Tarver-Hopkins
Tarver-Hopkins
............Age...Height...Reach...Stance...Weight
Tarver.....37......6'2"......75......Left.......175
Hopkins...41......6'1"......75.....Right.......160
Age...Tarver is a young 37 having only fought 27 professional fights in 9 years, most of the big ones were against light punchers...Jones, Harding, Johnson...fought each of them twice and Griffen once, not much punishment taken in any of those fights. Hopkins is an old 41 with 52 pro fights in 18 years, has fought plenty of big punchers...Taylor (twice), Echols (twice), Trinidad, Eastman...much more punishment taken by Hopkins over the years.
Height and Reach are about the same with a slight advantage to Tarver who's a little taller and longer.
Stance...Tarver shoots from the southpaw stance which gives him another advantage. Hopkins has fought several southpaws and has done well against them, BUT he looked horrible against R. Allen in their last fight. And Allen is only a 5'9" lefty.
Power...Tarver is one of the biggest punchers at 175, his punch will definitly hurt a guy coming up from 160 no matter how good his chin is. Hopkins was never a big puncher at 160, most of his ko's were late in the fight and he hasn't been stopping anyone lately, DLH was too small and hurt by a body shot. The extra muscle in this fight will make Hopkins stronger, but it won't make him hit harder, punching power is natural. Tarver can hurt Hopkins at any point of the fight, Hopkins can only hurt Tarver if he fades late.
Weight...Hopkins is basically a tall light-middle who's been fighting at middleweight his entire career. Don't believe me? He weighed in at 157 against Trinidad in 2001 and he weighed 156 against DLH in 2004...at 39 years old. So its fair to say that if Hopkins comes in at 175, he'll have gained almost 20 pounds of excess weight. Tarver on the other hand has always fought at 175 and has the frame to be a legit cruiserweight, he will obviously be the much bigger guy AND he'll be more comfortable at the weight. I think Hopkins would be wise not to go all the way up to 175, too many extra pounds, it will effect his speed and stamina for sure, esp at 41 years old.
Stamina...Tarver has been known to fade late in his fights, but always seems to finish. He will have to be completely exhausted for Hopkins to stop hiim, but thats not out of the question. As we all know, Tarver bulked up to 210 for the Rocky movie, gaining and then taking off 35 pounds in less than 6 months could be a factor late in this fight. Buddy McGirt says Tarver didn't do any lifting to gain the weight, just eating. He claims that since it was all fat, it was very easy to lose and hasn't bothered Tarver's training. Buddy said Tarver was at 179 two weeks out, and 176 one week out, still eating 3 times a day.
Hopkins had excellent stamina at 160, he stays very calm in the ring and doesn't waste many punches. However, he might have stamina issues in this fight for reasons already stated. Those 41 year old legs aren't used to carrying 15 extra pounds for 12 rounds, and those thin old arms aren't used to being full of muscle. Its one thing for a young fighter to gain weight and take on a bigger guy, its a whole different story when an old man gains alot of weight to fight a younger stronger fighter.
Strategy...Tarver claims he will stop Hopkins inside 5 rounds. I don't think he'll try to back those words up once the fight starts, but I do think he'll be agressive early as Hop is a slow starter. This strategy combined with the weight-loss could make Tarver relive his history of fading late in fights. Hopkins will most likely take the 1st half of the fight off, trying to take Tarver into the late rounds. It's a good strategy that might just work, but I think Hopkins will be tired himself after 9 rounds due to carrying the extra weight.
My thoughts...Can Hopkins really do more against Tarver than Glen Johnson did? Will he throw more punches...No. Will he hit harder...No. Will he be more aggresive...No. Hop will be smarter and quicker than Johnson, but will he be smarter and quicker than Roy Jones...No. Hopkins hasn't looked good in a long time, since his last fight with Allen it seems like he can't get off like he used to. He lost the first fight with Taylor b/c he didn't throw enough punches and waited too long to turn it up. Knowing what he had to do in the rematch he still wasn't busy enough early in the fight and was beat to the punch in the second half. Imo Taylor is not that good. DLH was beating Hop to the punch for the 1st half of the fight, before Hopkins' size took over. Hopkins best wins were against Trinidad and DLH, both were 147 lb. fighters moving up in weight.
Location...Atlantic City slightly favors Hopkins who is an East coast guy from Phili, not too far away.
Promotion...Joe DeGuardia is Tarver's promoter and is hosting this event, advantage Tarver
Trinkets...Tarver holds the belts, so Hopkins will have to take them away. Won't be easy with that very low workrate of his.
gl bl
