting on him and I see a wide dec or perhaps even a late accumulation stoppage.

 

[almly]

Good luck. Personally, I dont think Dawson is that great. If Adamazek had some heart he could of finished him after that knockdown, he was there for the taking.

And I dont think anything of Adamazek. I thought he lost to Briggs before that Dawson fight.

 

[almly]

Thats good sh!t Spinch. There is no way I can see Calzaghe stopping him. Calzaghe by decision at -123 is a great play in my opinion.

Are you telling me that you honestly dont like that as a stragight up play - screw the hedge?

Who do you think is going to win this fight?

 

[Romi]

Good luck. Personally, I dont think Dawson is that great. If Adamazek had some heart he could of finished him after that knockdown, he was there for the taking.

And I dont think anything of Adamazek. I thought he lost to Briggs before that Dawson fight.

I disagree. It was a flash kd and Dawson was not hurt He got right back up and wasn't the least bit wobbly and finished strong.

 

[Romi]

Good luck. Personally, I dont think Dawson is that great. If Adamazek had some heart he could of finished him after that knockdown, he was there for the taking.

And I dont think anything of Adamazek. I thought he lost to Briggs before that Dawson fight.

I disagree. It was a flash kd and Dawson was not hurt He got right back up and wasn't the least bit wobbly and finished strong. Other than the kd, Dawson completely dominated the unbeaten fighter.

 

[Zerwas]

5dimes put up some interesting props the last two days.

I like Cotto by decision and Gomez +12.5, that's IMO a good hedge if you have a lot of money riding on cotto.

I already played Gomez WPTS at +2500 and W at +900. bet365 still has Gomez WPTS at +2300.

Gomez might be the underdog, but with his workrate and his chin....


All the good lines have been deteriorating, but that s just the way it is...


I dont know about Dawson, he is extremely skilled, but he looks a bit fragile to me.
He's been moving up in weight and certainly not as strong or tough as Johnson.

The thing about Dawson, he has been knocked dwon twice, when he fought good opposition.
Hardly a coincidence!? :shrug:
Maybe he wasnt really hurt by Adamek, but did certainly hang on a little, which was a smart move, considering that he was way ahead....

I think there is some potential that the fight might end in the last rounds, either because Johnsson is tired and Dawson too dominant, or Dawson gets caugth.

I still pick Dawson by decision.

 

[frank s.]

I don't know if Gomez fully realizes what he is going up aganist. If Cotto is in full search and destroy mode, Gomez will breakdown surely. I really hope Gomez ruffles Cotto's feathers, as this will incite Cotto and he will take him out. This is a giant step up for Gomez; he may trip on the way up!

 

[tonymontana]

Romi i would seriously consider playing Johnson inside at 750 throw in something like Magarito inside plus Castilljo under and you have at least some kind of worst case scenario.
I recommend playing three to five parlays.
Invest like 150 to 200.
I always do this when i am going all out.
Doesnt work all the time but it saved my ass big time a few times ending up winning more money than with the original bet.
With your lin of reasoning Dawson - 12,5 at -115 should look good too.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


4/9 Dog

Vargas by 12 round decision +460....lay .10 to win .45


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

throw in something like Magarito inside plus Castilljo under

SB opened Castillejo Under 10.5 +185...way too high, I'm on it as well, thanks for the heads up

gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

Adding


4/9 Dog

Vargas by 12 round decision +460....lay .10 to win .45


gl bl

Good pick box, that 114-114 score was probably most accurate. Was not impressed with Whitfield at all. Hometown does it again.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Parlay

Bruseles over Tackie -260 / Cotto over Gomez -850...(-180)...lay .60 to win .35


gl bl

 

[Romi]

I took Bruseles -260 and -325 as well. If Bruseles doesn't get stupid, he wins.

 

[Romi]

Romi i would seriously consider playing Johnson inside at 750 throw in something like Magarito inside plus Castilljo under and you have at least some kind of worst case scenario.
I recommend playing three to five parlays.
Invest like 150 to 200.
I always do this when i am going all out.
Doesnt work all the time but it saved my ass big time a few times ending up winning more money than with the original bet.
With your lin of reasoning Dawson - 12,5 at -115 should look good too.

Thx for the comments Tony. I may hedge a little. It's a hefty amt but as I've said many times I NEVER maker a wager that I'm not willing to part with. A lot of weird shit occurs in this sport so I won't be devastated if Johnson finds a way to win, not to say the loss won't hurt. That being said, I really like dawson in this one. He's younger, faster, taller, rangier, more pop IMO and I think he's the real deal. Johnson is/was a very good fighter but always beatable. Johnson faded late against Woods 18 mnths back and I don't put Woods in Dawsons category even though Dawson has yet to be truly tested.

Funny thing is I won't be able to watch this one live. It's poker night...I had beginners luck last mnth and left w/all the loot. I REALLY want to watch the fight but I'd feel like a chump if i didn't give them a shot to get their money back. I'll be watching it via dvr about midnight and I'll chime in here after I see it.