Chrysler Classic

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes
Furyk -110 over Love @ Sportingbet

Taking Mr Consistancy over Jeckle-Hyde
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Choi +100 over Appleby @ Skybet (ties lose)

Appleby another Jeckle-Hyde
Both prior wins on tour preceded by cut,in fact in 98 he was cut 10 of 22 events this year cut (wd)in almost 1/3 of events. String 4 good events in my view would be stretching his limits.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

K.J. Choi to win 20/1 e.w. @ BlueSq
Cast-iron selection at this price. Has finished in the top-7 in each of his last four starts, including one win (German Masters) and in this event in the last two years. Doesn't come much clearer than that!

David Toms to win 22/1 e.w. @ UKBetting
Toms' course form is nowhere near as impressive, but this is a tough course that rewards players who put the ball on the fairway and have good ball-striking skills. Toms fits that description and may be able to perform better now that the event has moved from its April schedule position to October. He has shown his best form in short bursts this season, winning twice and was 5th in the American Express Championship in his last outing. Should be no more than 16/1 against this field.

Robert Allenby to win 28/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and Victor Chandler
Allenby is another whose course form is not particularly good - one visit and one missed cut in 1999 - but he did display much better form than this last week en route to a top-5 finish before he made a complete mess of the last hole (and cost me a matchup wager!). He is repeatedly getting himself into contention and would not be 4th in the important 'All-Round Ranking' if he were not in good form this season. This price looks generous for this class of player.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will go with one outright to place intially and may peek at a few at cut as Oly had that prop up last week again for a pleasant change.

Jay Hass 17/1 to place @ 5dimes

Haas as always gets no respect despite have 6 top 5's in 23 events for a break even place return of just under 4/1,much below quoted 17/1.
Also this course was recently redone(Love participated) and greens all were revamped which should give credence to putting stats in which Haas is tied with Furyk at 15th. Also Hass finished in top 25 last year and playing MUCH better this year. Course has also been kind to the older generation with last 7 winners ave age of 39.--and he should have no excuse for poor start as he is 1st out of box Tursday.

Have three I will be looking at closely at cut that were considerations but place odds were not what I was hoping for.
Kelly-Byrd-Maru

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Robert Allenby to beat Frank Lickliter -120 @ William Hill
Lickliter's form has improved considerably in his last three starts - his previous top-20 finish had been six months prior to this return of form - but he has only finished ahead of Allenby once in that run and finished behind him last week. He has also missed the cut on both occasions he has played at Forest Oaks in the past five years, so every reason to side with the outright selection again.

Stewart Cink to beat Billy Andrade -110 @ SkyBet
Similar story here. Andrade's form has improved recently - last week's 8th place finish was his best result in over a year - but his recent course form is dire. Siding with the better player who has finished in the top-25 in each of the last three weeks.

Jim Furyk to beat Davis Love -115 @ WWTS
This line should be nearer -140. Furyk is the model of consistency this season, while Love has never been. He has won several times this season, but three of his last four finishes have been outside the top-25; Furyk has finished outside the top-25 three times in the whole of the 2003 season in U.S. events. With better course form as well, Furyk should be a much stronger favourite.
(available generally)

Jim Furyk to beat David Toms -125 @ Stan James
A hedge play on the outright selection, certainly, but also a recognition that Furyk is far more likely to win this event than Toms. This was reflected in the outright odds where Furyk's odds were half those of Toms, so the value in that market rested with Toms, but not here.

Jeff Sluman to beat Jesper Parnevik -110 @ BetInternet
Desperate times for Parnevik as he runs out of chances to maintain his playing privileges on this Tour. He did finish 5th in the 84 Lumber Classic of Pennsylvania last month, but it was very much the exception in a dire 2003 and he has since missed the cut once and finished 62nd in the other event. He has not played here since 2000 when he was a different player and the pressure should be too much for him to repeat his previous performances on this course. It will be a sad demise for a someone who was voted the most overrated player on Tour by his peers earlier this year.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding a couple 72 holes

Haas -105 over Funk @ Pinnacle
Byrd -105 over Lonard @ WSEX

Stat wise not too much difference,just feel Funk and Lonard regressing at conclusion of season. Not real valid reason but can't find any matches with players I want to fade.Was looking to fade Rocco as he looked in pain(back) last week and did wd in 3rd rd,figured his start here was solely as defending champ but have no matches,apparently books are concerned also.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding outright to place (top 4) @ Oly
Kelly 7.5/1

Giving up a spot but getting much better odds than 5 places available.
Kelly another Rodney Dangerfield. Only 2 players (Furyk and Perry) in this field with more top 10's.

