Boxing 4/22 - 4/23

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +17.1 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 6-0 +5.8
.5 unit plays: 24-13 +.95
Dogs: 26-18 +8.35


4/21
Froch over Porras -280...lay 1.1 to win .4 (winner)

4/21 Dogs
Morua over Kim +190...lay .2 to win .4 (winner)
Froch-Porras under 9.5 +260...lay .1 to win .25 (winner)

4/22
Ibragimov over Lawrence -242...lay 1 to win .4 (winner)
Ibragimov-Lawrence under 10.5 -105...lay .25 (winner)

4/22 Dogs
Ahunanya over Guinn +535...lay .1 to win .55 (draw)
Cauthen over Williams +240...lay .1 to win .25 (loser)

4/23
McCline over Brock -180 1/2 unit (loser)

Parlay
Guzman -900 / Mosley -650 / Ibragimov -310...lay .5 to win .35 (winner)


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Cintron-Margarito

Cintron-Margarito

The Cintron-Margarito fight could go either way but I played Cintron +109 a couple weeks ago. He throws the straighter, quicker, and harder punches. Margarito will be the aggressor and he will try to put constant pressure on Cintron, Margs defense is his constant offense. But against a big straight puncher like Cintron it could get him knocked out. Marg throws a lot of punches but he throws them very wide and looping, Cintron will look to counter those wild shots with shorter, straighter, and stiffer counters as Marg comes in. I think Cintron will hurt Marg early which will take Marg out of his game plan. When Santos fought Marg he didn't back up, he stood his ground and landed straight shots as Marg came forward with wide ones. Marg didn't have an answer as Santos' quicker stiffer punches continued to land first. Cintron will have the exact same strategy, the kicker here is that when Cintron's punches land, they will hurt Marg much more than Santos' did. Cintron showed a great chin in the Teddy Reid fight, Reid hits as hard as anyone at 147 and he didn't hurt Cintron once.

Margarito has a great chin, he has some power in those wide punches and he throws a lot of them. Marg also has more experience. But I still like Cintron here with the quicker and straighter punches.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

McCline-Brock

McCline-Brock

I know what we'll get from McCline but Brock is still a question mark to me. I have seen him fight a couple of times and I wasn't real impressed. Those fights were against mediocre comp, I'm interested to see what he will do against a very big man with decent skills. One thing's for sure, if the fight goes past 8 or 9 rounds McCline will get very tired, a man his size can only keep a pace for so long and we all saw what happened to him at the end of the Byrd fight. He was almost stopped by the lightest puncher in the division, not because he was hurt, just exhausted. Brock doesn't have near the skill of Byrd but he hits harder, and if he can withstand the barrage of punches McCline will throw in the first few rounds, he has a chance. Hell, anyone that can take McCline deep into a fight has a chance. Having said that, I still think McCline will be too much for Brock early in this fight. It took everything Byrd had to get out of the first few rounds against Mccline and he was dropped hard once. Brock's not nearly as skilled defensively as Byrd so he will get drilled early and often in this fight. Will he have the chin to take it, who knows, but I dought it. And Brock doesn't have the experience that Byrd used to take McCline into the late rounds.

I would take McCline straight but I'd rather cut the odds down a little with a Mosley parlay.

gl bl

 

[Spreadking]

Cintron was even hurt (his hand broken) vs Reid and sucked it up and won the fight. Of course Reid is known for a bad chin. Should be a good fight. good luck.

My only play so far has been on McCline. He is too big, he won't be hurt by Brock. Brock had trouble with Terry Smith last summer. plus there is a sparring session going around the message boards which have McCline hurting and dropping a south-paw fighting Brock. I guess getting ready for McCline-Byrd. That was with the head gear on as well. If McCline fights like that vs a Brock he shouldnt' be scared of. McCline isn't scared anymore like he used to be. at least his last 2 fights have shown that. He shouldn't get winded by Brock, because Brock can't make you miss like Byrd. I guess people going with Brock will think Mccline will get tired like he did in the byrd fight. I would say then Brock has a chance if he can do that, a big if.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Mosley-Estrada

Mosley-Estrada

I think Mosley is too quick, too offensively skilled, and too experienced for Estrada. Less than 2 years ago Estrada lost a lopsided UD to Ishe Smith. Mosely has fought the best of the best at 147 and 154...TWICE, he won some of those fights and lost close decisions in others. Wright was 2"taller, a southpaw, and naturally bigger but Mosley gave him all he could handle in their last fight. DLH is arguably one of the best fighters of my time and Mosley beat him twice, once at 147, and once at 154. Estrada will have to be better than DLH, and as good as Wright, to beat a ripped Mosley at 147. I don't see it happening. Estrada is the same height, gives up 4" of reach, gives up the speed advantage big time, gives up the skills advantage big time, and doesn't have near the experience of Mosley.

