boxing , MMA, etc

[Steal]

pretty new to betting on these events..

question: do the big dogs hit?

I have bet a few here and there, with juicy odds but no avail...

anyway had mayoraga the other night, another loss

how about the MMA, underdogs?

thx

 

[THE_THONG]

yeah, man, but as i see it you have to follow the fight game religiously to score at a decent rate

it's very hard just to say oh that guys +800, he has a puncher's chance, u may get lucky once

but say u saw glenn donaire lose to darchinyan and do ok then darchinyan goes against glenn's more skillful brother with more pop, speed and reach and nonito is +1300, u can see those ones coming from a mile away, like Mijares +230 over Arce

these upsets over +500 that i can remember:

Henry Maske +600 over Virgil Hill
Saul Roman +1800 over Kasim Ouma
Mayorga by Decision +1000 over Vargas
Vera +600 over Andy Lee
Deandre Latimore +550 over Sechew Powell
K9 Bundrage +500 over Kassim Ouma
Nate Campbell +400 over Juan Diaz
Mora +500 over Forrest
Canchila +700 over Giovanni Segura

if u paid attention to the rise of Kelly Pavlik, u knew he would whoop Miranda's ass then dethrone Jermain Taylor

remember when Lamon Brewster was +250 against Golota lol, then went against Lamon with Liakhovich +400

 

[frank s.]

No one is handing out sacks of money that easy. However, if you don't follow the fight game religously, than just follow some of the crew here. You have to read ALL the posts during the week and cull the best of the best. I would mention some guys I feel have their eye on the ball as it were, but some take exception to that so I won't. Just keep perusing the posts and you will be able to tell in due time. This forum is the best as far as boxing discussion goes.

 

[crow]

If you want to win consistenly, you need to view the matches.
The golden rule in boxing betting is you NEVER place a bet without having seen BOTH fighters.

 

[kickserv]

For MMA........kickserv loves the underdogs.....over the last 2 years, underdog odds have dropped. But still some value with underdogs. Of course it does depend on the fight, but in my mind underdogs are a good play in MMA. Especially in prelim fights in the UFC and WEC. My record is way below 500, but I am + + + when it comes to profit. Obviously that's because of all the dogs I play. Don't get me wrong I do bet on favs, but that doesn't always work.......does the name Ryan Ford ring any bells to madjackers

Of course when GSP is fighting never bet on the dog :firing:


Lots of guys on here know their boxing and MMA.....and if you want to know who the best fighter in MMA is....just ask kegray

 

[The Sponge]

If you like betting dogs follow Kickserv in MMA. Even when he bets favorites they turn into dogs.:SIB

 

[kickserv]

Sponge.......very funny...very funny:mj07:

Sponge takes huge jab at kickserv....kickserv cries

 

[kickserv]

The boxing dudes may disagree, but I think MMA is much better for dogs then boxing. In boxing there are a lot of mis-matches. In MMA, the best fighters consistently fight the best fighters (ummmm except for Fedor!). Sure there are exceptions, some of the MMA fights in Japan are a complete joke. But for the most part, MMA is more competitive then boxing. IE, better to bet on the underdog.


Of course as stated earlier, if GSP is fighting.....never ever bet on the doggie



And finally, if Houston Alexander, Melvin Manhoef or Sean Sherk are fighting....DON'T BET ON THEM. Sherk fought the dumbest fight in the history of MMA last time out. And Alexander and Manhoef would lose to my grampa if the fight went to the ground.

 

[frank s.]

Crow speaketh the truth. Betting blind is dangerous, HOWEVER, I say again, if you just want some TV adrenalin rush action, you can get some good picks here. If you intend to bet any large sums, Crow is 100% correct.

 

[nj]

Thong brings up a good point about Pavlik, but the Pavlik case also brings up an overlooked, and impossibly difficult issue: randomness and volitility.

Many other referees would have stopped the first JT/Pav fight in the 2nd round. Pavlik acted uncharacteristically cocky and stupid, you could have analyzed every one of his fight videos and never ever predicted the second round to unfold that way. The ref could have waved it off, Pav would have been written off as a White Hype, and all Pavlik backers end up looking stupid.

