Bracketology Thread

[Toledo Prophet]

With the regular season in its stretch drive, I thought it would be good conversation fodder to start a thread devoted to the chase for the final at large bids into the ncaa tourney field as well as possiblr matchups/brackets for the Conference Tournaments........Championship Week might be my favorite week of the sports calendar, so this thread is right up my alley. Hopefully it will be of value.

This might be one the most exciting closes to the regular season in recent years. So many bids seem up for grabs, with so many teams in contention that there is a big "bracket buster" game seemingly every night from here on out. There will be a ton of at-large ramifcations come conference tourney time.

So lets get March Madness rolling in this thread......hey, even if it ends up a boring thread, maybe we could kill a day of work by discussing hoops, eh!?!?!

What teams are you watching down the stretch. Who is in trouble? Who do you see surging and stealing a bid in the end? What league tournies are you most looking forward?

 

[Toledo Prophet]

I'll get it started by bringing up one team who plays tonight and finds itself in a precarious position with the selection committee.

The Ohio State Buckeyes.

They've been secure with their bid all season, but two recent home losses to league contenders has knocked them down a peg. They do have impressive wins over Sryacuse and Florida, two fellow bubble teams, so that should carry some weight.

But, check out this close of the schedule, starting tonight: At Indiana, At Minnesota, Home vs Purdue and Home vs Michigan State.

The potential is there for either an impressive streak of wins to clinch a bid or a free fall out of at large contention completely.

Taking a spin around the web and the various field projections, the Buckeyes are still "In" as of today.....ESPN has them a #12, collegehoopsnet and bracketboard both have them as a #10 while cbs sportsline has them a #10, although cbs has not updated since last Wednesday, which is pretty lame if you ask me.

What do the Bucks have to do to keep their bid....is 2-2 enough with strong home wins next week vs. PU and MSU.....i would think so.....but if they do worse, they might need to advance in the Big 10 tourney.....right now, they would play MSU again in the 4/5 game Friday afternoon of the tourney. That has the makings of a huge last chance stand for the Bucks.

While there is plenty of chances to look good for OSU, I think this team is in trouble as far as a bid goes as I dont think they are good enough to break even over their last four.

Now, I will really hang up and listen.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Well, the Bucks gave it a nice effort in the second half last night, but fell short.

They have a big game Saturday night at Minny.....if they dont win there, they will surely need to sweep their last two home games next week vs PU and MSU to merit consideration.

Anything less than a 2-1 finish, and they will need to win at least a game or two in the big 10 tourney.

Elsewhere, I though Va Tech made a nice statement last night. They dont play again until next week, closing at home vs Wake and then at Clemmie. Hokies are headed to a 4/5 game in the acc tourney.

If they win out next week and take the 4/5 game, they might make a pretty good case. They might still need to beat the top seed in the ACC semi's, though. Still, with a winning record in the ACC, including a sweep of Maryland, the Hokies might not need the ACC auto bid to get in, just a couple of wins in the league tourney could get them in.

Of course, Vandy made huge news last night, but they weren't on the bubble, so for the purposes of this thread it isnt a significant result as far as the remaining at large bids go.

 

[bryanz]

I think the Bucks are dead, you can't consider Syracuse a quality win. Syracuse didn't make the tournament last yr and they stand at # 11 in the B-East. Think the Buckeyes need to run the table and get to the finals in Con Tour to get in .

 

[hogman14]

Agreed, it is tough to "cap" so to speak with the conference tournies meaning as much this year as they have in the past...It's interesting to see how certain conferences (through bias, strength of schedules, etc) will get preferential treatment, although I guess that's not something blockbuster. I'll be lookin for a team that starts to heat up now...we'll see...a lot of it is scheme going down the wire, so we'll see where coaching can come in as well.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Bryanz and Hog, you both make good points.

I would agree the Bucks hopes are fading. The wins over Sryacuse and Florida could end up important, but not so much if the Orange and Gators fade down the stretch as well. It might end up determing who gets a home game in the NIT, instead of the last at large bid into the tourney. :142smilie

In a vacuum, the Bucks could win those big home games next week and win the 4/5 game in the big 10 tourney and make the field......but that does not take into account all the other results of the next few weeks which will also impact the selections.....going 3-2 and advancing into the big 10 semi's would put them in a position to earn a bid, but with other teams surging and any one or combo of Drake, Kent St, Butler losing in their league tourney, the Buckeyes would hardly be a sure thing at that point.

Also, they have already lost at home against IU and Wisco, so I would be surprised if they won both games next week at home over Purdue and MSU......i could see them losing all of their final three games.

The Bucks might be in ESPN and CBS field of 65 right now, but unless they start getting some wins, they wont be in the field come selection Sunday.

A four-bid Big 10, by the way, opens the door for another at large somewhere as for most of the season, the projections have had five Big 10 teams in. Every OSU game is a must win for them from here on out.

 

[Houseman]

I like trying to figure out how many teams from each conf will go. I think Big E gets in the most teams.

