Boxing: Adrien Broner v. Vicente Escobedo 07/21/12

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december26

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(WBO Super Featherweight Title 12 rounds)
-Adrien Broner -1200
-Vicente Escobedo +600


Broner's odds have more than doubled since his fight w/ Eloy Perez. My only play will be on the over/under when it comes out.
 

fastfrank

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(WBO Super Featherweight Title 12 rounds)
-Adrien Broner -1200
-Vicente Escobedo +600


Broner's odds have more than doubled since his fight w/ Eloy Perez. My only play will be on the over/under when it comes out.

For all his shucking and jiving, Broner is amazing to watch. Physically gifted and lighting fast. Should be lined around 7.5 or so. Probably less even.
 
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fastfrank

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lol damn

peeps hammering broner

esco up to +1000

they must have sunday's newspaper

As dec26 said, round prop or some other prop. Broner by KO and Broner inside may be the only way, unless, as YOU said, another upset. Only good thing for Broner is that he isn't trained by Roach.
 
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december26

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Unbelievable

Unbelievable

Broner's now -2000, who the hell is betting this fucking guy to keep increasing the odds!?
 

fastfrank

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Broner's now -2000, who the hell is betting this fucking guy to keep increasing the odds!?

True story. There was this guy I knew, by sight and reputation in Vegas. He would go into Mandalay Bay and bet like $100,000 to win $5000 or even $250,000 to win $10, 000, stuff like that. He was pissing them off as he would bet fights were the outcome was almost 99% assured. They just could'nt wait for him to go in the soup. Not sure where he is now at any rate. Point being, there are people that lay huge lumber on what is PERCEIVED to be a lock. We saw Pac-man and Khan most likely cost a lot of people lots of money on "lock" plays. Scary stuff.
PS: guys name was Sol.
 

december26

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Fights worldwide

Fights worldwide

Well, I may just skip the Broner fight altogether, as I see some good matchups on the boxrec schedule for Argentina, Mexico, and Italy. Hopefully see some odds on fights like:

Ismael El Massoudi v. Diego Gabriel Chaves
Ermano Fegatilli v. Devis Boschiero
Jorge Paez Jr. v. Omar Chavez
Johan Perez v. Pablo Cesar Cano
Argenis Mendez v. Martin Honorio
 
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fastfrank

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Well, I may just skip the Broner fight altogether, as I see some good matchups on the boxrec schedule for Argentina, Mexico, and Italy. Hopefully see some odds on fights like:

Ismael El Massoudi v. Diego Gabriel Chaves
Ermano Fegatilli v. Devis Boschiero
Jorge Paez Jr. v. Omar Chavez
Johan Perez v. Pablo Cesar Cano
Argenis Mendez v. Martin Honorio

Smart thinking. If you can snatch some low hanging fruit, why not? Also, I almost cannot believe I am thinking this, but I have a gut feeling Junior Chavez may beat Sergio Martinez! I realize junior is still a work in progress, but he can take a punch and is "strong like bull". Probably an ugly affair, with junior chasing the whirling dervish Martinez all over the ring, Another Roach product, but this time his guy is the underdog.
 

december26

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I was going to create a new post on the JCC Jr. v. Martinez fight, but I thought it might be a little early as I don't believe Jr. has even begun training yet. However, I've been doing some light film study on a weekly basis, as this fight could be my biggest play of the year. My main areas of focus right now are to try and pick out specific signs of physical decline on Martinez, dating back to the first Williams fight all the way up to his last fight against Macklin. Also on the flipside for Jr., I've been watching the Martinez fights against Macklin, Barker, and Pavlik, to refresh my memory as to why each one had respective success in either making Martinez ineffective, and/or winning rounds despite the fact that these three do not possess great speed. My thought process at the moment is to take bits and pieces out of each fighter, such as Pavlik's size at middleweight, which after rehydration was pretty close to Jr.'s rehydration weight, minus the height.
 

fastfrank

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There is a photo of the two of them facing off. Junior has an air of confidence, while Martinez is looking up at him with much concern. At least that's how it looks to me. Only reason I even brought it up was I think the line out now could flip. And I have to question whether or not Papa Chavez would let his son get into a fight he doesn't feel 100% his boy can win. Yea, I guess we should focus on the close in stuff for now.
 

