Boxing 7/12 - 7/16

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +17.5 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2.0
1 unit plays: 8-2 +5.25
.5 unit plays: 50-24 -1.15
Dogs: 48-41 +11.4


7/12
Quintana-Campos under 6.5 -115...lay .25 to win .2 (winner)

7/14
Ouma-Karmazin over 11.5 -130...lay .4 to win .3 (winner)
Dog
Ouma by decision +105...lay .25 (loser)

7/15
Mora over Arroyo -140...lay .7 to win .5 (winner)


7/16
Larios-McCullough over 11.5 -245...lay 1.8 to win .75 (loser)

McCollough +18 points -115...lay .3 to win .25 (loser)

Parlays

Montiel -1250 / Haussler-Sanavia over 11.5 -360...lay .5 to win .2 (winner)

Montiel -1250 / Forrest -600...lay 1 to win .25 (winner)

Dogs

Magee-Tsypko over 10.5 +115...lay .3 to win .35 (winner)

Montiel-Briceno under 4.5 +175...lay .2 to win .35 (loser)

Hopkins by 12 round decision +150...lay .2 to win .3 (loser)

Hopkins wins inside distance +440...lay .1 to win .45 (loser)


gl bl

 

[rrc]

BOX...the Larios/McCullough over is one of the bigger plays of yours that I've seen in the past several months with you laying 1.8 units. I take it that size wager is major for you seeing as you've had only one 2 unit play all year. Is that correct? Thanks for all your hard work and the fact that you share your expertise.

 

[sen]

agree with box but taking Larios for 12rnd Dec Win.

Box, what do you think of Karmazin? Good odds (+400 5dimes, was +440 just yesterday I think). Ouma slightly ahead to win by UD, but Karmazin has a chance with KO/TKO. All the talk of Ouma's background might have him overated imo.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

rrc

When I post a play as 1/2 unit...1 unit...or 2 units, its always to win that amount. For example, I have Mora -140 posted above as a half unit play, so I'm laying .7 to win .5

The Larios-McCollough over is a 3/4 unit play, laying 1.8 to win .75



I use a small scale (.5 , 1 , 1.5 , 2) because it makes more sence to me than posting 5, 10, 15 and 20 unit plays.

My system is based on a 1 unit play, which to me is a very solid play. A 1/4 unit is a small bet, half unit is an average bet, 1.5 units is a large bet, and 2 units or more is a best bet.


Hope this helps, let me know if you have any more questions.

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Larios-McCollough

Larios-McCollough

Gotta like the over here

Larios has gone the distance in his last 5 fights and 7 of his last 9.

McCollough has never been stopped and has gone the distance with Morales, Hamed, Harrison, and obviously Larios in his last fight. Harrison is strong, large, and hardhitting at 126, McCollough took a beating but kept on fighting. Larios at 122 is smaller than Harrison and doesn't hit near as hard.

Larios was stopped by Sanchez and Vasquez but that was 7 and 8 years ago and he has gone the distance with plenty of decent punchers since then. No worries there b/c...

McCollough doesn't have much power, esp at this stage of his career. He has stopped some scrubs but his biggest ko was against Johnny Bredahl at 118 and that was 10 years ago. No impressive ko's since then.

This will be another high action fight with very little defence just like the first one. But these guys are extremely tough and history has a way of repeating itself.

The Barrera-Morales and Ward-Gatti trilogies were as brutal as it gets. But despite the brilliant display of powerpunching and complete lack of defense, all 6 fights went the distance b/c of the fighters involved. It should be no different in this rematch.


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

sen

gl on Larios by 12 rd decision, considering his promotional advantage if it goes the distance he will probably win regardless of who deserves it. The first fight was very close imo, but the judges had Larios 118-110 twice and 117-111. Can't see anything changing this time around.


I would never talk anyone out of betting a +400 dog in boxing, but IMO his only chance to win is by stoppage. Not just b/c of Ouma's style and extremely high work rate, but b/c Ouma just signed with Golden Boy Promotions who is hosting this event.

Yes, the line on Karmazin is dropping, but its just now getting back down to where it opened. The early money all went to Ouma.