SEC - 5
ACC - 6
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 7
Big E - 8

Any thoughts on the smaller conf?

 

[Ronnie]

I like trying to figure out how many teams from each conf will go. I think Big E gets in the most teams.

SEC - 5
ACC - 6
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 7
Big E - 8

Any thoughts on the smaller conf?

Pac 10-7 teams?? Really?:shrug:
Pac 10 should only get 5 unless you think Cal and Arizona get in. Both teams unimpressive

 

[Houseman]

I think both Cal and AZ make it.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Siding with Ronnie on this one regarding the Pac 10. I feel they will max out at 6 bids, if they get that many.

UCLA, Stanford and Wassau are in, barring a total collapse on the Cougars part.

That leaves USC, Arizona, Arizona State and Cal as at large possibilities......i have already eliminated Oregon.

Anyway, a look at the schedules of the four above bubble teams shows that there are both a lot of chances to impress the committee, but also the chance of all of those teams to go into a tailspin.

Cal: Wassau, UW, at USC, at UCLA.....Cal is just 6--8 in league play, 15-10 overall......I do not think 2-2 to close will nab them an at large, but can they do better than that? I say no.

ASU: UCLA, USC, at Oregon, at Oregon St
AU: USC, UCLA, At OSU, at Oregon.

Both the Cats and Devils are 7-7, 17-9 overall....like Cal, I dont think a 2-2 finish will make either a lock for an at large.....unlike Cal, a 2-2 finish would not force either AU or ASU to win the league tourney to get in. Either could finish 2-2 and advance a round or two in the Pac 10 and get an at large.

USC: At Az, at ASU, Cal, Stanford.....of these four teams, only the Trojans are above .500 in league play, 8-6, 17-9 overall.......a 2-2 close should get them in, but what if they then flame out in their first PAc 10 tourney game.....back to the bubble and wait it out.

Not all four of these teams are getting in......maybe three of them will........i feel pretty strongly barring free falls that two from the USC, AU, ASU and Cal group will get in. But, its a matter of who navigates their difficult closing schedules better and who outperforms who in the Pac 10 tourney. I just dont see any of those four teams winning out, yet I think any of them can go the other way, post a 1-3 record in their final four and see their at large chances go up in smoke.

We have a huge Thursday-Saturday this week for three of them with USC traveling to face both Arizona schools.....if USC gets swept, then the Trojans become big time bubble fodder.....but if USC can go on the road and wins out or split, they will look solid and push whomever they beat further down the line.

It looks like with three teams locked up and five bids coming their way, that the final at larges from this league wont be determined until the conference tourney

 

[Toledo Prophet]

I like trying to figure out how many teams from each conf will go. I think Big E gets in the most teams.

SEC - 5
ACC - 6
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 6
Pac 10 - 7
Big E - 8

Any thoughts on the smaller conf?

I can see each league you have listed receiving one less bid that you propose.....except the Big 10which will get four unless OSU or even Minny goes on a major surge down the stretch and the SEC, which is locked into five bids. Kentucky may make it six bids, or they might steal a fellow league member's bid in the process.

Hard to believe less than 8 bids for the Big East, but Villanova and Sryacuse just have not done enough yet to merit a bid, and I am not sure either will do enough down the stretch.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

For those looking tonight to chat brackets, bubbles and upcoming league tourney, lets look at ESPN's current field. Here are the at large teams seeded 7 or worse:

7: Wassau, Arizona, Pitt
8: Texas A/M, Baylor, Arkansas
9: St. Mary's, USC, Miss St, Oklahoma
10: Miami, UNLV, St. Joe, West Virginia
11: Florida, UMass, Maryland
12: Arizona St, Ohio St, New Mexico

Which of these teams do you see missing the field? Who do you see taking their place?

Can we say that any of the above at large bids are secure? Probably not.

Like I mentioned, we are set up to have one of more exciting finishes to the regular season and league tournies than we have seen in years. This is very much like a playoff chase right now.

 

[fla]

Which puts the baby Gators in a must win situation tonight. They figure to split at home with Miss State and Tennessee and then UK in Lexington in anyone's guess. I think Donovan will have them ready.

Good luck.

 

[gjn23]

Pac 10-7 teams?? Really?:shrug:
Pac 10 should only get 5 unless you think Cal and Arizona get in. Both teams unimpressive

5 might be right for the conf but.....ummm, arizona is all but in with 1 more win (and they might get osu twice to try and get that 1 win)

with the #1 sos, #1 ooc sos, #14-20 rpi, and from the #1-3 rpi conf, + missing bayless for 4 games and wise for 9 games (starting backcourt) there is no way they are out unless they drop 5 straight (and even then they would be on the bubble)

asu is the team that needs to worry......their record and conf record looks good...BUT....their resume overall sucks....should they lose this week to sc/ucla (very likely) they would be on the outside looking in come monday

cal/ore overall #'s are similar to asu but they are below them in the conf.....ore needs to win out (and they might vs osu/ua/asu at home) while cal has the wash schools and the la schools...expect more losses.....plus ore traditionally plays welll in the conf tourney...with a 3-0 finish and a few wins in the conf tourney i could see them as the 6th team over asu....getting 7 in might be too hard at this point.

