Boxing 4/28 - 4/30

[MayorgaFan]

Actually Calderon stopped Tunacao in 8 according to fightnews The guy at maxboxing was right about the Dieppa fight though....

Cazares dethrones Dieppa!
Caulderon TKOs Tunacao in eighth
Hugo Cazares (20-3-2, 14 KOs) claimed the WBO jr flyweight title with a ten round technical decision over Nelson Dieppa (22-2, 13 KOs) Saturday night in Puerto Rico. After nine rounds and change of give-and-take action, Dieppa's face had been busted up due to numerous accidental headbutts and referee Luis Pabon acting on the advice of the ring physician stopped the bout at 2:15 of the tenth and sent it to the judges where Cazares was ahead 98-92, 96-94 and 96-94.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WBO minimumweight champion Ivan Caulderon stopped challenger Noel Tunacao in round eight. Caulderon (22-0) dominated the bout from the opening bell while Tunacao (38-8-2) was unable to get any offense going at all. The bout was stopped when Caulderon trapped Tunacao in a corner and brutally punished him. Time was 2:25 of round eight.

 

[gardenweasel]

...i just read that ruiz retired....i guess that makes toney my hero....lol

we agreed that ruiz/toney wasn`t a good fight to step out on....with all the interesting peripheral action sitting out there....

calderon handles tunacao....your unders cash....

a very nice weekend....

the next month or so should be very interesting....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Another excellent week

Favs...3-1...+.6
Dogs...3-2...+.45

Total: 6-3 +1.05 units


I have posted 16 threads so far this year...

13 winning weeks
2 losing weeks
1 even

7 winning weeks in a row!!!

 

[amhlilhaus]

you have an enviable record, I'm still going over your old threads but I've learned some valuable stuff. thank you so much, keep up the great work.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

There are only 3-4 guys on the 'net posting boxing opinions from a betting standpoint, I do stop by here to check yours occasionally, for betting purposes and making lines.
For clarification and debate purposes, not argumentative - correct me if I'm wrong but if I read the above correctly you posted a rnd prop play on Castillo/Corrales here in the forum and then removed it. When I post a play, if I change my mind I buy the other side and take the hit in pocket and record, as that is only fair since no book I know of let's you just cancel and get refunded based on "I found a better bet". If others saw the original post and wagered it based on your recommendation than it is unfair to just delete the play afterwards. Or am I missing something here?
My main point of contention on what I read here is this - you state "it's too late to get a piece of this action", so, why then post the play at those numbers?
Some post to aid other bettors, some for ego, for record purposes. I have access to a lot more lines than most but if I can get a fight at -140 when it comes out, but quickly moves to -160 as the general line, I post the play at the price that is GENERALLY AVAILABLE to ALL.
Again, I do this in fairness. Same in other sports.
If one is a service or planning on opening one then gaining every edge for the posted record is understandable. I don't agree with it but I understand the motive.
But, if ones intention is altruistic and/or for info purposes than posting available numbers is the way to go.
Thoughts?

 

[frank s.]

For openers, to those of you that don't know Sonny, well I do, and he is a stand up guy so he is not here to ruffle anyone's feathers. Two points; I don't agree with posting a play and then taking it down without stating as much. Also, posting a play at "generally available lines" can be problematic. I feel a guy should post the play at the price HE got it at. I don't believe it Boxlock's obligation to peruse the net to average a line to post. Also, posting at the price he payed can help to demonstrate line movement. As for Sonny, he is in the business, so his viewpoint may be somewhat skewed to the "other side of the counter". Box does us all a service and he is our main bro, and we aren't all perfect. Lastly when I post, sometimes I will state I PLAYED such and such, meaning I pulled the trigger OR I like or lean a certain way. If I post a price I played at the number I post.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

thanks for the intro Frank, wasn't sure it it was the same Frank S I know;
I would ask that you edit out the line about my having asite, and then I will edit out this mention also, not here to solicit, it's just that there are so few damned opinioons on boxing/betting that I surf a bit more than I'd like to these days;

it was a tricky question or two to pose, w/out seemimg like a s*it-stirrer, hope I did so in a professional manner to garner opinions that differ from my own, such as yours;

the problem I have found with posting lines that are not general is you will always get guys saying "I got the Mavs -1" when there are 3's all over (and my fav reply to this when another poster calls BS on them - "I got it from my local guy!");
and to let one post in that manner you have to let all, one of the reasons why I suggest a standard book to use current lines at the time of the of post method, it keeps the playing field level;

no right or wrong, not fact, just opinion....

ps - you going to Castillo/Corrales? I may be there.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Sonny

I try to avoid pulling plays, and it doesn't happen very often, but when I get late inside info or the weigh-ins don't go as planned sometimes I have to bail on a play.

