Boxing 7/19 - 7/22

[BOXLOCKS]

Side note...

I put a sh*tload on McCline -160 at sportsbook when I noticed pinnacle had already moved to -178/+168 setting up an automatic scalp and hoping for further line movement on McCline. The price has bounced around and now I can...

1) take Smith +160 to break even and forget about it

2) wait and see if the late money comes in on McCline

3) take Smith by decision +260 as a hedge setting up a profit either way, but taking a big risk on a small opportunity

4) let it ride, knowing that if McCline loses, my plays on the Over and Smith by decision would most likely cash


Decisions...decisions...any suggestions from the crew?

Well I didn't have enough confidence to let my big bet on McCline -160 ride, but I knew Smith wouldn't stop him. So I went with the risky hedge playing Smith by decision +260 to cover the McCline bet and setting up a $100 profit. Yes it was very risky laying over $500 to make $100, but I was confident that Smith wouldn't stop McCline and he didn't hurt him once the entire fight, easy money on the hedge.

gl bl

 

[matt19780]

The Gatti v. Baldomir spread is still moving fast!

The Gatti v. Baldomir spread is still moving fast!

Wow, I remember just a few weeks ago when Boxlocks told us about the +17.5 spread for Baldomir and now it is at +8.5. Pretty amazing the spread started so generous.

That being said, I see Gatti winning the first half of the fight with his combinations and superior technical skills (i.e. footwork and shorter punches). Also, I see Gatti breaking his right hand again in the middle rounds and soldiering on with the crowd willing him on. Baldomir is bigger, sturdier, and hungrier, and he should win the second half of the fight. But that still won't be enough because even with Gatti being past his prime, Baldomir's boxing style is one that Gatti has seen and handled well many times in the past. Therefore, I see a close Gatti victory with scorecards reading 116-112 or 115-113.

1 unit on Baldomir +17 (placed 7/3/06)

This play had lots of value because Gatti will probably not win by more than 4 rounds and the fight just might be called early on a Gatti broken hand or a Gatti bad cut or closed eye. Gatti's face seems to start swelling about the time he's finished warming up in the dressing room before his ring entrance. No disrespect, I've been a fan of Gatti since '95 when he fought at super featherweight.

Thank you Boxlocks for the early heads up on the Gatti v. Baldomir spread at +/-17.5

Matt

 

[gardenweasel]

i read one guy say that gatti should be scheduling brain mri`s along with his 6 month dental appts......lol


3 n.j. judges,from what i`m hearing.....whew..

the gatti by decision/baldomir inside the distance plays look decent....those 10 k.o.`s for baldomir may be a little misleading...

how much bigger is baldomir,really?.....i`ve heard that gatti`s come into the ring at around 155 already....

judah just quit fighting vs baldomir...like he seemed to quit vs mayweather...
judah`s a strange bird...

tough to gauge anybody nowadays off one judah fight....although 20 in a row does tend to get your attention...

baldomir certainly has a bigger head....that thing`s bigger than sputnick!...

 

[frank s.]

Am I mistaken, or did Gatti adorn himself with yet another "skin Illustration", aka tattoo, on his abdomen? I know I said I would not raise this issue again, but he may get "O T'd" (over tattooed") and lose the fight. I say Baldomir is being overlooked and will win tonite. Not saying how, but he may surprise.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

The time is now...

The time is now...

I've been watching the points handicap line at 5dimes today waiting for another drop down to 3 or 4 points at -115...but it never happened

When you have Baldy +400 and +17.5 points -115, with Gatti now at -154 there's only one thing left to do...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding


Gatti over Baldomir -154...lay 1.55 to win 1 unit


Looking to hit a very nice middle here

With all 3 judges being from NJ, Gatti's promoter hosting the event, and the hometown crowd...it will be very hard for him to win a decision here and I'm not about to get screwed by the politics of boxing.

All of my Baldomir plays were based on value. I knew +400 was way off and it could be scalped later. I knew 17.5 points was way too many and it could be middled or hedged later.

The time is now

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Bet365 is offering live betting on the fight tonight

gl bl

 

[alb]

Any live-betting suggestions?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Baldomir stopped Gatti in the 9th

Works for me, I unloaded my Bet365 account on Baldy at +175, +150, and -120


gl bl

 

[Flipper13]

Baldomir stopped Gatti in the 9th

Works for me, I unloaded my Bet365 account on Baldy at +175, +150, and -120


gl bl

Those were live wager plays Box? Curious as to at what point of the fight those wagers were made?

Congrats!

 

[THE KOD]

Baldomir just too much for Gotti who really does fight with heart.

That stepping up in weight is something we should be very wary of in fights we wager on. Gatti had everything going his way and was unable to compete with the obviously bigger Baldomir.

Baldomir with only 9 knockouts, pounds Gatti over and over with the right hand.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Those were live wager plays Box? Curious as to at what point of the fight those wagers were made?

Congrats!

Got +175 after the 2nd or 3rd round

+150 after the 3rd or 4th

-120 after the 4th or 5th


Not exactly sure, just giving you a ballpark, I was busy trying to watch the fight and follow the line at the same time

As MF knows I played the Under 11.5 +204 along time ago but didn't post it. After I played Gatti to go for the huge middle I put 10 bucks on Baldomir in rounds 7-9 +2000 and 10-12 +1400

Some of you are probably wondering why I played Gatti when I had what looked to be a sure thing in Baldy +17.5. One reason really, in the 5dimes rules for pointspread betting, it states that if a fight doesn't go the distance the points are thrown out and whoever wins the fight wins the bet. I knew there would be frequent headbutts in this fight and Gatti cuts easily. This fight had home cookin' written all over it, if the fight was stopped in the 5th - 12th rounds on cuts and Gatti was ahead at the time...I lose.

It was the smart thing to do, I still made a decent profit here, and made a sh*tload personally with the live bets and the ko props. I did lose a small play on Gatti by decision +138 that I forgot about

Some solid action coming up, I feel very confident about the 2nd half of the season

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

that baldomir inside the distance prop works for me........

nice bounce back week,young man.....well done...

 

[HoopsGuru]

box, just wanted to congratulate you on another profitable week. Thanks for the baldomir bets, cashed in on the ko & +17.5 points bets. i had a great time at the fight, love going to AC to see these fights. if gatti retires i hope they find a way to keep having good fights in ac. thanks again!

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Thanks gw


No problem HG, glad you had a great time at the fight and cashed in big as well

Looking to finish the year very strong

gl bl