Collazo +400 is basically a value play, I noticed Bet365 had that big # while the other books were +300 or so.
As posted, I'm only playing it to win 1/2 unit so given the odds its hardly risking anything. Its a long shot bet but here's why I think it could win...
Collazo has always fought at 147, Hatton is stepping up from 140 for the first time even though he admits he can make 140 easily. So he's stepping out of his natural weight and fighting a slick, skilled, southpaw who is 3" taller and 7" longer. Collazo is also a King fighter, that always helps. If he's in excellent shape and can keep up the lateral movement for 12 rounds (like Freitas did to Corrales for 8 rounds) he could make it very difficult for Hatton to get inside. This is Hatton's first fight in the US, you never know how that will effect him, esp combined with the new weight and the southpaw opponent.
However
Hatton is a wildman who comes forward constantly throwing big shots to the head and to the body, every now and then Collazo's back will hit the ropes and he will have to trade. Hatton may be the smaller guy, but he's the stronger of the two and he hits harder than Collazo.
Inside...big advantage for Hatton
Outside...big advantage for Collazo
The question is...how long can Collazo keep Hatton off him, and can he take the heat when its time to trade
There's two X factors here...
1) Hatton is promoted by Fight Acadamy and Banner promotions, they are promoting this event and will be signing the checks, not Don King. As was discussed two weeks ago, Banner promotions has a history of getting what they want. For example Freitas is a Banner guy and he got all the close rounds against Raheem.
This could be a big advantage for Hatton
2) Hatton has a long history of cutting in fights, usually early. I layed the heavy wood on Ricky (-700) against that joke Maussa. I think it was the first round that I started sh*tting bricks when a Maussa haymaker opened up a cut over Hatton's eye. Luckily they got it under control and Hatton sealed the deal, but I sure didn't like my odds when the blood started to flow. Anyway, Collazo is a southpaw which increases the odds of a headbutt. Collazo also throws quik, sharp punches, very accurate, it wouldn't surprise me if he opened a cut early by targeting the scar tissue.
In summary...
I think you did a wise thing in parlaying Hatton, hopefully you're getting close to even money, in that case...let it ride.
I wouldn't recommend a straight bet on Hatton...obviously
gl bl