Betting...scalping...posting...etc...etc...
Betting...scalping...posting...etc...etc...
Where to start...
When I started betting 5 years ago my strategy was simple...If I had a strong feeling on what would happen on a side or total of a fight and the line was reasonable, it was a play. If I thought the odds were 50/50 and the books were giving me decent + money, it was a play. Things were so much simpler then, and my totals were very strong in the early years. But my strategy has evolved and I'm making much more money now...without getting any smarter or spending any more time capping.
Other than picking winners, the most important things in betting boxing are...1) have plenty of cash in all the major books available to US customers...thegreek,bookmaker,sportsbetting,5dime...2) get the openers of each book whenever possible.
My strategy now, besides picking winners of course, is to find value and spot lines that will move in a big way. Obviously all of the plays I post are bets that I made and recommend to others. But sometimes I will bet larger on something I like b/c I know the line will move and I'll be able to scalp it later setting up better odds or sometimes free money on my play.
For example...Last year I played Baldomir over Gatti at +400 and Baldomir +17.5 points at around even money. I wasn't positive that Baldomir would win, the fight was in NJ and it had hometown decision written all over it, but I knew the line was way off so I played it big and waited. By fight time Gatti was -160, I had the other side at +400 and +17.5 points. My point is, I set this situation up on purpose, played Gatti -160 for just enough to cover my potential losses on the other plays. I made a ton of cash on that fight, and while I could've made a little more if I didn't scalp with Gatti at the last minute, it doesn't bother me b/c I was risking absolutely nothing. And thats how you consistently make money in this game
Anyway
As posted a month ago (and thanks to Tony for the heads-up) I loaded up on Forrest at +158...you may have noticed that I only posted it as a 1/2 unit play. I loaded up on Forrest b/c the line was way off and I knew by fight time he would be favored. The more I put on Forrest at + money the more free money would be available after the line moved. Last week I really liked the Katsidis Under at -120, but I played it even bigger than I actually wanted b/c I knew the line was gonna move in a big way. Sure enough, by fight time the Over was +205 and I put just enough on it to cover the potential loss. When a line moves that much you have to cover most of your potential loss, and thats the strategy I'm using now. Yes, sometimes I'm only winning 50% of the potential profits, but like I said, I'm playing them larger than I normally would from the beginning so I can set up the desired profits. And in the process I'm eliminating ALL of the risk.
The reason I bring this up is that...while I like and recommend all of my plays, some of them are influenced by line value knowing the line will move setting up plenty of options. Some of you would like for me to just post the plays that I have no intention of scalping, while others have benefited from the very nice scalp opportunities I've set up lately
So....
From now on I will post my intentions on every play I recommend, that way there are no problems
gl bl
