Bracketology Thread

[Houseman]

Ohio St???? I say no.
Dayton?
Nova?

 

[gsp]

I just looked at a few conf today. The SEC will have five (that should be in) and maybe 1 more because it's the SEC. ACC has only three (tsbi) but will get at least one or two more (see above), the Big E has 6 and might get more. The Big 10 is everyone's fav and will get more than they should and keep a couple of good teams out. The top three are Wisc, Ind, and Purdue. These three have played 8 what I consider good teams. Their combined records are 3-5 and none have winning records against outside good teams. By comparision, both Wisc and Ind have the same record as Vanderbilt who all the big time announcers talk about their weak pre-con schedule and are ranked above Van. Van has beat three teams who are currently #1 in their confer. and hasn't lost to anyone other that Ken who was not ranked at the time. Another team that gets no respect is Wash St. All they do is keep winning me money like last night. 4 of their 6 loses are to two teams. Last night they got revenge against one of the other teams with a 21 point win on the road. I like Louisville out of the big E. Gtown is over rated. If you liike fav in the NCAA stick with the top teams in the ACC, SEC, and top three in the PAC 10. That is, if the lines aren't way out of kilter. I look for some of the lesser known schools to make a good showing in the tourn.

Good luck to all of us in the NCAA

 

[gjn23]

Maybe "must win" is a bit hyperbolic....but for the teams on the bubble, just about every game they play this time of year is a "must win."

But, lets look specifically at Arizona. Say, they lose tomorrow, win at OSU and lose at OU, as you kinda sorta forecasted.....they drop to 7th in the Pac 10 with an 8-10 league mark...they will have closed the season 3-7 in their last 10.....good news, they get a lay up against OSU in the 7-10 first round Pac 10 game, but then very well will lose to Stanford or even UCLA in their next game.

That is 4-8 in their last 12 with two wins vs OSU, perhaps the worst club amongst the power conference teams.

I would not want to take my chances with the committee in that case....and while their schedule was tough, are they really going to get a lot of love for those wins vs Illinois and Tamu (who I think is going to nose dive down the stretch). The Cats lost at home to the last place team in the ACC. I also do not think we'll see teams with a losing conference record get an invite. Its possible, but again not a situation you want to put yourself in.

But, from my vantage point, everything changes with a Big W tomorrow. They likely will finish no worse than .500 in league play, which is huge. They will get a better seed in the Pac 10 tourney, where a win in a 4/5 or 3/6 game would look a lot better than a win in a 7/10 game followed by a loss. But, c'mon with all these teams on the bubble, not many other teams will be able to say they took down a top-5 like UCLA in the season's final 8 days.

This is not an elimination situation, so in that regard tomorrow is not 'must win.' But, their path to an at large bid becomes so much easier tomorrow with a W as opposed to an L, so much so that they almost have to win tomorrow, or else face the prospect of having some serious work to do headed into the league tourney.

If they play tomorrow like they did last night, there will be a lot of talk about the Wildcats missing the field.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

couple things

if arizona finished at 8-10 they likely wouldnt finish solo in 7th and might still be in a tie for 5th...if they did get the 7 seed AND beat osu again in the conf tourney, it would only help their at large chances rather than finish 8-10 and get the 6 seed and lose to wsu/usc

as for teams not making the tourney unless they have winning records in their conf....sounds good, until you actually review the landscape...the pac-10might then only draw 4 teams into the tourney??? some crap team from the big 10/12/sec/acc should be selected ahead of arizona because they finished above .500 in their conf (say an ohio state)

no way

the selection comittee will look at overall records, sos, rpi, ooc sos, road wins before they look at conf record/finish (and usually dont even care about that)

would i feel more secure if arizona beats ucla....of course......would i feel more secure if arizona beats oregon as well...of course....but i still think they are on the right side of the bubble line with their overall numbers put up vs OTHER AT LARGE TEAMS if we only beat osu

 

[Toledo Prophet]

gjn23: All good points. Just to clarify, I am not advocating that only .500 or better conference records should qualify. But, I do think that over the years, the selection committee has begun to trend towards that as a way to begin eliminating teams with similar resumes. Fair or not, it would be a stigma on Arizona's candidacy that might keep it out of the tournament. I'd love to know how many sub .500 league teams have netted at large bids in recent years. I'll see if I can look that up, but I guess its only 1 or 2 a year. Those teams had to have stood out somehow. Arizona might stand out too, we will see.

Kentucky could be 12-4 in the SEC. There's talk about SIU now that they're winning ore than 10 league games again. ASU, in their own league, could be .500 with a sweep of the Cats in hand. Syracuse and Pitt as .500 or better in the Big East. Oklahoma at .500 or better in the Big 12. Those, and more, will be the teams AU would be up against.

As far as the scenarios both of us are proposing, it is a worst case scenario for Arizona. They probably have the chops to play well enough to avoid that worst case and render this whole discussion pointless. Would it surprise anyone if they lost by 20 tomorrow and then swept the Oregon trip? It shouldn't.

I would also add if there is a league to merit an at large for a sub .500 team, it would be the Pac 10. Clearly the #2 league in the land (its not #1 due to the sheer size of the Big East), but its teams play the hardest league schedules. A true round robin. It classic and it we've been watching pac 10 showdowns for a solid two months now. Some of these bubble teams will have had to only play the elite teams of their league once, while Arizona and the other Pac 10 teams all played their fellow winning teams twice.

I guess I have my own personal definition of a "Must Win" for college basketball teams. If you are on the bubble, its March and a top-5 team is coming into your own gym, then its a Must Win.

Either way it will be a game with high stakes between two rivals in March. It'll be fun and good luck to your Cats! :toast:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

In other topics,

We have three big east bubble teams on tv right now with pitt, s'cuse and wva.

The Orange need this win badly over Pitt. Boheim said he does not feel that his tea would be in the tourney today. He also said it would be the toughest year ever for the committee. Syracuse closes out at Seton Hall and home vs Marquette.

Pitt and WVA play on Big Monday. So, if both lose today, then the loser of their game on Monday might need a solid run in the big east tourney to get an at large. They do both have winnable finales with Pitt hosting Depaul and WVA going to St Johns.


It'll be an interesting second half for these teams today as well as final week. This Pitt-Orange game can go either way right now. Its been fun to watch. Not sure if WVA can battle back and push Uconn.

 

[Houseman]

I think KY or FL will be in the play in game. We will see who wins this week when they play.

If AZ wins this thing today, or even keeps it close, can we agree that they are in?

Ohio St. XXXXXXXXXoutXXXXXXXXX

 

[Houseman]

SEC
TN
Vandy
Ark
Miss St
FL/Ky

Maybe the looser of the KY/FL game this week will get a play in spot.

Big East (7)
ACC (6)
Big 12 (6)
Pac-10 (7)
SEC (5)
Big Ten (4)
Conference USA (3)
Mountain West (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)
West Coast (2)