Championship...

[ejthree]

I bet un 55.5 and happy to do it. Smitty pointed out their weakness , rush defense, Harbaugh outcoached Saban and see no reason why he won't here. Expect Penix to have less time of possesion and definetly a lil more pressure, that being said no doubt he's great and so are his receivers but if Michigan can have their 6-8 mins drives that will be the difference and Harbaugh knows this and has the type of team capable of this game plan. Will more than likely bet un 1st half also.. Input desired...

 

[Smitty]

I hate it, but we're probably gonna be opposite here. For one thing, just as a general rule, I can never bet a NC game under. Seems like they ALWAYS go over. But, to your point, UW is going to struggle to stop Michigan's ground game. While early on that may mean longer drives, eventually they'll start breaking off some long runs. Although, as I debate with myself, Corum is hardly an explosive runner. But when one team's strength lines up with the other team's weakness, that usually leads to some points.

The other side... I think Michigan's defense was really flattered by TERRIBLE o-line play by Alabama. If you watched carefully, you noticed that a lot of the QB pressure was simply from missed assignments. It was as if they had never seen a stunt before. Terrible communication. I don't think we'll see that from UW. And this will be the first legitimate pass offense UM has seen this year. Maybe they'll be fine, but they gotta prove to me they're up to it.

Also, the fact that Penix showed that he has brought back the run aspect of his game as he tries for the NC is huge. One more thing the defense needs to account for. We saw what Milroe was able to do with his legs against that defense. On a related note, Penix takes very few sacks. Unlike Milroe, he has excellent pocket presence.

All that said, I've been really, really bad on totals in the bowls. So, yeah, 7-3 final.

 

[ejthree]

I hate it, but we're probably gonna be opposite here. For one thing, just as a general rule, I can never bet a NC game under. Seems like they ALWAYS go over. But, to your point, UW is going to struggle to stop Michigan's ground game. While early on that may mean longer drives, eventually they'll start breaking off some long runs. Although, as I debate with myself, Corum is hardly an explosive runner. But when one team's strength lines up with the other team's weakness, that usually leads to some points.

The other side... I think Michigan's defense was really flattered by TERRIBLE o-line play by Alabama. If you watched carefully, you noticed that a lot of the QB pressure was simply from missed assignments. It was as if they had never seen a stunt before. Terrible communication. I don't think we'll see that from UW. And this will be the first legitimate pass offense UM has seen this year. Maybe they'll be fine, but they gotta prove to me they're up to it.

Also, the fact that Penix showed that he has brought back the run aspect of his game as he tries for the NC is huge. One more thing the defense needs to account for. We saw what Milroe was able to do with his legs against that defense. On a related note, Penix takes very few sacks. Unlike Milroe, he has excellent pocket presence.

All that said, I've been really, really bad on totals in the bowls. So, yeah, 7-3 final.

Smitty appreciate your input as always, could these teams be just a little hung over from high energy output from semi's , possible ,so maybe under the first half may be a better option.

 

[LordofBalls]

Wash will definitely have better jpass protection (OL play) than Bama did... and I believe in Penix and his quick reads and excellent WRs and they will move the ball down the field..
On the other side, I believe Mich will have success vs Wash defense as most all of Washington's opponents (with good QBs) were able to score (they were just outscored).. just my thoughts.

I'm leaning Mich ML and Wash +4.5... not exactly firm yet lol

 

[TurdofDoom]

Smitty appreciate your input as always, could these teams be just a little hung over from high energy output from semi's , possible ,so maybe under the first half may be a better option.

I like that as a first half play better. Good chance both teams start tight and conservative.

 

[Smitty]

I think Michigan's defense was really flattered by TERRIBLE o-line play by Alabama. If you watched carefully, you noticed that a lot of the QB pressure was simply from missed assignments. It was as if they had never seen a stunt before. Terrible communication.

well, a fella by the name of nick saban agrees with my assessment...

"I don't think it was Jalen Milroe's, necessarily, all his fault," Saban said. "The first play of the game, we're supposed to be sliding that way, tackle slides, guard doesn't, quarterback gets blown up. Third play of the game, they pressured us and we didn't pass off the game inside. Once your quarterback starts getting affected a little bit, even though it's not necessarily his fault completely, it's tough to play. We got to the point in the game where we didn't have a lot of confidence in being able to throw the ball. Not because of our skill guys but our inability to protect."

UW's o-line is surprisingly young (3 juniors, 1 sophomore, and 1 RS freshman), but they had a great year. As someone else mentioned, they won the Joe Moore Award for the Most Outstanding Offensive Line Unit in College Football. While they certainly haven't seen a line as physical as Michigan's, I'm hoping they'll be better prepared than Alabama was.

And, of course, their ace-in-the-hole is Penix, who has a knack for avoiding sacks. Michigan's secondary doesn't usually need to cover guys very long. Just a few seconds and then the pressure usually gets there.

 

[ejthree]

well, a fella by the name of nick saban agrees with my assessment...