Mosley dropping weight shouldn't be a factor here, 147 is where Shane belongs imo. I have heard some very good things from his training camp, they say he's much faster than he was at 154, and because of the speed increase he is actually hitting harder than he was at 154. This fight is only scheduled for 10 rounds, so even if dropping the weight effects his stamina, it shouldn't play much of a role here. However the -600 is unplayable so I'll hook him up with McCline for now and probably something else later as lines become available.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Cintron was even hurt (his hand broken) vs Reid

I was referring to Cintron's chin


Glad you agree on McCline. I just realized that fight is only scheduled for 10 rounds. Thats a huge advantage for McCline imo. The only way I could see him losing was if he got tired in the late rounds. I might just play him straight now.


gl bl

 

[KillerInstinct]

thanks for your insight and the picks boxlocks! they are a huge help.

 

[frank s.]

Hey box, how's it hanging? As much as I like Margarito, I too took the price with Cintron. How about a round prop play here? I see some fireworks, with Cintron looking to end it sooner rather than later. Margarito will respond in kind. Did you actually lay the lumber on Mosley(-600) or is it just your opinion? Of course Angelo Dundee is high on Estrada, and at the price IF I was going to play this one I would take the dog. For value only. No opinion on "big time" and Brock. I'll look for some more posts to assist here. You are doing fine work,and as always, it's appreciated. Heard Corrales' training camp is going well and he is set. Talk at ya later.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

frankie
When Mosley opened -567 at pinny, I almost hit it straight. But the number is just too high and I'm not playing any heavy favorites for a while, besides one coming up and I'm going to e-mail you about it, you'll know why when you get it. I have made some serious cash this year on heavy favorites and I'm due to get screwed, so I'm laying off untill the above mentioned gem.

Anyway
So I parlayed Mosley with McCline, but I recently decided to also play McCline straight at -180. I have a feeling there's more lines coming out this week so I will save Mosley's parlay value for another play or two.

Glad you agree on Cintron, definitly not a lock but I like the style matchup here and the points I made about Margs fight with Santos are right on imo. gl to us

Round prop?
I wouldn't recommend the over!
Both of these guys are very tough, but both guys can do a lot of damage in a hurry. No play for me thanks.

Btw, I just played Corrales inside distance at +223 small. Castillo will be right there in front of him, I wouldn't recommend a middleweight to do that with Corrales. Value play

I'll send you that e-mail

gl bl

 

[Flipper13]

Guys,

I really like the chances for Corrales...I have already played him as my biggest boxing wager since the last time he fought which is a 2.5 unit wager for me...I may throw a little on Corrales to win inside the distance too...I wasn't sure if he could ko Frietas since he was 35-0 at that time, but now I really believe Corrales is steadily improving as a very very well versed boxer thanks to the work he has put in with his trainer Goosen...This Corrales team is ready to shine on 5/7/05...I believe that if by chance Chico puts Castillo on the run, that the fight is over...I think that it is more likely for Castillo just to go out on his shield before he starts backing up though...

Lol, I can't believe the line has dropped down at pinnacle to -126 on Chico...Pinnacle is a sharp sportsbook for the major sports, but these other sports, you can pick your spots against them.

 

[gardenweasel]

well,i have to agree with most on cintron.....this fight is a toss-up....and again,many savvy guys like margarito`s experience over a somewhat inactive cintron.....

box made some points that i always hold near and dear....a straight puncher vs a wide looping puncher....always like that match-up.....and i don`t think that margarito is stronger than cintron physically...cintron has shoulders like tommy hearns...he will be able to fight lt. middle and maybe middle with that frame...

i think margarito is a very good action fighter...not great...his offense is his defense...cintron will have to keep his composure..and look to counter those bolo`s and gancho`s that margarito throws...

composure...wait for margarito`s mistakes and make him pay...

but he has to keep margarito honest...can`t let him take control right from the jump...

although not exactly similar in styles,i think fighting teddy reid in his last fight,will help cintron...another tall offensive banger...that forces the action....

as far as resumes go,i`m not overwhelmed by margarito`s ledger...kyvelos...antonio diaz...six heads(and 12 chins)lewis....danny perez.....good competiton....no great wins,imo...santos is a good fighter...but margarito struggled with him...

not sure that margarito has ever fought a puncher like cintron...a guy that`s as tall,if not taller.....

could go either way...i`ll take cintron at +105...
----------------------
and contrary to many,i`m very leery of shane mosley...he hasn`t looked good,imo,since the Balco scandal broke...funny,but,roy jones seemed to fall apart not long after Balco.....coincidence?....maybe...

mosely moving back down to 147 has to help him...but,despite the ishe smith loss,estrada has improved alot in his last 2 fights...he was a dog,i believe,vs chris smith and suleymonoglu(??)....

shane will have to show me before i look to spend money on him....those odds are way to high with a ??? guy that`s been yo-yoing between weights and will be 34 in september...and has lost 4 of his last 6...albeit vs better guys than estrada... regardless of his talent...

