Boxing: Adrien Broner v. Vicente Escobedo 07/21/12

[fastfrank]

So he was 3.5 over. Now he cannot weigh more than 140 on Saturday. All fuked up. This, when all is said and done, may be called the "year of the upsets". Escobedo has got to be stoked now.

 

[fastfrank]

<IMG src=http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-76xzZtYDAYA/UAjmwb7Lc7I/AAAAAAAADuM/GVe7PRv5zc4/s1600/Veron-maciel.jpg width="400" height="300" alt="Veron-maciel">
(Javier Francisco Maciel(right) -140 v. Mateo Damian Veron(left) +110)
(10 rounds - Argentina light middleweight title)​

After a small taste of Argentina last weekend, I'm feeling lucky again. We have another 1 KO fighter from Argentina, champion Veron w/ a record of 13(1)-6(3)-2. Surprisingly there's a wealth of footage available on both fighters. Veron keeps his left hand low and is a slapping puncher w/ terrible accuracy. Tends to do better against taller fighters, which Maciel is not. Mostly fights maintaining distance, but gets drawn into firefights just as much. A good 2 fight comparison to highlight all this is Veron's fights against Guido Pitto. In the first fight, Pitto is very much the shorter man, thus successfully landing bodyshots, dropping Veron and stopping Veron on bodyshots. In the rematch, Pitto must've gone through a growth spurt as he's equally as tall if not taller than Veron. Veron was able to outbox Pitto and squeaked out a majority decision by a 1/2 point.

Maciel in a nutshell looks like a solid fighter, nothing special. Great KO%, which usually is taken w/ a grain of salt when it comes to South American fighters, but his power appears to be the real deal, especially his bodyshots, as he's stopped several fighters w/ single bodyshots. Most notable fight was at middleweight against Dmitry Pirog, who many predicted would blow Maciel out. Whether it was ring rust or not, Maciel made the fight competitive, backing Pirog up at times and took Pirog's best, showing a good chin. His other defeat earlier in his career apparently was highly suspect, as it's officially listed on boxrec as a TKO4, but observers of the fight say a cut caused by a headbutt was instead ruled as a cut caused by a punch. Maciel was dominating the fight before and after the cut, but the fight was apparently questionably stopped to give his opponent the TKO victory. W/ Maciel being a wicked body puncher, and Veron being very lean on the body, plus already being stopped via bodyshots AND having no power to speak of, I don't see how he can keep Maciel off of him, and it could be an early night for Veron. I rate Maciel levels above Veron. I will say the only thing I didn't like about Maciel against Pirog was his lack of offense, but given the fact that he was up a weight class against a top notch opponent, perhaps caution was well advised. I don't anticipate him fighting as cautious against Veron. Big play on Maciel @ -140.

<IMG src=http://fightnews.ru/files/u1741/001hovhannisyanvsacostaimg_6741.jpg width="360" height="240" alt="001hovhannisyanvsacostaimg_6741">
(Miguel Acosta(right) -270 v. Art Hovhannisyan(left) +210)
(10 rounds - lightweight)​

Just a small play here. An in-form Acosta that stopped Paulus Moses, Urbano Antillon, and troubled Rios in the first half of their fight, I'd take over Hovhannisyan any day. However, since the Rios loss, it seems he's been shot to shit overnight as he looked absolutely horrible against Richard Abril regardless of Abril's style. Abril isn't known for his power, but he was able to drop Acosta w/ glancing blows, and Acosta couldn't keep his footing against the slightest of shoves. Hovhannisyan isn't a lightweight and admitted himself he would've liked to face a super featherweight, but couldn't pass up the opportunity on this fight as they simply don't come his way often. W/ Acosta being a true lightweight, I thought there would be a huge size difference but once side by side at the weigh in, there doesn't seem to be much difference, in fact Hovhannisyan looks much thicker. The blueprint's out on how to beat Acosta, and that's w/ pressure, which Hovhannisyan likes to apply. Whether he's good enough, we shall see. I don't often play the odds, but I'll take my chances when up against what appears to be a suddenly fragile fighter. Small play on Hovhannisyan @ +210.

Again, excellent work. Tailed on the first one, passed on Hov though as it seemed it would be very close.

 

[december26]

Not on board the Escobedo train

Not on board the Escobedo train

Thanks frank :toast:

I thought it was an easy night's work after Hovhannisyan sent Acosta into next century towards the end of the first round, but he made me sweat just a little bit :0041 Scored the fight 95-93 for Hovhannisyan myself.

