Preview & outright plays:
If Southern Hills had not played as tough as most players had expected, then they have another chance to savor those tough conditions this week. This event regularly plays either the week before or the week after the US Open and its major setup is exemplified by the fact that 18 of the 30 different champions have won a major championship with the most common, the US Open, won by 13 of them. The event this year is boosted by Tiger's entry for only the 2nd time, though Mark Brooks is a predictable withdrawal.
The course is very short by pro standards T 6,779 yards, though with tee movements it could reach the 7,000 mark. But as with any US Open-style course, it is not the length that matters. The greens as fast as the pros will face this year and will be hard to hold. At just 4,300 square feet, the greens are amongst the smallest on the PGA Tour. With the narrowness of the fairways and the hilly terrain, this could read as a description of a US Open course.
With an injury that will not be suited to the hills of Westchester, Tiger is avoided at very short odds. The three selections instead are Sergio Garcia, David Duval and Paul Azinger. Garcia finished one-shot out of the playoff between Paulson and Duval last year, but that it is also a sign of how far he has come since then. He had birdied six of the first ten holes to take the lead, only to continue attacking the course and paid the penalty. He shows much more maturity in his game, despite his failings on Sunday, and is easily selected again for another US Open-type event. His short game and his preference for very fast greens make him a likely contender this week.
Duval did at least make the play-off last year - the third in the last three years - only to lose on the 4th extra hole by three-putting. His putting remains a concern, but this is no putting contest. This is a shot-maker's course and that is his strength. He sees the US Open as his best chance of a major and this should be a good course for him; he had finished 10th the previous year. On a tough and playing well despite the poor weekend last week, he should challenge for longer this week.
Finally, Azinger has not had much success at Westchester lately and he missed the event last year, but he did have two top-3 finishes in the early 1990s and played extremely well last week on a course that did not suit his customary fade. With top-5 finishes in his last two events and top-15 in his last five, Zinger is certainly one of the form horses at the moment and of the past two seasons. In the Sagarin ratings based on the last twelve months, Zinger is ranked the 4th best player in the world and only just behind Mickelson and Singh. Good value at the projected odds.
Outright plays:
Sergio Garcia to win 20/1 e.w. @
Sports.com
David Duval to win 18/1 e.w. @
Victor Chandler or
Sports.com
Paul Azinger to win 40/1 @
Stanley