 

[Houseman]

I agree Ucla, Usc, Stan, Wash St, AZ are in. ASU needs an upset in the tourny. Org is on the hotseat. But the quality of play in that league has to be considered in the picking of the 64.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Huge, Huge losses last night by Arizona, Arizona St, St. Joe's, Wake Forest and Cal.

Arizona now faces basically a must-win game at home tomorrow vs UCLA.

As far as St Joe goes.......the A-10 has been about as competitive and good as its been in recent years, yet these teams keep knocking each other off....most of the year its been assumed they would get 4 bids.

Now, with this bad loss by the Hawks, the total collapse of URI and Dayton, you have to wonder if the league can maintain its stauts as a multi bid league.

UMass appears to have an easy slate down the stretch, but the way these teams have been so up and down, you cant count on anything......again, it looks like another league where there will be a ton of at large ramifications during the conference tournament.

These next two weeks will be a blast.

 

[gjn23]

Huge, Huge losses last night by Arizona, Arizona St, St. Joe's, Wake Forest and Cal.

Arizona now faces basically a must-win game at home tomorrow vs UCLA.

As far as St Joe goes.......the A-10 has been about as competitive and good as its been in recent years, yet these teams keep knocking each other off....most of the year its been assumed they would get 4 bids.

Now, with this bad loss by the Hawks, the total collapse of URI and Dayton, you have to wonder if the league can maintain its stauts as a multi bid league.

UMass appears to have an easy slate down the stretch, but the way these teams have been so up and down, you cant count on anything......again, it looks like another league where there will be a ton of at large ramifications during the conference tournament.

These next two weeks will be a blast.

losing to sc wasnt good (but i expected it) but how is the ucla game a must win?????

arizona is going to get killed by ucla......AND still very likely to make the tourney as long as they beat osu on the road next thursday (even if they lose at oregon)

look around this year......there are plenty of college basketball teams that suck (name teams in the big-10/acc/sec after the first 4 in each conf that are any good or locks for the tourney.......there really arent 32 teams better than arizona (with their entire resume even at 18-14) that will get a bid.

 

[Houseman]

No question, AZ is in. 2 reasons.

1. Strength of Sched.
2. Screwed last year big time

Cal/ASU is a different story.

 

[gjn23]

No question, AZ is in. 2 reasons.

1. Strength of Sched.
2. Screwed last year big time

Cal/ASU is a different story.

not sure how arizona was screwed last year or how it would make a difference in getting a selection this year?

cal has no chance

asu is in a MUST win vs sc on sat

ore still has an outside chance, but needs to finish up 3-0 (vs osu, ua, asu) to have that chance.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

losing to sc wasnt good (but i expected it) but how is the ucla game a must win?????

arizona is going to get killed by ucla......AND still very likely to make the tourney as long as they beat osu on the road next thursday (even if they lose at oregon)

look around this year......there are plenty of college basketball teams that suck (name teams in the big-10/acc/sec after the first 4 in each conf that are any good or locks for the tourney.......there really arent 32 teams better than arizona (with their entire resume even at 18-14) that will get a bid.

Maybe "must win" is a bit hyperbolic....but for the teams on the bubble, just about every game they play this time of year is a "must win."

But, lets look specifically at Arizona. Say, they lose tomorrow, win at OSU and lose at OU, as you kinda sorta forecasted.....they drop to 7th in the Pac 10 with an 8-10 league mark...they will have closed the season 3-7 in their last 10.....good news, they get a lay up against OSU in the 7-10 first round Pac 10 game, but then very well will lose to Stanford or even UCLA in their next game.

That is 4-8 in their last 12 with two wins vs OSU, perhaps the worst club amongst the power conference teams.

I would not want to take my chances with the committee in that case....and while their schedule was tough, are they really going to get a lot of love for those wins vs Illinois and Tamu (who I think is going to nose dive down the stretch). The Cats lost at home to the last place team in the ACC. I also do not think we'll see teams with a losing conference record get an invite. Its possible, but again not a situation you want to put yourself in.

But, from my vantage point, everything changes with a Big W tomorrow. They likely will finish no worse than .500 in league play, which is huge. They will get a better seed in the Pac 10 tourney, where a win in a 4/5 or 3/6 game would look a lot better than a win in a 7/10 game followed by a loss. But, c'mon with all these teams on the bubble, not many other teams will be able to say they took down a top-5 like UCLA in the season's final 8 days.

This is not an elimination situation, so in that regard tomorrow is not 'must win.' But, their path to an at large bid becomes so much easier tomorrow with a W as opposed to an L, so much so that they almost have to win tomorrow, or else face the prospect of having some serious work to do headed into the league tourney.

If they play tomorrow like they did last night, there will be a lot of talk about the Wildcats missing the field.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.