Boxing 8/18 - 8/20

[BOXLOCKS]

the line on that Figuerola-Alejandro fight flipped completely. I waited as I saw it dropping, but it's turned totally around. Any comments?

Looks too close to call

Figueroa is the naturally bigger guy here, has fought between 140 and 147 his entire career.

Alejandro weighed between 130 and 135 before moving up to 140 last year.

Figueroa has some power with 9 ko's in 11 wins, and he's the bigger guy. Alejandro was stopped at in 2001 by a scrub at 130, to be fair it was early in his career. Figueroa has never been stopped at a higher weight.

Figueroa is for sure promoted by Resnick Productions, who is hosting this event. I'm pretty sure Alejandro is also promoted by Resnick, but I haven't been able to prove that yet.

Both guys are from NY, this fight is in Rochester. Alejandro hasn't fought in NY much, has fought his last 7 outside NY. Figueroa has fought in NY much more often and fought his last fight in Rochester.

Figueroa look pretty solid at +100, but the line movement has to based on something we don't know. If Figueroa gets to +120, I'll play him small on value. If not, no play.

gl frank

 

[frank s.]

Thanks for the speedy response. Like you said, what we don't know can be PAINFUL!

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Why do you like the fight to go under Boxlocks, or just playing because of the plus odds ?

thanks

I wouldn't have played it at even money, if that answers you're question.

I think both of these guys have a chance to be stopped in this fight. Both have been stopped before to lessor punchers. The kicker here, besides +190, is that its 11.5 rounds. I wouldn't have played 9.5 at the same price.

With Vargas its not really his chin that I'm worried about, evene though I do think its possible for him to get hurt in this fight. With Vargas its more his back problem that should worry his backers and over players. The guy has a serious back issues which is the reason for his recent inactivity. He claims he's ready to go now, but at the same time he says his back will never be the same.

Castillejo is a seasoned vet, he should know about Vargas' problems. If Cast and his people are smart they will go at Vargas from the opening bell. As much as I hate to say it, Cast should try to rough him up and throw him around a little.

Castillo and co. know they are up against everything here if it goes to the cards. I expect him to be very aggressive, maybe not at first but he will go after Vargas at some point, he should anyway.

On the other hand, we all know Vargas can punch. I don't expect him to be aggressive early, but if he starts to dominate and hurts Cast, he will try to finish him as always.

The 11.5 rounds is huge due to the inactivity of both fighters. Cast is 37 and hasn't fought in 13 months, Vargas has only fought once in 2.5 years. All that should effect their stamina down the stretch, esp if Cast starts fast like he needs to.

In summary...

Both guys have KO power and both can be hurt.

Both have been inactive

Castillejo is 37 years old

Vargas has a bad back that could fail him at any time

+190


gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

seems more often than not (of late),that replacements in big fights come up big....

thinking about my boy montiel looking unprepared for the straight forward evert briceno.....a guy with a style that is perfect for montiel...montiel eats these brawlers up...

but,after prepping for boxer eric morel,montiel appeared to lose his edge....

not necessarily even just replacements...guys that have supposedly less difficult defenses have struggled...israel vasquez vs guerrero comes to mind...he won,but he looked sluggish...

maussa/vivian harris.....o`neil bell/dale brown...danny williams/tyson....

i`d say soto has a shot...the longer it goes,the better...juarez has gotten used to early k.o.`s...

he`s struggled in some long, tough fights...

the guy`s fought less than 3 rounds in over a year....

weather that early power and you have a real shot...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Tonite I like Figueroa -215 over Alejandro.

Figueroa wins by 6th round tko

Looks like the power and size advantage got it done

Wish I would have played it at +100...oh well


Good call frank

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Looks like Castillejo-Vargas is now scheduled for 10 rounds, not only does that cancel my under play, it gives Castillejo less of a chance IMO. Due to Vargas' inactivity and back problems I thought Cast might be able to wear Vargas down and get to him down the stretch.

 

[armageto]

That sucks to hear Box...hopefully you didn't bet alot on Cast....The under has jumped to +3oo now. Since I don't see any odds on the final results of this fight yet, I might put a small amount on the under just to have more rooting interest in the fight.

On a side note, Austin has replaced Sergui "White Wolf" Lyan...however you spell it, in the Owen Beck fight........

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Lock-Payne under 9.5 +190...lay .2 to win .4

Maddalone-Miller goes the distance +300...lay .1 to win .3

Broussard-Thompson won't start 4rd round +130...lay .2 to win .25


Sorry for the late post, ran into a few tornadoes today

Also played Thapa over Molitor +300 small, fights off board now

Small plays

gl bl

 

[armageto]

I was going to take the Maddalone-Miller under. I would have got it, but I didn't make the bet because I didn't know enough about Miller.....

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding

Diaz over Tello -155...lay .45 to win .3

Dog

Diaz-Trigg fight won't go distance +165...lay .2 to win .35


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Diaz-Trigg was rescheduled for 4 rounds

No action

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Soto wins by 12 round UD :clap:


Congrats to Spead who called this one also

 

[armageto]

Damn it...I didn't make it on my unders, but at least I had Vargas. Rocky really let me down here....my weekend didn't finish to well at all.......

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Wolfe wins by lopsided 10 round decision

Played this one very big personaly

Easy money

 

[Dan Bernadino]

Nice price on Soto, well done Box and spread.