 

[sports student]

2 man parlay 72 holes at bowmans

Huston -110 over Cink
Funk -120 over Lonard


pays 2.5-1. Have not had the time to put enough work into this that I should, so playing parlays to have a little action, but yet limiting my risk. Based on the overall combination of factors thru Stan's stats. Need to again get my offshore outs set up for golf and not for football/baseball etc. Good luck and keep up the good work on this site guys.

 

[Stanley]

Adding (1 unit unless stated):

Stephen Ames to beat Carl Paulson -125 @ Five Dimes [2 units]
I probably rate Ames more highly than he deserves, but I also think that Paulson is very opposable at the moment. He has missed four of his last six cuts and his h2h record against Ames is also very poor: 4-14-0 in the last year. A good chance this will be decided by Friday evening.

Kenny Perry to beat Rocco Mediate -140 @ Five Dimes
Opposing Mediate who was suffering with his bad last week and withdrew after 36 holes. Presumably, he has only made the long flight to North Carolina as he is defending champion. Perry has played very little since his blistering run of form from May to August, but would still give Mediate a tough match even if the latter were fully fit.

 

[crookycymru]

Guys,

I am looking for a link to a site that will list all the winners for the 2003 PGA tour this year to date. I dont want to have to click on different pages, but want them as a printable list.

Can anybody help??

I would really appreciate it...cheers

 

[Stanley]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=golf-m/sched/schedule.htm

 

[crookycymru]

Stanley,

Thanks a million......exactly what I was looking for.

I owe you one...check out the rugby thread and hope to put a winner or two your way

Thanks again.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

CC If you have time at some point you need to put up Rugby 101 format in your thread there. I have tried to follow and play some but can't grasp the gist of it and time zones drive me bizerk Usually by time I pick up your posts, the game is off or lines have moved substantially.

 

[crookycymru]

DTB,

Dont understand 100% what you mean. I can sort the time problems out for you, but what do you mean by 101 format??

Let me know as I would love to be able to help! If you saw a line change on the USA this morning, the seventeen was wiped by all bookies over here, as there was a major plunge on them...perhaps they were all reading the World Cup thread??

Also it would probably help if you let me know what books you deal with. If you want to e-mail me then do so, or even post your question in the thread itself.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I'll pose the questions over in "other sports" forum. Might be some other dummies like me to embarrassed to ask basic questions and your answers might benefit them also.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd @ 5 Dimes
Gamez -110 over Kendall

Early am vs late pm should have bout 8mph adv
Gamez also holds before cut adv and putting 6th/70th and 20th/74th respectively.

Noticed going thru tees that Armour and Cink appear to be non-runners

 

[lostinamerica]

Taking a stab -

Goeff Ogilvy(33/1) for 0.50* e.w (1-2-3-4) @ Bet365

Nice job last week, Stan. Your outright tip focused my eye on some winning matchup plays with Gronberg, starting with the second round. And GREAT job, DTB. 13-1 in matchups, mostly over 18 holes, certainly takes a bit of good fortune, but you were crushing them for the most part. But I don't think it's on a par with your form I recall from this spring when you went over 40 matchups without a single loss by more than one stroke.

Great stuff all around, as usual.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks LIA Some weeks you get good bounces some weeks bad an just hope they even out.

1st rd results 0-1
Gamez -110 over Kendall loss
Appears afternoon scores were better than morning but would not have made any difference,I liked the play regardless despite the loss.
For those that did not get to view course today,it has no rough but a few trees.

 

[lostinamerica]

2nd Round Matchup:

Baddeley(-120) over Lehman for 1* @ Bet365
This shapes up as a test run, as I foresee Baddeley as an outright selection next week, assuming he plays. In this crazy game, that can always mean that a missed cut is a happy result for today.

GL

 

[sports student]

2nd round at 5 dimes

Goosen -113 over Mediate/Hayes

not a bad matchup anyway but especially if Mediate has back problems

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

At the cut 1-0
Furyk/Love win
Pending
Haas/Funk 5 up
Byrd/Lonard 2 up
Choi/Appleby 1 up

Outrights Hass 8th Kelly current on bubble for cut

Computer probs at office this morning and couldn't pull scores or stats,hopefully it is corrected when I get there in morning.
Don't look like I'll get to look at Maru or Bryd in running as they sit in 1st and 5th. However have a little cheese in the till so won't be to disappointed if one hangs on,more upset that I couldn't find matches to oppose Rocco within my range as he wd'd again as last week.
Congrats to Stan on capitalizing and bad beat on Goose throwing in clinker on 3ball SS was a heads up play IMO despite outcome.