Boxing 5/20 - 5/21

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +19.1 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 6-1 +4.7
.5 unit plays: 33-16 +1.55
Dogs: 35-24 +10.85


5/20
Bell over Brown -320 1/2 unit (winner)

Dog
Andrade over Morales +160...lay .25 to win .4 (winner)

5/21
Baldomir-Rodriguez over 11.5 -185...lay .45 to win .25 (winner)


Golata over Brewster -250 1/2 unit (loser)

Golata-Brewster over 7.5 -110 1 unit (loser)


gl bl

 

[frank s.]

Bell may take Brown but I don't lay more than 3-1, so no play for me. I am liking Krasniqi also, but the goof has been in tough in the past. If your opinion on the Golota bout is a strong one, I may run with that one. The line on the under in the Mayweather-Gatti is dropping. Later.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

frank
I really like the Golata-Brewster over, its a little juicier now but I would gladly play it -124 or -135.

Brewster has one of the best chins in boxing
I'm sure you remember the severe beating Brewster took for five rounds before Wladimir collapsed from exhaustion. After that fluke win Brew then got his ass kicked by Meehan for 12 rounds but was given the DK decision for yet another fluke win. And now he faces one of the most skilled hws in the division, unfortunalty for Brew, Golata is also a King fighter.

Brewsters power is overrated, he couldn't stop Meehan and Rahman finished him in 4 rounds. He also has gone the distance with Glass Jaw Etienne, Charles Shufford, Richard Mason, Garing Lane, and John Kiser. He managed to slip by the last 3, but he lost lopsided UD's to Etienne and Shufford. Thats absolutely pathetic.

Golata on the other hand just beat Chris Byrd and John Ruiz, he got screwed with a draw against Byrd and deserved at least a draw against Ruiz imo. Golata is at the top of the division and is fighting pretty good right now. Brewster is a C class fighter who was dominated by B class fighters a few years ago and was given two fluke wins to get where he is now. He got the sh*t beat out him in both of his big wins and he's about to take another wooping this weekend. This time the King factor won't help.

This fight is in Golata's adopted home town of Chicago, the crowd will be full of Golata fans.

Anyway

The over is the most solid play here, Golata's not going anywhere, and IF Brewster goes, it will be after the 7.5 rounds, imo.

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

""""This fight is in Golata's adopted home town of Chicago, the crowd will be full of Golata fans."""

are you saying that the arena will be full of polocks?....lol

insert polock joke here...

"" Two Poles were walking down the street when they spot a dog licking its balls.... One Pole looks at the other and says,"Boy I wish I could do that!"...... The other Pole turned to his friend and says " You better pet him first, he looks kind of mean".""""

just kidding,my polish goombahs....

 

[frank s.]

Yea, well they have a Polish buffet here in Vegas where you bring your own food. I think I'll parlay the Golota over and the Bell to win play. Only way to bring down the number on Bell.

 

[Spreadking]

Bell by kayo I think would be a good play

I think Robert Daniels had Brown winded late in their fight last summer. Bell will put on the pressure and Brown gets tired late.
A straight up win is a lot safer, but for those of you who don't like to bet -300.

 

[gardenweasel]

also,brown just flat out doesn`t have the power to keep the elite cruisers off him....the guys that punch with bad intentions.....that`s probably why he was stopped in the 8th by both braithwaite and mormeck.....

actually,jirov wore him down also...bell is almost at the braithwaite/mormeck level.....maybe not quite....but,take a look at his ledger...he`s fought alot of "good" fighters....not walkovers...

brown`s a solid technician....just can`t sustain for 12 vs guys that can put real hurt on him......bell can do that...

it`s ashamed,because brown can fight a bit.....

just looks like he`ll always fall below the tip top guys.....

kind of like alvaro "yaqui" lopez back in the 70`s/80`s....he was hell for awhile in a bout.... just didn`t quite have enough late power and faded..was very seldom in a bad fight.......he could fight....one of my oldtime faves as a young feller`......

my first inclination was to like krasniqi....a little....but,the more i thought about it,the colder my feet got....