Just always remember that many factors are out of your control. You can analyse doggedly and come to perfect reasonable conclusions, but you cannot control the fighter, or the ref, etc. You can only predict what should happen, there's no guarantee they will follow the script.

 

[The Sponge]

Sponge.......very funny...very funny:mj07:

Sponge takes huge jab at kickserv....kickserv cries

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SazBzvQ0ZAM

 

[THE_THONG]

Steal,

anything can happen, look at the Mosley-Mayorga fight, if you had Mosley by Decision that is prolly the worse beat ever well next to...

Humberto Soto -800 beating Franciso Lorenzo into a pulp and he LOSES due to horrible ref decision of Joe Cortez

Roman Karmazin was -1500 and got knocked out by Alex Bunema

 

[weepaul]

A few things to think about when betting is , never bet with your heart but bet with your head.
I love Ricky Hatton and I think Mayweather is a knob but come fight night my money was all over Mayweather.

NEVER chase losses. You want to be ahead each week but it won't happen.
Chasing losses when you are feeling down will cripple you.

NEVER bet while drunk. You might make completely irrational bets and wake up with more than a hangover to be pissed off about.

NEVER place huge wagers on heavy favourites or parlay's. There is no such thing as a sure bet.
A buddy of mine, who is a damn fine boxing capper lost $40,000 in 2 months by betting $10,000 or $15,000 on favourites at over -1000 odds.
He was winning at least $1,000 a month while betting like this for months. It only took 2 or 3 losses and he had lost all his winnings and most of his own bank account.
He bet $15,000 on the above mentioned Karmazan fight at -1500. Karmazan was winning handily and gets dummied with 2 rounds to go.
He also bet around $15,000 on the sure hit prospect Aaron Williams against Jose Luis Herrera at -1500. Williams has the guy down and out in the first round and decides to Fuk around and showboat, he ends up getting dummied himself in round 5.

The biggest underdog win from last year was Troy Browning at +2500 over Julio Cesar Garcia. Garcia was supposed to be the second coming of JC Chavez and Browning had been out of the game for 8 years and was 39 years old.
Garcia fights like shit, throws 5 punches a round and loses to the far older, far smaller fighter on points.

These are some of the trapfalls that older, degenerate, arseholes such as myself have fallin into.

For bets on fighting, there is no better place to be than here. :toast:

 

[Ghost Kid]

great stuff guys

One of the best parts about having a team of guys here is the ability to jump on the early lines

every now and then the oddsmakers are WAY off. it doesn't happen too often, but

2 of the wildest I can remember, off hand:

Lujan +400 against Castillo (which night janitor caught early)....a great grab

and way back

Corrales opened even money against Clottey.

All the smart cappers new Corrales was spent after his wars with Castillo, and moving up two weight classes spelled DISASTER.

The line quickly moved to 3 to 1 and never came back. But those who grabbed it early coasted to easy money. Clottey pounded poor Diego mercilessly.

one more I just remembered, Pavlik-Taylor 1

Pavlik opened +280 against Jermaine. A great grab for those who had followed Pavlik's rise to the top and knew he was a big threat to Taylor.

 

[THE_THONG]

forgot about the big one

Breidis Prescott +600 KO1 Amir Khan

the announcers said one of the biggest upsets in british boxing history

Quintana was +600 in first fight against Paul Williams

carlos looked like 60 pesos in the rematch

 

[crow]

Another vital part of boxing betting is knowing when NOT TO BET ..

If the odds are too crappy, for starters.

Or if there's too much uncertainty; the Vitaly Peter HW matchup is a good example; anything can happen, so one better bets the undercard and enjoys the main event.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

My thoughts on MMA are to bet on the fights that you are really confident in. Don't bet on fights hoping, or thinking they might win. I typically don't look at the odds unless it just doesn't make sense. Usually in the fights I bet on, the odds are reasonable.

Also, MMA isn't like baseball, basketball, or any other major sport where people can just watch it and understand who's better then who. They call it MIXED Martial Arts for a reason. My suggestions are to just educate yourself on the sport and get a good knowledge of what it really is. I can't tell you how many hillbilly's I know that simply think it's 2 guys in the cage and the bigger or badest looking guys will win.

ps- Fade Kickserv if you want to win. Anyone who roots for GSP can't know his MMA! heh jk!