Last week I posted a play on Cintron at +109, but as the weekend grew near I started hearing more and more about Cintron's hand not being completely healed. Knowing Cintron would have to be 100% to beat Margarito, I decided to pull the play. At that time, Marg was around -110, I posted a reply letting everyone know I was pulling it and explained why. Since the line was basically even and no juice was lost, I didn't need to adjust my totals.

I posted a play on the Castillo-Corrales under 9.5 +110 a few weeks ago and put it in my future bets. Its something I do on wagers I have already placed but don't go off untill after the current week. I do this to let others know what I'm playing down the road so they can get a price close to mine instead of waiting to post it the week of the fight and making others play it at the adjusted price. Anyway, when I pulled the Corr-Cast under +110, the over was -115 so it wasn't necessary to adjust totals.

I played the Corr-Cast inside distance props as soon as they opened and caught 5dimes sleeping giving me "fight won't go distance" at -120. By the time I got around to posting the plays, 5dimes had either caught the mistake or got bought down already. There's nothing I can do about lines changing before my followers get to them.

I do this for two reasons...
1) I'm building a reputation that will help me in the future.
2) I love doing it, and right now I don't have a website so I post my plays here

My record consists of the plays I have posted at the time the fights go off. Its the record of my final plays for the weekend and thats it. If you don't like it, don't follow my plays.

Like I said, I try to avoid pulling plays but sometimes I have to. Usually theres not a big enough difference in lines to worry about the juice, but in the future if juice is lost on a pulled play I will adjust my totals accordingly, just for you.

I usually post my plays the same day the lines come out so my followers can get close to the same number. If they don't look at my plays untill later, its not my fault that the line has moved on them. And if late info or weigh-ins change my opinion, I always make note of the change. I have said many times that my card is subject to change and to check back late in the week to make sure.

I find it humorous that not once has any of my followers complained about me pulling plays or posting plays that the lines have moved on. So far you are the only one. My followers are probably very happy that I'm still posting plays here and they are fine with the money I win them every week despite the occasional pulled play or line move.

Btw, if its my record, why would I post anything but the number I played it at?

bl

 

[frank s.]

Yea, we plan to go to the fight Sonny. Have to wheel and deal with the scalps, but we'll give it a shot. If I played in town more they might comp me, but
asking some of the books to post boxing lines is like pulling teeth. Take care.

 

[RexBudler]

Sonny you sound like a crybaby for getting your panties in a bunch about his pulled play

 

[amhlilhaus]

you see shenanegans (sp?) on internet posts as far as records everywhere. I never edit a post when I put up a pick, I don't post here much yet because we're usually in agreement and that's personal opinion. following box's picks he edits but doesn't change plays if he has a bad week, and any changes he puts in the threads so if he buys back a play from time to time and you choose to follow his plays, he will win you much more than an occasional pull, and if the bottom line is making money then you don't stop following because he lost a play, or pulled one. You stay the course and cash week in and week out.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

For the record...

For the record...

I just went through all of my 2005 threads and found that not one play was pulled untill last week.

Thats right, out of 14 threads and hundreds of plays, not one play was pulled.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

BTW

BTW

I work very hard to stay ahead of the game and I try to cap every fight before the lines come out. Since I know when the lines come out, I usually get the opener on most of my plays. To be fair, I try to post all of my plays right after I get my money down, you can ask anyone.

The Castillo-Corrales props came out a couple of weeks ago and since the fight didn't go off that week, I didn't post it in that weeks thread. Instead I posted it in my futures that night but by the next morning the lines had already moved. There's nothing I can do about that.

Like I said before, on the Cintron play the lines were even so it didn't matter. In this case the under was +110 and the over was -115 when I pulled it, so its no big deal.

I didn't change my mind, I still like the under 9.5 at +110 but I found a better play so I nailed it and posted it. I can't help it that the lines moved so fast. If my tailers want to get my prices all they have to do is check in here Monday and Tuesday evenings. If they chose to wait untill the weekend thats fine, but I'm not adjusting my line. Its my record, not theirs.

 

[Dan Bernadino]

I was coming on to congratulate bl on another excellent weekend but it looks like I've joined in the middle of a debate. I'm only a recently joined member but really, for anybody who is going to tail somebody's picks, it's still your decision and responsibility to do so.
As Box's picks are given for free (let's not forget) where's the problem ?
I feel he's already explained the situation quite satisfactorily, honestly.
Anyway, I just want to say, thanks again to Box for freely providing analysis and picks, I'm assuming it takes a fair bit of time and effort to post week in and week out and I, for one, greatly appreciate the effort that is being put in.
Outsatnding analysis and profits yet again.
Many thanks.

