Buick Invitational

Stanley

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Outright play (1 unit):

Rocco Mediate to finish in the top-four 10/1 @ SIA
SIA tend to copy the William Hill golf lines and the odds of 40/1 on Mediate to win are simply wrong. He is generally 25/1 everywhere else. His history on this course may not be pretty, but he last played at Torrey Pines in 1998 and his game has improved significantly since then. His average rounds were 70.40 in 2002 and 69.97 in 2001; but lower than in any other year on Tour. His current scoring average this year, though, is 68.33 with two top-5 finishes in three events. Free of injury, he is playing extremely well. Although he has won events in three of the last four seasons, the place-only option is preferred at SIA at these odds.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Just a weather note. They had some rain yesterday at Torre Pines and some form of precipitation is called for through friday.

http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USCA0565

Poanna greens get very spongey!

Nices odds on Rocco Stan :)
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Course setup from local paper

Rough: PGA Tour agronomist Tom Brown carries a putter in his golf cart, but he swears he's not practicing as he rides around the courses looking for trouble spots. Brown uses the handle of the putter to measure the rough. It's marked with tape in 2-, 3-and 4-inch increments. Brown said the Torrey rough on Thursday measured 4 inches. And that's what the pros will find if they miss fairways this week. Allen said some areas are severe, such as the usual spots in the landing areas of the South's par-4 fifth and par-5 13th. If the rough stays at 4 inches, it will be the longest it's been for the Buick since 1996.

Fairways: Dearie said the average width of the fairways is 28 to 30 yards for this year's Buick. They're maintained at 7/16ths of an inch high. How does that compare to what Torrey regulars see throughout the year? "We keep them 38 to 40 yards wide," Allen said. "It's a pace-of-play issue. The stars can handle the tighter fairways."

Divot Patrol: Each year, Miguel Castillo, a starter at Torrey Pines, leads a crew of volunteers that fixes divots with a mix of mulch, soil, sand and seed before the tournament and each day after play. It takes six to seven days for the seeds to germinate and begin growing in the divots. On Friday morning, Castillo was joined by volunteers Chuck Perpich, who's been fixing divots since the 1960s; brothers Mike and Jim Tilley; and men's club members George Randolph and Mike Benton. This year, more soil has been added to the mix. Too much sand in the divot mix makes for a sandy lie, or a mini-sand trap, in the middle of the fairway.

Bunkers: The PGA requires 4 inches of sand in every bunker, and it's checked before and during the tournament. That's 77 bunkers on the South. "The Tour wants consistency throughout the course," Allen said. Dearie said the new bunkers designed by Jones aren't high-faced and are easier to maintain.

Greens: The greens registered 9 on Allen's Stimpmeter Thursday. That's "medium-fast" on the Stimpmeter, an aluminum bar device invented nearly 70 years ago by Edward. S. Stimpson. The average distance of three balls rolled in two opposite directions from the Stimpmeter bar equals the green speed. "We can get them to 10 or 11 overnight," he said. The North Course has poa annua greens, while the South has Penncross, a "creeping bentgrass." Poa annua tends to get bumpy later in the day, while the Penncross greens stay smoother. Players said the South greens were more consistent last year, but slower than the North greens.

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Stan would you or anyone know where I could find reference chart that show roster of players and state they originate from?
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

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one outright to place @ 5dimes (5places)1 unit
Sutherland @ 13/1

Good course form(3 top 5's last 5 years),however prior to course being revamped,decent current form with 3 cuts in 4 events and a couple of top 15's. May straggle in for a place.
 

Stanley

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Adding (1 unit):

Bob Estes to finish in the top-four 11/1 @ Olympic
Siding with a player who is definitely a place-only proposition. He had a run of top-10 finishes at the end of last season and was the best player bar Els at the Mercedes Championships, his only start of the season. He finished top of the driving accuracy and greens in regulation stats that week, but couldn't buy a putt. As a 40/1 selection it was painful to watch! With the South course at Torrey Pines toughened up last year for a U.S. Open bid, he had his best finish here with a top-5 finish. Would have like the extra place, but these are generous odds for someone who gets himself into contention so frequently.
 

bettingmad

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I don't really like match bets and usually they tie..... but are these a couple of shoo ins at Sporting Odds???

10/11 Estes to beat Appleby
Estes has solid course form and should at least make the top 20 while Appleby although finishing 2nd last week in Oz was a bit in and out and played in the wind and now has to travel. His one visit here was a missed cut in 2001

8/11 Tataurangi to beat Smith
Tataurangi is a lot more consistent these days 6 top 20's in last 8.
Smith is poor lately with mc-61-60

They both finished 18th here last year....
 

Stanley

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Adding (1 unit):

Chris Riley to win 33/1 e.w. @ SIA and Easybets
Odds are not really short enough to consider place-only, but there is good reason to support Riley this week. He is very much a local player having been born in the San Diego area, the home of this event and Californian players do have a particularly good record in this event. He has achieved two top-10 and one top-20 finish in four previous visits and he is a vastly improved player nowadays. The move to a more U.S. Open format should also suit the player with the best short game on Tour, so there is every reason to expect him to repeat the top-10 finishes he achieved in the two events in Hawaii last month.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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72 holes @ B&W all -111 (Ties lose)

Langer over Baddeley
Haas over Omeara
Lewis over Perez
Toms over Howell

adding an outright to place @ Oly
Riley 8/1
Agree with Stan. Cal connection very strong in this event with 8 out of last 11 winners having ties there.