..i wanted to play the over at -130...but i`ve read(and seen in his fights) that estrada will stay in shane`s chest...or try to..and estrada likes to switch to southpaw...could have headbutt potential...ala raul marquez..that means a potential stoppage....


not sure what shane brings to the table here...he SHOULD be way to much for estrada...but,i`m not so sure...at over 6-1?...not me...

should be a large class difference...but,i want to see the new mosely first....changing trainers and all that b.s....to much "flux" for my taste.....lol

maybe a very small play...a throw away...on estrada at + almost 500....5-1?...wth...

admittedly...if this thing happens to be close,shane will get the nod...know that....so,it is a throw away..very small play......THERE`S A REASON SHANE`S 6+ to 1...i get it...

honestly like my "pride" parlay to win much better than the fights.....

no diaz/elder?....f-ck that...

g.l.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

4/21
Froch over Porras -280 1/2 unit

4/21 Dogs
Morua over Kim +190...lay .2 to win .4
Froch-Porras under 9.5 +260...lay .2 to win .5

4/22
Ibragimov-Lawrence under 10.5 -105 1/2 unit

4/22 Dog
Ahunanya over Guinn +535...lay .1 to win .55

4/23
Haussler-Sanavia over 11.5 -300 1/2 unit

4/23 Dog
Haussler over Sanavia +165...lay .2 to win .35

Parlays on the way

gl bl

 

[HoopsGuru]

wow, i see froch is up to -390 at 5 dimes. can't believe i didn't put that one in yesterday. think that is too high or should i still go with it boxlocks? thanks for the consistent winners, you're the man

 

[gardenweasel]

porras has recently become nothing much more than an opponent....to set up guys for bigger paydays....

porras is being used,i believe,to set up a big money fight in the united kingdom between joe calzaghe and froch.....

which is sad.....sad because calzaghe`s career has been mismanged terribly and what was once a very promising career with multiple lucrative bouts available to him is now in resuscitation mode....

even a poor,stale calzaghe probably beats froch without much grief.......as froch will probably beat porras...unless froch is totally bogus.....

my friends say froch is a solid european level fighter...not really a threat to any truly world class guys(lacy,calzaghe,danny green,mads larsen,syd vanderpool etc).....

g.l. on the play..

 

[Spreadking]

True, Porras has not been winning, but he has only been stopped by de fuhrer Mikkel Kessler. Kessler will beat Mundine next month. Porras got a close lose to that bumb Haussler in Germany earlier this year. True, I don't know anything about Froch. good luck on that one guys.

Bun Jung-Kim
I have his last fight vs Satake. If I am not mistaken Satake was 2 inches taller than Moura. Kim blew through Satake like a piece of paper. Kim has no defense and was a pure slugger. made Tyson look like Roy Jones. Moura is a boxer with no pop, but good chin. If he can keep Kim missnig and on the outside, that would be his plan, but Moura gets tired late and if Kim can come on and win the late rounds it should be close. Kim has lost decisions before, so that is why I am staying away from the fight.

I think Haussler-Sanavia has been put off until next month
I should be able to give an in depth on that since I have both of Sanavia's fights vs Beyer, and a few Haussler fights. my first instinct is Sanavia by decision.

not much for me this weekend
took Mccline to win -180

Mosley by decision +105 (estrada is tough, just a hunch)
people dissing Mosley but he fought Winky close last time out.

Castillo by Kayo +500 (castillo fights exactly like williamson did in sept vs wlad)

guzman/beltran under 7.5 +100
guzman is a big puncher against an untested guy. take my chances. plus guzman got in shape.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Parlay
Guzman -900 / Mosley -650 / Ibragimov -310...lay 1 unit to win .7

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hoopsguru
Too much wood for me, I would parlay him with Ibragimov for a decent payout, or Mosley to drop the odds, Guzman is the most solid but the price won't bring the odds down much.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

4/22 Dog
Cauthen over Williams +240...lay .2 to win .5

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

watch out for guzman....talented....when he prepares,he`s a load...waiting for guzman/larios....

why no line on chris john/derrick gainer?......talk about flying under the radar....i realize that this is in indonesia,but c`mon...it`s a championship fight...

gainer looked like death vs marquez,but,he`s still a dangerous opponent if properly motivated...

why???

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I think Chris John suffered a cut in training but decided to go ahead with the fight anyway.
Oddmakers probably decided to stay away.