"goofi"(my god, why?),does have some power....and of course he`s enormous.....he`s got some talent...enough talent to make some noise in this horrible heavyweight era...

kras couldn`t quite do enough to get the nod over hoffman...who from all reports,wouldn`t be all that much in the states...not a puncher....despite his size...

but,"goofi"does carry some power.....and has goossen in his corner...and this may be his last shot at doing something...i expect goossen to have him ready....i don`t expect to see the "lazy" whitaker...that`s his modus operandi...lack of intensity and sloth...

not saying that kras isn`t the way to go..not trying to dissuade anybody......it`s just not a fight i`d really pull the rubberband off for....

i think "goofi"(that`s three times)has a shot....i think he can hurt krasniqi,if krasniqi gets careless...

i hear the winner becomes the automatic mandatory for "pluto".... :yup

hoping to hear some more from some foreign guys.....hopefully,they`ll be better than they were for calzaghe/veit(ouch)...

 

[frank s.]

GW; my thoughts exactly on the goofi thing. I WANT to bet Krasniqi, but I'm not loving it. Maybe I'll run with the King on the KO prop.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Gotta love my man gw

I agree that Bell by ko is a very solid play, if I didn't already have Bell straight and parlayed, I would play that prop for sure.


'99 tko 10 Jirov

'00 tko 8 Baithwaite

'02 tko 8 Mormeck

'05 ____ Bell

You fill in the blank


This one looks easy to me
In Browns last 15 wins, 8 have come by decision against mediocre competition. In the cruiserweight division that means he has no power and Bell has a good chin. Brown is in trouble here as Bell is obviously a big puncher.

This is for the vacant IBF title, yes Brown wants it as bad as Bell, but the extra motivation favors the bigger puncher imo. Bell knows Brown can be hurt and has been hurt by 3 of the other top 4 cruisers. With the title on the line Bell will not mess around here. And Brown is too old to break the pattern above...imo.


gl bl

 

[badjab]

Box,
re: Brewster-Golota over 7.5

I'm thinking that the Golota fight is more likely to resemble a bar brawl more than a boxing match. Brewster has to know that he is not going to out jab the big man and has indicated that he plans to come out swinging. Couple that with the fact that Golota is easily thrown off his game when hit squarely in the face (Tyson, Lewis). Not saying that Brewster has enough to get the job done, but going toe to toe might be his only shot.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

There is a huge difference between getting hit by Tyson or Lewis, and getting hit by Brewster.

If Etienne, Shufford, Mason, Lane, and Kiser can take Brewster's power, Golata has absolutely nothing to worry about. Etienne has one of the weakest chins in the hw division, not only did he go the distance with Brewster, he won a lopsided UD over him.

If Golata can take Ruiz' best shots he can easily handle Brewster's power. Like I said before, Brewster's power is overrated and most of his ko's were against mediocre competition.

Brewster says he plans to come out swinging, but I'll believe it when I see it. The guy has always had a very low work rate in the ring. Even if he does come out swinging, I don't think he'll be effective and I don't think it will matter. I don't see either guy going anywhere untill late in the fight, if at all.

gl bl

 

[Flipper13]

I played the over on this one too...Curious though how you guys grade Brewster's chin...Also, anyone hear of what kind of shape either of these chaps are in?

thanks in advance

 

[snoopol]

is anyone going to Golota-Brewster fight???

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

4/21
Baldomir-Rodriguez over 11.5 -185...lay .45 to win .25

gl bl

 

[Flipper13]

I just played a little on Baldomir via decision @ +153 (as i like the value) and some on Bell inside the distance @-149.

BL, hope you don't mind me posting in your thread...If so, just say the word, and I won't anymore.

GL2U all.

 

[frank s.]

I bet Rodriquez +185.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Flipper
You can post in my thread anytime, no hard feelings

 

[frank s.]

Played Golota-245, the over 7.5, Bell inside the distance so far.

 

[Flipper13]

Frank, I am surprised you got on Golata -245...Locally -220 was available today.

Thanks Box,

I know we have different opinions on that particular subject but other than that, your word is one of the ones I always try to weigh into for my boxing wagers...

If you ever make it to Vegas, I would sure love to meet you and Frank (one of these days)...

I have met Fletcher before and he is a pretty cool dude.

 

[frank s.]

I was in a few books and they did'nt have a line up yesterday. That sucks, but it happens. I was supposed to hook up with fletch, but alas, it did'nt pan out. We all live 15-20 minutes from each other and we will most likely see Elvis before we see each other! If boxie comes to town we can take him to the Western for some high class Vegas action.