 

[gardenweasel]

nobody actually has to justify anything they do here....follow or don`t...if the style offends,so be it.....we can all move along....

i will say this...box,when you pull a posted play,might be a good idea to clarify whether you are buying out or whether you are just pulling the play for records purposes....

sonny is right in that some guys will play your picks...guys that don`t follow the game as closely as some of us...and it may be confusing for them.....if they actually spent money on someone`s say so.....might be a good idea to be clear so they know whether to get off a play or hang with it......

just a suggestion....

it`s a free forum.....play at your own risk....follow at your own risk.....

as reagan said,trust but verify.......lol

 

[frank s.]

Well said GW; some guys don't follow the action as closley and don't realize this can get a tad complex and confusing. Personally, I would really appreciate if as fight time nears, if a poster should acquire information crucial to making the smartest play, he would divulge same. I will glady buy off a wager. I did it with Ruiz, as Killer Instinct posted and it just influenced me enough to jump ship. It payed off.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

OK

Next time I pull a play, I will be more specific.

On the Cintron play, I explained the reason for pulling it and made it pretty obvious that I was getting off the play personally.

On the Cast-Corr under play, Frank noticed the change as soon as I posted my plays this week, I didn't even have a chance to explain. To be honest I was in my thread to explain the change when I saw Frank asking about it, he beat me to it. As far as the play I pulled, I still like the under 9.5 at +110 and I'm letting it ride personally.

Like I said before, I try to avoid pulling plays, and untill last week I didn't pull any plays this year. I explained Cintron and was getting ready to explain Cast-Corr when I was asked about it.

I will try to run a tighter ship in the future, if or when I pull another play it will be fully explained and if there is juice lost it will come out of my totals.

My bad guys

 

[gardenweasel]

f-ck the juice......i just mentioned it to save the uninformed some grief.....

just keep winning...that`s our goal....

even if the record wasn`t posted,it`s obvious that you win much more than you lose....

waiting for some peripheral lines to post for this weekend...

 

[frank s.]

Hey box, I asked because I wanted to make sure we were on the same page. If you weren't sure about the wager and wanted to cut it loose, I would take a look at that, as I may have concurred. Peace brother and your efforts are appreciated.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Let's clarify a few things.
First, it is suggested above that I placed a wager on a bet I tailed here and had a problem because the bet was later pulled.
I tail no one, my boxing capping/rep stands on its' own, as both Frank, Odessa or many of my readers/followers can verify.
I search the net for info from other cappers I respect, such as boxlock, then add their opinions to my own, weigh everything and then wager. I do not blindly tail. I had no wager on the round prop, just asked a question as to accounting.
My question was presented in a professional manner, not an attack. It was an isolated play I inquired about and did not suggest, or mean to imply, it was a regular practice so the look back you did on all your 2005 play was not necessary, at least in reply to me.

The unasked question, which I gathered from your posting style, is "are you using MJ's to give free picks that you intend to charge for later, are you building a customer base for a service or site you intend to start?"
My hunch seems to be correct, unless I misread your reply " I'm building a reputation that will help me in the future."
My point is this - if you are intending to start a website or service I assume it is your first and is new to you. I have been involved in the building of 3 websites, successfully, and have experience also in the area of start up services.

When/if you start charging for picks experience tells me you will find 3 things different from doing as you do here, for free:
1 - accounting practices will come under tighter scrutiny, meaning
a)recommended plays that are pulled will have to be accounted for with juice loist for buying off, unless you plan on being one of those scamdicappers who advertise 'I win 90% of my plays!"
Your professionalism in posting style tells me you are not one of them, and your obvious 'capping talent for boxing tells me this is not necessary.
and...
b) though you say now that :
"There's nothing I can do about lines changing before my followers get to them"
when/if you start to charge for your picks, selling plays that you got early $'s on yet many of your paying followers are unable to play will cause problems.

2 - you will find that those who jump to defend you at their misconceived impressison of your being attacked (due to the free picks you give them) will become the ones attacking you if you do not believe #1 as I stated above when you start charging them.

3 - when players add the cost of a service, obviously, the win % comes under tighter scrutiny, and cost has to be factored into overall units won; the success of a service is based on it's win % and cost to provide the same;

Long winded, sorry, what can I say, I'm a writer.
In closing, no attack was meant, sorry if it was taken that way. I DO use my column and the 'net to attack scamdicappers and protect bettors, but I think I made it clear above that that is not what I am doing when I stopped by here. Your opinion is valued, and one of 4-5 that I seek.
Congrats on another winning week ,and solid season, thanks,
Sonny