I'll get back to you on this one


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

although it opened lower,the over`s been sitting on -270 for awhile...

and i thought mccullough was pretty competitive in the first go-round....

unless he pulls a ray oliveira,i doubt that mccullough`s going amywhere...barring a cut...

i think that at these weights...122/126,the 4 pounds makes a huge difference...

by that i mean that scott harrison is actually big at 126....and imo,mccullough was stretching it a bit at 126....and fighting a very big 126`er in harrison...

larios isn`t an overwhelmingly poweful 122`er...his strength is his work rate....ditto mccullough....

kind of a long way around saying the over is a very logical play...if you don`t mind laying odds....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

7/12

Quintana-Campos under 6.5 -115...lay .25 to win .2


7/16 Dogs

Ouma over Karmazin by decision +105...lay .25

Magee-Tsypko over 10.5 +115...lay .3 to win .35


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Ouma-Karmazin over 11.5 -130...lay .4 to win .3

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Good Start

Good Start

Campos quit in his corner after the 6th

 

[Oddessa]

I dont cry foul 2 often, but that bout had alot of stink to it. Hard 2 bet ESPN bouts these days.

 

[sen]

Anyone know much bout a "Lee Haskins"? he's a fav around -185 but his record is pretty bad (no offense). 12-0 against mostly fighters who lose more than win. Kibiti has fought against better competition with only 2 loses. Not a bad dog imo, unless the usual hometown dec robs him.

 

[gardenweasel]

here`s a bout that`s not garnering enough news on this isde of the pond....

but,it should be as good a european fight as has been had over there....at this weight....since the days of eubanks and benn....

eastman and abraham....wish i could see this one....

was surprised at how much taller eastman looks....he`s more than an inch taller...

i took a shot at sylvester over hakkar at -112....hakkar has all the experience....but he looked soooo bad vs hopkins....he would be a b level fighter in the states...

but,sylvester`s beaten no one...


i took a shot with sylvester because hakkar is french....that`s all i needed....

my logic here is flawed...granted..

very small...a protest wager..i hate the french.....lol

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Montiel-Briceno under 4.5 +175...lay .2 win .35


Parlay

Montiel -1250 / Haussler-Sanavia over 11.5 -360...lay .5 to win .2


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Karmazin wins by 12 round UD :scared


Ouma didn't look right, rumour has it he was sick


Oh well, the over cashed

 

[gardenweasel]

i didn`t see karmazin/holmes....and to be honest,i was never crazy about ouma...i lost with phillips....phillips was just to old....and not an elite fighter..and i thought ouma lost to angel hernandez......my bad on phillips...i overestimated him a few times......

but,i was impressed with karmazin....he`s pretty well rounded...brutal hooks to the body....and some nice hooks to the temple around ouma`s right hand....

ouma seems to push his punches...karmazin had more snap on his punches than i thought he would....

looked like a big spider in there...

if castillejo beat karmazin legitimately in spain...and i heard there was some debate on that decision....maybe vargas has a tougher nut to crack than i thought...

whatever,karmazin`s no dog...there were rumors that oscar wanted no part of karmazin....maybe that was true.....the guy can fight a bit...

i bet oscar felt those left hooks to ouma`s body at ringside...lol

karmazin by decision was +933

i really didn`t know karmazin had so much snap on his punches...

another interesting face in the mix at jr. middle...this guy throws all the punches...and height....a decent work rate...

he can fight...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

gw

I noticed you're dismissing the reports that Ouma was sick this week and throwing up on Tuesday. I know fighters make excuses but I heard these rumours an hour before the fight started. It was quite obvious to me that Ouma wasn't right tonight. Karmazin is definitely a solid fighter but it came very easy for him tonight.

 

[sen]

good thing the bookies were late posting the props, so I put some money on karmazin over ouma. Now lets hope grandpa Hopkins pulls through

 

[gardenweasel]

i guess that`s possible.....i read what michael katz wrote about the throwing up....could have been illness...maybe he overtrained...or undertrained...and tried to make up ground to fast...

i see ouma much like hassim rahman....guys that get overconfident...think they`re actually better than they are...

if he was sick...and they still fought,shame on his mgmt...they must have been overconfident,also..

i know dlh` is taking gas...they just signed ouma and paid him a $400,000 bonus....lol

ouma`s good....not great..imo

still,even giving ouma the benefit of the doubt,i had him rated below the winky wright,dlh,mosely crowd...i `m saying that i was unaware of karmazin`s talent.... he`s no joke...not sure how he`d fare against the 3 i just mentioned,but,he certainly belongs in ouma`s class,imo...


there will almost surely be a rematch....it should be more competitive,i`d hope...

again...another underdog that comes out aggressively....attacking...and wins...

not sure how that scenario will play out with hopkins/taylor....

taylor needs to be "firm" early...not careless...and ease into a boxing match by keeping distance...

to much aggressiveness vs hopkins can be fatal...

i was impressed by mayorgafan`s huge bet on hopkins...i`m leaning b.hop...but,i don`t have mayorga sized stones...

this one looks like a toughie...

g.l.

 

[rrc]

Quick question...Does anyone know where Joey Oddessa opened Hopkins/Taylor...I believe it was -200ish Thanks.