CFL week 6

C

ChuckyTheGoat

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Dec 18, 2000
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Thx for the picks, boys.

Czech:

I think some of your perceptions of 1837 are wrong. Imho, he's one of the best cappers on this site. He doesn't toot his own horn, so maybe not everyone notices. He's in fact extremely generous w/ his picks and info. I've followed him on a lot of CFL/Auto Racing plays over the L2 years, and all he's done is win me $. If limited posting of info translates to more Greenbacks for us, I'm all for it.
 
K

Korn

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Brutal night so far.....

Ottawa only scores 8 in the first half and that was it..... Toronto goes on to romp them....

Then Sask loses in OT......

Now counting on Calgary and Crandell to save a horrific day....

GL
 
P

PerpetualCzech

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Feb 24, 2002
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Chucky,

I really don't have any perceptions of 1837 or his skills as a handicapper (except for the fact that he plays teasers :) ) and I'm sorry if somehow it looks like that. All I am doing is responding to requests by both him and Korn not to post info on the games until the prop lines come out. This strategy really hurts the effectiveness of the forum because it is then basically useless until a few hours before kickoff and I'm trying to stress to them that there is very little to gain from it (for example, they posted a play on Phillips/Pringle yesterday and the line has not moved yet).
 
kickserv

kickserv

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Thursday Results
---------------------

Ottawa vs. Toronto Over 51.0 .............confidence of 6.0..........Loss

Toronto -4.0 to beat Ottawa................confidence of 7.0.......WIN

BC Lions -2.5 to beat Calgary ($1.85)..confidence of 4.5........Loss

Hamilton -3.0 to beat Sask...................confidence of 7.5........Push



So........going into last game of the week:


Record on this forum (P/S and O/U).............12 wins 10 losses (55%)
*all odds are at $1.91*



still have:


"Confidence" scale goes from 1 to 10

1=worth a try
5=feel good
10=like betting on the sun coming up in the morning


Friday
-------

Edmonton +6.5 to beat Montreal ...................confidence of 8.5
 
K

Korn

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Well Calgary did it and so did Crandell..... still a losing day but coulda been worse...

Ottawa killed the day.... ML loss.... HT point loss... and killed the teaser..... Had too much riding on the expansion team tonight.... wasn't a smart idea....

2-4 -1.6 units today....... :(


PerpetualCzech.... so he plays teasers..... who cares.... if you look at his overall record of teasers he is in ++$$.... and thats what counts... correct?? And its not a few hours before the game... they are released the morning of the game or the day before.... so still plenty of time.... And about the Phillips/Pringle prop... yes we posted a play but its just a regular play.... 2 units for each of us... its not a 5 unit HUGE play or anything.... theres no major news about each of those players this week.... Unlike last week where we knew Phillips was injured but not many others did... and if we post that at the start of the week I can't see them putting up a prop like Phillips O/U 99.5 rushing yards.... Those are the kind of plays we are talking about that we will miss out on when posting early injury information....

GL
 
K

Korn

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Adding Montreal -5 2.2 to win 2.0...

Ricky Ray played great last week, but that was against a Pathetic BC team..... Montreal should be a bit more of a challenge to Ray...

GL
 
1837

1837

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Somewhere South of Quebec and North of Boston...
Indeed about Millington...:( He was truly very bad... His coaching staff started the game with the first 6 plays being a pass! Talk about confidence about your running game..... :rolleyes: Think we saw BC coach for the last time too. At halftime he was trying to find excuse about his team by saying Calgary isn't bad and so on... Then i knew my 2nd half wager on calgary was winner! :)

Thunderstrom right now here.. rain should be stopping before the end of the afternoon so we shouldn't have a wet field.
 
P

PerpetualCzech

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Montreal -4.5 Very Strong Play

All signs point to this play:

1) The most obvious: Montreal is the best team in the league and is playing at home. Their records are similar, but Montreal has a much better point differential (+55 vs. +12). Their offence gains 68 yards per game more than Edmonton (however, Edmonton gives up 31 yards fewer)

2) Injuries. Edmonton has 3 injuries to their defensive line and 1 WR and RB out. Very serious. Most of all though, they have a backup QB starting with only 1 game experience in the CFL! A nice start for Ricky Ray last week, but I don't put much weight on his performance at home against a crap BC team. On the road against a sellout montreal crowd will be a much different story.

3) Schedule strength. This is a good time of the year to look at schedule strength because enough games have been played to give a good sample space but there are still few enough to give significant differences (i.e. later in the season it will be much more even).

Montreal's opponents: BC, Tor, Sask, Cal, Winn
Edmonton's opponents: Cal, Ott, Tor, Sask, BC

Both have played 3 home games and 2 away games.

Edmonton has played only 1 quality team so far this year and got crushed by them. Nice edge to Montreal here.

This line is way off.
 
kickserv

kickserv

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adding one more play........


Record on this forum (P/S and O/U).............12 wins 10 losses (55%)
*all odds are at $1.91*


"Confidence" scale goes from 1 to 10

1=worth a try
5=feel good
10=like betting on the sun coming up in the morning


Friday
-------

Edmonton +6.5 to beat Montreal ...................confidence of 8.5

Edmonton/Montreal Under 53.0......................confidence of 7.5
 
P

PerpetualCzech

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hawkeye,

Playing teasers is a serious mistake in the CFL, but even more so is playing teasers in the same game (in any league). This is because one side of the teaser is guaranteed to hit which means that the other side has more of a chance to lose.

Another way of putting it is: "When you tease teams playing each other, such that one must cover, that "must cover" comes at the expense of a lower probability that both cover" (Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong Pg 274)

If you like the game to go Under 53 then why are you making a bet that needs Over 40 as a requirement to hit??!!
 
H

hawkeye

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Jun 29, 2000
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for the hell of it--i know about wong's theory-but i've seen wong wrong before thats almost a tongue twister-gl to all--alos am liking monte to cover
 
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