Boxing 9/12 - 9/13

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +17.0 units
1 unit plays: 20-6 +10.6
2 unit plays: 11-4 +1.4
Best Bets: 1-0 +3
Big Dogs: 3-6 +2

9/13
Mosely over De La Hoya +245 1/2 unit (winner)
Mosely-De La Hoya over 10.5 -230 1 unit (winner)
Mosely-De La Hoya draw +2000 small play
Lazcano-Johnston over 10 -340 1 unit (winner)


As usual, if you want to know the logic to any of
my picks just ask.

gl bl

 

[yak rider]

good luck buddy. with ya on most of em. i think lezcano should be the favorite but it's a steep price to pay. think johnston might be a live dog here. i do think lezcano is up and coming and johnston on the way down, but i guess i am gun shy after getting burned on what seems like the exact same thing in the montiel/too sharp fight couple weeks ago. and although alvarez is getting long in the tooth i think he has enough left to smoke choi. well again good luck to ya. yak

 

[BOXLOCKS]

There has been some talk of line movement in
boxing. Here is my take.

In mainstream fights, like the one tonight, line
movement is almost irrelavent as many poeple
will bet on guys like De La Hoya, Tyson, Lewis,
and Jones Jr. no matter who they are fighting.
This has been discussed in recent threads.

That is not the case in smaller non-mainstream
fights as no one will be betting on these fights
without good reason. I put a bet in with Oly on
the Alverez-Choi fight two days ago and they
still haven't graded the wager. When I called to
see what the problem was they acted like I was
the only one to bet on the fight, definitly the first
to call about it. I wouldn't dought that Oly had
less than 10 wagers on that fight. My point is that
only hardcore boxing cappers and people with
inside information are playing these fights. So
line movement in these fights should at least be
considered if not followed. I am not saying the
hardcores and insiders are always right but I
wouldn't want to be on the other side!

Off hand I can think of 3 non-mainstream fights
that the line moved in favor of the losing side or
total. But I can think of a dozen fights where the
line moved in favor of the winner...

Fields over Williams -120 to -200
Cintron over -105 to -160
Taylor over -120 to -180
Cotto under -120 to -180
Hill over Lalonde -300 to -475
Lerma-Phillips over -300 to -340
Ouma over Bojo. -300 to -400

And the list goes on.

I am not saying play all of the sides and totals that
are in favor of line movement, I just think it is foolish
not to consider it. For example, I was considering
playing the Cotto under in tonights non-mainstream
undercard fight. But I noticed that Oly opened the line
at 4 rounds -120's. In one shot the over went to 4.5
rounds and -170. That is a big move for a fight that
won't get much action, and you know Joe Public is
not taking the over in a Cotto fight. That movement
was enough to make me wonder why the other hard-
cores or insiders are laying big money on the over.
And I may decide not to play the under because of it.

Just some food for thought.

In my next write-up I will ramble on about betting over
unders in boxing as I have seen interest in that topic
also.

gl bl

 

[yak rider]

hmmm good points and interesting too. could be that over 4 1/2 received some action because cotto is moving up in caliber of fighter and his opponent has alot more experience. also considering that many times the first round is a feeling out round (lol don't tell rocky juarez that ) leaving only three rounds for cotto to get it done could make many lean toward the more experienced ceballos to last at least 4. on the other hand dimes has had it at -51/2 for -110 for weeks with no movement at all. then again they aren't always on the cutting edge of boxing line movement. then two of ceballos losses were to mosely and johnston not bad fighters. so i guess we will see if cotto is heading to that territory or if ceballos can be the seasoned pro and make the fight last awhile. i personally won't bet the over as although cotto is young and relatively untested there are many reports coming from his camp from sparring partners who are very good pros themselves who think he is the real deal especially as the -3500 would testify. good luck in whatever ya do as always.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Yak
I would definitly play the under 5.5 -110 as I have
posted above, if I play it. But why would people
risk money on an over play when Ceballos was
knocked out in the 3rd round two fights ago by
Randal Baily. He was ko'd by Stevie Johnson in
the 6th round and Stevie doesn't have near the
power of Cotto. Ceballos has been ko'd 3 times
before the 8th round and Cotto hasn't exactly
been fighting scrubs.
(Justin Juuko, John Brown, Cesar Bazan, Joel Perez)

I'm not saying I am playing the under, I just can't
figure out who is risking the over and why?
Think I will leave it alone.

bl

 

[yak rider]

me neither and that being said 5 1/2 is not alot of time to take out an experienced fighter, especially one that may be a bit gunshy of being ko'd again and try to stick and run. well wish me luck. won't go big and at -110 what the heck. gives me a rooting interest awaiting mosley dlh hope all who wacth the big fight night have fun and win some mooola

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Way Too Close!!!

Way Too Close!!!

