Boxing 6/8 - 6/9

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +11.35 units
2 units: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit: 1-0 +1.0
1/2 unit: 36-13 +4.70
Dogs: 29-34 +3.8
LT's: 1-9 -0.15


6/8

Segura over Reyes -200...lay 2.0 to win 1 unit (winner)


6/9 Dog

Judah over Cotto +350...lay .20 to win .70 (loser)


Pending Parlay

Tackie-Hernandez Over 9.5 -340 (winner) / Malignaggi-N'dou Over 11.5 -350 (6/16)...lay .45 to win .30


More to come

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Futures

6/16 Malignaggi over N'Dou -120...lay .60 to win .50

6/16 Malignaggi-N'Dou Over 11.5 -330...lay 1.65 to win .50

6/16 McCall over Sam +220...lay .25 to win .55

6/23 Castillo over Hatton +140...lay .35 to win .50

7/7 Klitschko over Brewster -365...lay 1.8 to win .50

7/14 Gomez over Gatti +185...lay .30 to win .55


Note: I'll probably scalp the Malignaggi play, got him at -120 and now N'dou is +210, gotta take the free cash

gl bl

 

[s_dooley24]

Any chance you could give your thoughts or a quick write up possibly on Juddah-Cotto?

Also, I have tied Tarver into a couple parlays for the last leg. Anything I should worry about?

 

[MayorgaFan]

Also, I have tied Tarver into a couple parlays for the last leg. Anything I should worry about?

No worries, the guy sucks. Absolute garbage. He's slow and has a shit chin. Tarver is old but this is a ridiculously easy tune up fight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Segura over Reyes -200...lay 2.0 to win 1 unit


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Any chance you could give your thoughts or a quick write up possibly on Juddah-Cotto?

Also, I have tied Tarver into a couple parlays for the last leg. Anything I should worry about?

I agree with MF, Muriqi is not on the same level


Judah +350 is a value play, line was way too high as its now down to +250. I could scalp it off but I won't and here's why...

Cotto was severely hurt by Corley and Torres not long ago. Corely is a southpaw like Judah, and Judah is much faster and hits much harder than Corley. Cotto is very skilled, technically sound, hits hard, great body puncher...but his handspeed is not even close to Judah's and Zab has better footwork. Cotto is a methodical stalker who keeps coming forward, but his defense is not good. Judah's punches are extremely sharp and accurate, and his straight left hand is a killer.


I still think that physically Judah is p4p one of the best in the game, its his head that loses fights.
Judah easily won the first half of the Mayweather fight before running out of gas late. He hit Mayweather with some big straight left hands that had Floyd stunned/hurt several times. Zab's the only one who has consistently landed clean shots against Mayweather's defense. Castillo gave Floyd a good fight, but he wasn't landing big shots like Judah did in the first half of the fight. DLH didn't come close to landing big shots the way Zab did.

Anyway, Zab was able to land on Floyd like no one else has b/c of his handspeed. Floyds instincts on defense are unbelievable, but Zab's straight left hand was quicker, and you could see it on Floyd's face every time he got tagged.

However, Zab is a front-runner and he will lose his handspeed and footwork as the fight goes along, esp if Cotto is able to land his big body shots. So I think Judah has to get it done in the first 6 to 8 rounds. I don't think Zab will be consistent enough to win a decision here, but its possible. I think Zab knows what he's getting into and will go for the early ko. Whether he gets it done or not I don't know, but I'll take the +350 and see what happens. Either way it should be a great fight.


gl bl

 

[s_dooley24]

So if I decided to lay off some and hedge,

Will Z. Judah win by K.O., T.K.O. or D.Q?
09:00 PM 749 Yes +556

Is the way to go?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Without knowing your situation...I'm not sure

Although its not likely, I wouldn't be surprised if Judah won a close decision. This fight is in NY...Judah's back yard


gl bl

 

[The Sponge]

Without knowing your situation...I'm not sure

Although its not likely, I wouldn't be surprised if Judah won a close decision. This fight is in NY...Judah's back yard


gl bl

Why do i think if i take Judah we both are gonna get kicked in the nuts because he does something stupid? I loved him from the get go but now i just have doubts. Who knows which one shows up? this is one i could load up on but you just can't trust this kid.

 

[s_dooley24]

Without knowing your situation...I'm not sure

Although its not likely, I wouldn't be surprised if Judah won a close decision. This fight is in NY...Judah's back yard


gl bl

I have Cotto in the back end of two parlays

one is like -200 (1225/604) and other is like -110 (340/306)

Thinking maybe Judah on the KO prop 200/1100...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Looks like you have odds of around -165 or so...

To be honest, I don't know what to tell you, I didn't get you into this situation but now you want me to get you out of it...lol

I'm just playin' with ya dools...the safest thing to do would be grab some of Judah at +250. Just enough to lower your odds and put the risk amount closer to what you're prepared to lose if Judah gets it done. I know the ko prop pays much better but I'd hate to see you lose it all if Judah takes the early rounds and somehow makes it to the cards. Not on my watch my friend.