Will reserve any other outrights for in running.
 

steved

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hoping aformentioned deviations do not affect Sutherland long-term and he returns to historical liking for this course..gets first 0.5 ew at 66/1 (BSquare)

second is Forsman at 125/1 (VChandler) 0.5 ew...as low as 66/1 with some books...expectation is that series of top 20 top 30 placings is improved upon this week...
 

rrc

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My book is offering....

My book is offering....

Lowest round o/u 64 1/2
Winning total o/u 274 1/2

Any thoughts ????
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1 unit):

Stuart Appleby to beat Aaron Baddeley -122 @ Centrebet
Opposing Baddeley who withdrew from last week's event citing fatigue as the reason. He had played three straight weeks, but the loss to Els in the Sony Open had obviously taken a lot out of him as he missed the next two cuts. With the weather forecast none too pleasant, this should also work against Baddeley who gave up on his European Tour exemption in 2000-01 because he disliked the weather conditions in Europe. Appleby did play in Australia last week, but he will have gained rather than lost almost a day in the flight to California and he did play well in the ANZ Championship.

Luke Donald to beat Aaron Baddeley -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Top-20 in two of his three starts this year and in this event last year, Donald looks far more consistent and in the better form than the Australian. He will also be more at ease with the weather conditions this week.

Jeff Sluman to beat Aaron Baddeley +105 @ Intertops
Sluman is also much more consistent than Baddeley. His last missed cut was eight months ago - a run that has spawned 11 top-25 finishes in 17 starts - and he has never missed the cut in 11 previous visits to Torrey Pines. The moves to toughen the South course will only suit Sluman even more.

Jay Haas to beat Mark O'Meara -111 @ BetandWin
O'Meara's form in this event is almost as impressive as in the AT&T, but Haas has started the season in even more impressive form. He followed a top-25 finish in the Phoenix Open with a runners-up spot in the Bob Hope Classic, both times finishing ahead of O'Meara. His form at Torrey Pines is chequered, but with O'Meara only making one cut in three this year, a mid-table finish should suffice.

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Rory Sabbatini -120 @ BetInternet
Both in good form at the moment with top-30 finishes for both players in each event this year and a top-10 apiece, plus both have a top-5 finish on this course as well. Just feel that Maruyama is the more consistent player - he has made his three cuts here, whereas Sabbatini has made two of four - and is more likely to prosper on the South course with the move to a more U.S. Open setup and the inclement weather that is forecast. They are very different in terms of temperament.
 

kjls04202

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DTB;
I am only quoting Keith Elliot here " The South Course used to play 1.5 - 2 shots tougher than the North Course. That toughness differential has increased to 3.75 shots. This is a further indication of how the South Course has been toughened"
He quotes other indicatons of how tough the tournament has become.

Year Cut Mark Winning Score Players Under Par Under 280

2002 -1 -13 45 12
2001 -3 -19 80 47
2000 -2 -18 57 20
1999 -3 -22 68 34

Further Elliot Quotes
" The round one leaderboard therefore inevitably shows players who have played the easier North Course first. This year 11 of the top 12 players after round 1 had done so.
This is possibly important if you are looking to play and then hedge early on betfair.
However the final leaderboard showed that of the first 7, Olazabal,Lewis and woods played the easier course first. The other 4 played the harder course first.
I hope this helps a bit DTB.
Sorry my table did not quite work out.
 
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kjls04202

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I have had no luck with my outrights so far this year, though Sabbatini did finish high and had his chance last week, only to falter last round. This weeks tourney seems a minefield. I fancy if Calcaveccia could have a putting week he could go well. Chris Smith who has been playing poorly has an affinity with Buick sponsored events to an extent, and is another who could figure if his putter is hot. Snith played well on the course last year after the changes.
I am also looking for Patrick Moore who is 300/1 @ Powers( money back if cut missed) to claim a first placing. Moore comes out top on Stans course compatibilty chart and I feel that it is only a matter of time before he shows up big. Perhaps it will be in a lesser event though.
GOOD LUCK ALL.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Thank again Mr K.

Stan I read that comment on Badds saying he was tired after 3 events. Ole Quig on the Beards needs to give Badds some Geritol he uses playing 200+ straight events.:)
 

Anders

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Soft Aussie poofter, much better off backing the Kiwi hard men....nice to have another on the Tour too in Alker - and from Hamilton too :eek: :cool:

Outrights:

Mediate 40-1, Riley 33-1, Sabbatini 100-1.

Adding matchups:

Maruyama o Clarke -110
Forsman o Parnevik -111
Riley o Toms +110

GL all :)
 

Stanley

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Adding (1 unit):

Angel Cabrera to beat Alex Cejka -135 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Cejka who will probably need to take a break after this week. He has played every event for which he has been eligible to play and that means 16 rounds in four weeks and the last two weeks have been six-hour rounds in the pro-ams. His form has suffered as a result after a good showing in the Phoenix Open and he has shot over-par in his last four rounds. Neither player has any course form, but Cabrera comes into this event fresh from an extended layoff having finished the 2002 with four top-6 finishes, including a win in his home Open. He looks far more likely to be around at the weekend.



At least with Paul Casey we've found one sport with an English victory over these "Soft Aussie poofters" :eek: :lol:

But, of course, I had money on Appleby to beat Casey as well :(
 
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