Glad I didn't take the over 11.5 at -300.
Hope no one else did. Lazcano TKO 11

bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Another example of line movement in a non-
mainstream fight predicting the winner.

Cotto over started at 4 rounds -120 and moved
to 4.5 -170. Sure enough Cotto TKO 7
Glad the line movement scared me off the under.

bl

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Great Call Mosley backers.........

 

[nickcage100]

great call??
that was a complete Bull Shit decision.
oscar won the fight.
judges were on the take.
**** boxing.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

great call??
that was a complete Bull Shit decision.
oscar won the fight.
judges were on the take.
**** boxing.

Well, I dont agree with the Decision, but the man just stole my $$$, but instead of getting pissed, Ill have another beer and get it back tomorrow.........why get mad, when you can just get it back tomorrow?:shrug:

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I agree, that was a BS decision. Oh well

3-0 for +3.2 units this weekend
9-1 for +7.2 units last two threads

Lets keep it rolling!

bl

 

[CryBoy]

Total Injustice

Total Injustice

I had money on Mosley, but let's be honest. De La Hoya won this one. Unbelievable.

 

[nickcage100]

well that is my last bet on boxing. **** this sport.

 

[gardenweasel]

glad to win a few bucks.....

glad to win a few bucks.....

but jack mosely`s instructions to k.o. dlh and the look on shane`s face as the decision was read told the story....another unfortunate incident in boxing history......

but,why look a gift horse in the mouth.....i`ll take it...i was overdue.....but,i don`t have to like it.....

congrats everyone

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Jim Lampley said 4 out of 5 boxing writers at ringside
had Mosley as the winner of the fight. But I agree
Shane and his dad were suprised when they heard
the decision. I'll have to watch that again.

 

[Trossi3389]

those 4 writers

those 4 writers

those 4 out of five writers were in someones pocket!!! cause this is a outrage!!!! some people there say that mosley did win the fight.. i.c that to be unreal due to the fact that lampley and foreman both seem to think dela-hoya did win this fight ( WHICH HE DID ) who both sat ringside also!!!! its easy just look at the stats people.. us veiwers were in the ring with the camera!! im sick... i bet this fight thinking that this thing could not happen due to A-HOLE DON KING wasnt involed!!!! plus the fact for a bigger payday for a rubber match..... big big money must of been on dela-hoya for vagas to flip this one WHICH THEY DID!!!miserable c##$$%$suckers...

 

[EricG]

This was a complete dissgrace to boxing, but you really got to feel bad for De la Hoya. These A Holes are going to make a great boxer quit when he has a lot left in him because of there BS. Same BS as the Trinidad fight.
Mosley knows he got a big gift from Vegas, that look on his face after the decission and big smile afterwards told it all.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

First of all Oscar is not done, the guy made 17 mill
on that fight and there will be another 17 mill for
him when he fights again. The real losers of this
fight are the boxing fans who just got robbed of
Mosley-De La Hoya III

 

[fletcher]

I have been saying this for 4 years here if it is good for boxing then more then not that person will win. Also it was far from a one sided fight people look at that stupid punch stat to much this is not amauture boxing where all punches score. a fight is scored on 3 things power punches, clean punches laned and ringmenship. oscar was his on worst person again from rounds 8 on he was shook more then once he was going back the whole fight so you lose ringmen ship points there and he got out faught the last five rounds when it cam to power punches and ringmanship. he was just sticking his left hand out like the old oscar in the late rounds not snapping it the middle rounds were tuff to call could of gone either way first 2 oscar won but he was hit hard in the 2nd behind the ear and the body punches he took in the late rounds were hard they took there toll. so it was far from a one sided fight i had cotto ov,mosley over and mosley , i had it score 116-114 for oscar but many rounds could of gone either way comp u box is a joke does not mean shit just because your hands are busy they do not count as points and clean punches like a olympic fight.

now if oscar would of won they would of been no re-match shane would of gone down a few pounds and boxing would of lost money now you have ppv 3 which will make even more money that is how this business works it had nothing to do with vegas hell oscar fights out of a vegas camp in top rank, it is all about the green backs and always will be, the goverening bodies have to make there money and by things like this they do. donot fool yourself into thinking they don't purse cuts do not pay shit it is the ppv and advertising leading up to the fight from big corps who bring the money into the ibf,wbc and wba and it will always be that way. but to call it a rip off is wrong and like i said was far from 1 sided the hbo guys who announch don't know therass from a whole in the ground, george might of been able to box but those guys are there to stir the flames and bring in more money same as the protest that is to just get a bigger fight it will never be over turned oscar knows it bob knows it but they aslo knows it will sell more ppv for a little bit of contraverse all about the green my friends and i took mosley because of that, i thought i lost was happy to be 2-1 and make good money on the night but was not shocked i have seen far far worse then that. and will see it again somewhere down the road.