I can't tell you what to do here. Cotto will probably weather the early storm and win the fight, but I like the value in Judah at +350. Thats all I can tell ya cheif

gl bl

 

[armageto]

Without knowing your situation...I'm not sure

Although its not likely, I wouldn't be surprised if Judah won a close decision. This fight is in NY...Judah's back yard


gl bl

Not to go against you, but I think the Judah KO prop will serve him better. IMO, if this fight gets past 6 or 7 rounds, Judah is a goner. I can't see him lasting the distance. Also, Top Rank is promoting the fight. So, an edge in a close fight would go to all of their fighters on the card: Cotto,Soto, Thompson, J.C.C. Jr. That's just the way I'm looking at it, could be wrong. If Judah was going to win a close won just because he was in NY, he should have beaten Baldomir. Hell, he even had his promoter doing the show. Cotto will have more fan support there than Judah will, IMO. We in NY have given up on Zab like most have.....


On a side note, is anyone else feeling Thompson (-130) over Foreman on this card? I think Thompson's faced much better opponents in the ring, has the promotion, and hits harder than his counterpart. It's now or never for the messinger......

 

[s_dooley24]

Thanks guys I think I'm going to lay off 200 on the i-t-d prop which will cover most of the first wager for me. Thanks for the insight.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Not to go against you, but I think the Judah KO prop will serve him better. IMO, if this fight gets past 6 or 7 rounds, Judah is a goner. I can't see him lasting the distance. Also, Top Rank is promoting the fight. So, an edge in a close fight would go to all of their fighters on the card: Cotto,Soto, Thompson, J.C.C. Jr. That's just the way I'm looking at it, could be wrong. If Judah was going to win a close won just because he was in NY, he should have beaten Baldomir. Hell, he even had his promoter doing the show. Cotto will have more fan support there than Judah will, IMO. We in NY have given up on Zab like most have.....

I believe I started by saying..."Although its not likely..."

I'm not saying Judah will win a close one just b/c they are in NY, I'm just saying the homefield advantage will help Zab more than it will hurt him. Obviously he has a better chance of winning in NY than anywhere else in the world.

My point is that, although its not likely, its possible that Zab uses his speed advantage and footwork to pull off a close decision here. In that case dooley would lose all 3 bets, and I wouldn't recommend that to anyone.


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Geto

I agree that Thompson should get it done for all the reason's you stated, and the Top Rank promotion is always something to consider. Their fighters will definitly have the juice here. But Foreman is also from NY and he's a Tommy Brooks fighter so I'm a little hesitant. I might just throw Thompson into a parlay.

Either way, I hope you hit it, those are very nice odds you got. Line must've moved fast on that one, good catch.

gl bl

 

[punchmaster]

The Messenger

The Messenger

On a side note, is anyone else feeling Thompson (-130) over Foreman on this card? I think Thompson's faced much better opponents in the ring, has the promotion, and hits harder than his counterpart. It's now or never for the messinger......

I have to agree with you on Thompson. Foreman is a skilled boxer but boy is he afraid to get hit and he could make this fight very ugly by being on his bicycle. Thompson is the first opponent that Foreman's faced with equal boxing skills and your right- he hits much harder, so I was okay grabbing "The Messenger" at -120 when it first come out.

 

[punchmaster]

Weigh in and the Soto under

Weigh in and the Soto under

I think one of the best bets this weekend is Under 8.5 on Soto fight- he's in a different class than BPac, and will only take him 3 rounds to figure the southpaw out if that and then take him out rounds 4-6, with 2 rounds of cushion. Large on that one.

I was suprised Judah was larger than Cotto upper body at weigh in. I like the judah KO props rounds 1-3 to offset a Soto -Cotto parlay.
+8000 round 1, +6000 2, +5500 3.

 

[gardenweasel]

i may take a flyer on bailey inside the distance at +almost 900.....and ngoudou by decision was hoding at roughly even money when i got it.....


castillo was coming up in weight...and he doesn`t have bailey`s "sudden" power....i doubt that it happens,but at those odds?.....wtf...ngoudou by decision probably cashes...


segura/tarver inside the distance/cotto/soto under 8.5....all excellent parlay material...

with a dog nod to zab....i also think that zab inside the distance has possiblities as a throwaway........

but lord,if corley and the south american that arnaoutis fought can put cotto on queer street,so can zab....

picking cotto...but giving zab a shot at a shocking stoppage...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I did something similar, took the Bailey inside distance +920 (which is still available now) and parlayed Ngoudjo -325 with Klitschko -365, will turn a profit either way

Also have a small personal play on the Soto Under 8.5 -160, not recommending it though. Still thinking about the Judah-Cotto Under 9.5 at close to even, these guys are coming to bang early and neither can take the others best shot imo. Just a small play if I back it at all

Good to see you back in the game

gl bl

 

[s_dooley24]

Nice call on Segura tailed you on it. A little embarassed to say that I watched the fight on telemundo and tried to put closed captioning on hoping it would give me english subtitles. No dice on the cc, but i'll take a 90 sec victory