Evan Young

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Hard to forget in early 2011 Chavez struggled with Billy Lyell. And even Rubio wasn't really easy. (I don't think Rubio could hit Martinez in the ass with a handful of rice.) His Lee win was great but Lee has been in excruciatingly soft since he was bombed by Vera. And overrated but mediocre Craig McEwan was kicking his ass all over the place until Lee found him so I don't give the win as much weight as some. And Lee was actually outboxing Julio for the first few rounds before his spindly legs couldn't move him around anymore. Martinez is a different animal. He's fast, athletic, experienced and stronger than some think. And even the fights with those UK guys, he wasn't stellar but he still won most of the rounds he didn't look good in and finished them late. He really wasn't under much duress in those bouts. And some talk of the size advantage but Martinez walks around heavier than people think, he pares down in weight as well. Martinez isn't gonna be cannon fodder on the ropes and he has the legs and the engine to hit, move and frustrate Chavez. I could imagine a late Martinez stoppage in this one or a solid decision win.
 

december26

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Viva Argentina - Friday plays

Viva Argentina - Friday plays

<IMG src=http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-76xzZtYDAYA/UAjmwb7Lc7I/AAAAAAAADuM/GVe7PRv5zc4/s1600/Veron-maciel.jpg width="400" height="300" alt="Veron-maciel">
(Javier Francisco Maciel(right) -140 v. Mateo Damian Veron(left) +110)
(10 rounds - Argentina light middleweight title)

After a small taste of Argentina last weekend, I'm feeling lucky again. We have another 1 KO fighter from Argentina, champion Veron w/ a record of 13(1)-6(3)-2. Surprisingly there's a wealth of footage available on both fighters. Veron keeps his left hand low and is a slapping puncher w/ terrible accuracy. Tends to do better against taller fighters, which Maciel is not. Mostly fights maintaining distance, but gets drawn into firefights just as much. A good 2 fight comparison to highlight all this is Veron's fights against Guido Pitto. In the first fight, Pitto is very much the shorter man, thus successfully landing bodyshots, dropping Veron and stopping Veron on bodyshots. In the rematch, Pitto must've gone through a growth spurt as he's equally as tall if not taller than Veron. Veron was able to outbox Pitto and squeaked out a majority decision by a 1/2 point.

Maciel in a nutshell looks like a solid fighter, nothing special. Great KO%, which usually is taken w/ a grain of salt when it comes to South American fighters, but his power appears to be the real deal, especially his bodyshots, as he's stopped several fighters w/ single bodyshots. Most notable fight was at middleweight against Dmitry Pirog, who many predicted would blow Maciel out. Whether it was ring rust or not, Maciel made the fight competitive, backing Pirog up at times and took Pirog's best, showing a good chin. His other defeat earlier in his career apparently was highly suspect, as it's officially listed on boxrec as a TKO4, but observers of the fight say a cut caused by a headbutt was instead ruled as a cut caused by a punch. Maciel was dominating the fight before and after the cut, but the fight was apparently questionably stopped to give his opponent the TKO victory. W/ Maciel being a wicked body puncher, and Veron being very lean on the body, plus already being stopped via bodyshots AND having no power to speak of, I don't see how he can keep Maciel off of him, and it could be an early night for Veron. I rate Maciel levels above Veron. I will say the only thing I didn't like about Maciel against Pirog was his lack of offense, but given the fact that he was up a weight class against a top notch opponent, perhaps caution was well advised. I don't anticipate him fighting as cautious against Veron. Big play on Maciel @ -140.

<IMG src=http://fightnews.ru/files/u1741/001hovhannisyanvsacostaimg_6741.jpg width="360" height="240" alt="001hovhannisyanvsacostaimg_6741">
(Miguel Acosta(right) -270 v. Art Hovhannisyan(left) +210)
(10 rounds - lightweight)

Just a small play here. An in-form Acosta that stopped Paulus Moses, Urbano Antillon, and troubled Rios in the first half of their fight, I'd take over Hovhannisyan any day. However, since the Rios loss, it seems he's been shot to shit overnight as he looked absolutely horrible against Richard Abril regardless of Abril's style. Abril isn't known for his power, but he was able to drop Acosta w/ glancing blows, and Acosta couldn't keep his footing against the slightest of shoves. Hovhannisyan isn't a lightweight and admitted himself he would've liked to face a super featherweight, but couldn't pass up the opportunity on this fight as they simply don't come his way often. W/ Acosta being a true lightweight, I thought there would be a huge size difference but once side by side at the weigh in, there doesn't seem to be much difference, in fact Hovhannisyan looks much thicker. The blueprint's out on how to beat Acosta, and that's w/ pressure, which Hovhannisyan likes to apply. Whether he's good enough, we shall see. I don't often play the odds, but I'll take my chances when up against what appears to be a suddenly fragile fighter. Small play on Hovhannisyan @ +210.
 
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december26

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Adrien "Has a Problem" Broner

Adrien "Has a Problem" Broner

This self-professed junk food lover came in 3.5 lbs over the limit at the weigh-in. :nono:
 
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fastfrank

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This self-professed junk food lover came in 3.5 lbs over the limit at the weigh-in. :nono:

He says he has to move up, and reports are that he is thinking a Mayweather fight. I sense he is looking WAY past his opponent, always a dangerous thing to do. Guess over is a good play!
 
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