"I don't think it was Jalen Milroe's, necessarily, all his fault," Saban said. "The first play of the game, we're supposed to be sliding that way, tackle slides, guard doesn't, quarterback gets blown up. Third play of the game, they pressured us and we didn't pass off the game inside. Once your quarterback starts getting affected a little bit, even though it's not necessarily his fault completely, it's tough to play. We got to the point in the game where we didn't have a lot of confidence in being able to throw the ball. Not because of our skill guys but our inability to protect."

UW's o-line is surprisingly young (3 juniors, 1 sophomore, and 1 RS freshman), but they had a great year. As someone else mentioned, they won the Joe Moore Award for the Most Outstanding Offensive Line Unit in College Football. While they certainly haven't seen a line as physical as Michigan's, I'm hoping they'll be better prepared than Alabama was.

And, of course, their ace-in-the-hole is Penix, who has a knack for avoiding sacks. Michigan's secondary doesn't usually need to cover guys very long. Just a few seconds and then the pressure usually gets there.

One of my friends took +4 1/2 in a acct, hoping to see more show up.Wait and see at this point I guess. If Mich controls tempo and that can be difficult they win but if not, I can see this a ez win for the Huskies...I guess doesn't take a fn rocket scientist to figure that out...

 

[TurdofDoom]

well, a fella by the name of nick saban agrees with my assessment...

"I don't think it was Jalen Milroe's, necessarily, all his fault," Saban said. "The first play of the game, we're supposed to be sliding that way, tackle slides, guard doesn't, quarterback gets blown up. Third play of the game, they pressured us and we didn't pass off the game inside. Once your quarterback starts getting affected a little bit, even though it's not necessarily his fault completely, it's tough to play. We got to the point in the game where we didn't have a lot of confidence in being able to throw the ball. Not because of our skill guys but our inability to protect."

UW's o-line is surprisingly young (3 juniors, 1 sophomore, and 1 RS freshman), but they had a great year. As someone else mentioned, they won the Joe Moore Award for the Most Outstanding Offensive Line Unit in College Football. While they certainly haven't seen a line as physical as Michigan's, I'm hoping they'll be better prepared than Alabama was.

And, of course, their ace-in-the-hole is Penix, who has a knack for avoiding sacks. Michigan's secondary doesn't usually need to cover guys very long. Just a few seconds and then the pressure usually gets there.

I agree with one caveat …Washington has faced a D Line as physical as Michigan. It happened last week and they handled them. Michigan might be a little better on the edge but there’s no way they play better in the A and B gap than Texas.

 

[LordofBalls]

1 other factor in the line not mentioned so far.. East Coast bias. 2/3 of the population is East of the Mississippi, and don't watch night gms played on the West Coast very often.. so they haven't seen a lot of Wash gms this year.
It's natural to assume that bettors will play on the team they root for geographically...
Line may be tilted slightly towards East Coast/Midwest... Michigan.

While I believe most of the country was able to watch Wash v Tex, they had to stay up past midnight if they watched it all..
-they've probably seen Michigan play 7-10 times, maybe more. And Michigan has been good all year (again), but in a down year for the Big 10, hasn't played very many quality offenses.
YES, their Def Coord was able to dial up some stunts/blitzes that Ala did not handle very well and Ala took sacks, and had subpar QB play all day.
I don't expect that to happen v Wash.. not to say they won't sack Penix, but better protection, better QB, better WRs, probably better game plan too.

I'm in on 1 parlay so far... total went up to 56.5 (bought 1)

Wash +4.5/OV 55.5<<< 336/791

at this moment in time, I'd say I believe in the offenses (the OVER) more than 1 side or another.. if anything, I think Mich will drop so I wanted Over 4

 

[Smitty]

I agree with one caveat …Washington has faced a D Line as physical as Michigan. It happened last week and they handled them. Michigan might be a little better on the edge but there’s no way they play better in the A and B gap than Texas.

duh. how the fuck did i forget the game from 3 days earlier? excellent point.

one other point... if UW gets ahead enough where michigan has to throw, game over. if michigan gets the lead... UW is more than capable of coming from behind.

 

[TurdofDoom]

duh. how the fuck did i forget the game from 3 days earlier? excellent point.

one other point... if UW gets ahead enough where michigan has to throw, game over. if michigan gets the lead... UW is more than capable of coming from behind.

Thats the real danger for Michigan. If they come out tight and turn it over a time or two it’s over. Penix got up for the big game. I think he does it again.

 

[ejthree]

I don’t like it when most are disregarding Michigan as per Alabama game. I have a small wager on Wash but waiting on hopefully late info before increasing or getting off my current wager. Either are capable of wining and I promise either are capable of winning handily. Should be a good one…

 

[Smitty]

I don’t like it when most are disregarding Michigan as per Alabama game. I have a small wager on Wash but waiting on hopefully late info before increasing or getting off my current wager. Either are capable of wining and I promise either are capable of winning handily. Should be a good one…

oh, absolutely. i said before the playoff games that none of the final 4 were standout teams. no result on monday would be a surprise.

 

[ejthree]

Staying with Wash+4.5
adding ML +195
un 55.5
GL Madjackers...