Now w/ all the weigh-in hoopla over Broner v. Escobedo, proof is in the pudding that bettors are taking it seriously as lines have gone back down to opening lines. However I'm not sold. This isn't Rios failing to make weight after not eating for 5 days leading up to the weigh-in. Broner I think was well aware and was training w/ total disregard for his contracted weight limit, because he looks to be in phenomenal shape as usual. As a spoiled rotten HBO investment, he feels he calls the shots and can do as he pleases, which unfortunately for the time being is the case. He's going to have to be no more than 140 by 9:30am tomorrow morning, which is a 6.5 pound rehydration allowance, but not everyone eats breakfast by 9:30am, and I don't think it's too big a deal for Broner should he care to even consider this. Just my thoughts, but as I was on the fence about betting this fight beforehand, after tonight's action I'm completely off the fence now. Good luck w/ whatever you go for. I'll probably end up making some small plays on other fights.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Plays

Plays

Broner fight not the distance -150
Perez v Cano Draw +2500

Both for a decent amount :0008

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Again, excellent work. Tailed on the first one, passed on Hov though as it seemed it would be very close.

Good work from both of you, Maciel was a clear pick for me but given i could only get -300 only SB had the crasy line of -140 so no play for me. the same for Hovh. ... :sadwave:

Its a pitty that I couldnt access all those lines, but I will not complain as I know from Frank that he can only access 2 books so in general I have a broader selcetion available.

Cheers
LotL

 

[december26]

SB

SB

Thanks Lunch. I was thinking to myself the same thing, SB's lines had everyone beat by a mile. Maciel eventually went up to -220 while Hovhannisyan dropped down to +170. Even for today I'm considering a parlay w/ Diego Gabriel Chaves who I have at -280, but who everyone else has at -400.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Broner fight not the distance -150
Perez v Cano Draw +2500

Both for a decent amount :0008

Just added:

Perez: -120
Jorge Lacierva +190 and draw +2500
both small

 

[LordoftheLunch]

2nd weight Broner comes in at 143 :mj07:
Maybe the fight is off now or they put a HUGE insentive for Escobeno... if it takes place , this weight diffrence should be a HUGE advantage for B.

:0corn

 

[december26]

2nd weight Broner comes in at 143 :mj07:
Maybe the fight is off now or they put a HUGE insentive for Escobeno... if it takes place , this weight diffrence should be a HUGE advantage for B.

:0corn

I was half hoping Broner would have even a shred of respect and come in at 140 :142smilie

However, 143 rehydration isn't surprising by any stretch. He was 144 for the Ponce De Leon fight. Escobedo was 140 this morning. Sites are reporting that despite an offer of double his initial purse (150k to 300k) Team Escobedo is still holding firm on their position of calling the fight off.

While I respect Team Escobedo for fighting for their principles and refusing to be bullied, I don't feel Broner's unfair size advantage has as much to do w/ Team Escobedo's concerns as much as them wanting and expecting to fight a Broner that had to struggle to make weight. In Escobedo's campaigns at lightweight, I'm quite sure both Guerrero and most definitely Katsidis rehydrated past the welterweight limit. Either way, no play on this fight for me.

 

[THE_THONG]

it's straight out CHEATING

douchebag broner

 

[THE_THONG]

yea esco couldnt handle that version of katsidis

wtf he gonna do with big daddy broner

--- read off twitter

FIGHT IS OFF

well guys u got ufc tonight

take LOMBARD :0008

 

[LordoftheLunch]

yea esco couldnt handle that version of katsidis

wtf he gonna do with big daddy broner

--- read off twitter

FIGHT IS OFF

well guys u got ufc tonight

take LOMBARD :0008

Just heard the fight is going to happen. B. close to 150 already :lol:

 

[december26]

Escobedo lost both fights to Katsidis and Guerrero, but the point I was trying to make earlier but failed to mention was that he went the distance. Broner's weight is rising like yeast as we speak. Escobedo's in a win-win situation, w/ a nearly half million dollar purse secured and a title shot still on the line. The team's main concern is the danger in size disparity, so I sense fighting cautious and off the back foot is in the plan. Small play 8.5 over @ even money.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

If I am not mistaken Boschiero +425 just came in. I hope you guy bet it at SB. Again I could not get it FU...:facepalm:

 

[THE_THONG]

ok just read the fight is on

:mj07:

----

i hope esco makes half a mil in total :0074

 

[THE_THONG]

oscar de la hoya said he smellin' upset on twitter

esco = dead man walking

 

[december26]

If I am not mistaken Boschiero +425 just came in. I hope you guy bet it at SB. Again I could get it FU...:facepalm:

Excellent hit Lunch, Bosciero took it via UD.

 

[LordoftheLunch]

Excellent hit Lunch, Bosciero took it via UD.

Thnks december, but I forgot the not... SB was AGAIN the only book offering with such a line :sadwave: